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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 3h

Excellent Stephen Bush piece on why Robert Jenrick would be a disastrous Conservative leader, and why his racism is bad for the whole country
ep.ft.com/permalink/em...

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 1d

Fitting that the first Yougov Con/LibDem tie should appear during a conference where the Conservatives seem to have again forgotten the LibDems exist.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 1d

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (5-6 October 2025)

Reform UK: 27% (-2 from 28-29 Sept)
Labour: 20% (-2)
Conservatives: 17% (+1)
Lib Dems: 17% (+2)
Greens: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d

This piece from @peterhyman.bsky.social is very good on why political parties need to focus less on crafting policy-based sound bites and press releases and more on making the argument for change
open.substack.com/pub/peterhym...

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d

But Bolt is ... Estonian

Nigel Farage is no Ramsay MacDonald: Comparing the Rise of Reform with the Rise of Labour

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

Political Quarterly @politicalquarterly.bsky.social · 1d

For Labour, a party system in which its principal rival is Reform would be a much worse political outcome for everything the party cares about than if the Conservatives retained their position, argues Ben Jackson, co-editor of the Political Quarterly.

politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/nigel-f...

It is hard not to suspect that arresting the rise of Reform could be beyond the powers of both current party leaders.

politicalquarterly.org.uk

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d

My thought too. Though I'd still hesitate to place an actual bet on that - the party has such a history of reinvention and such a ling track record of electoral success that it's hard to imagine them not coming back from this

Call to limit app driver numbers 'to protect London black cabs'

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d

It's hard to look at the rows of empty seats greeting Conservative "big hitters" addressing an unprecedentedly small conference hall and think the chances of Conservative survival as a major political force are anything but somewhere between low and zero

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d

Do we actually need traditional taxis any more, though? Frankly, the best thing about Uber, Bolt etc is no longer having to sit in the back of black cabs with an angry driver forcing his opinions down your throat, and paying a small fortune for the privilege

The number of black cab drivers has fallen by a third while private hire numbers double.

www.bbc.com

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 6d

More evidence that Labour are losing fewer voters to Reform than they are to the Greens and Lib Dems. Also, interestingly, Labour defectors to Reform are less likely to return than are Conservative defectors
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The story behind the polls

Who's changed their mind since the 2024 election and why?

British Politics' Midlife Crisis

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 7d

This fascinating, long and data-rich analysis from @benansell.bsky.social makes a simple point: Labour should be worrying a lot more about its loss of electoral support to the Lib Dems and Greens and a lot less about Reform
open.substack.com/pub/benansel...

Why British Parties Can't Make Peace with Their Actual Voters

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10d

They definitely have a very different approach to the integration issue to the UK - not so dissimilar to the UK approach of 50 years ago, of course. What's interesting about the Burn-Murdoch piece is that UK and other politicians are now so much further away from traditional views than their voters

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10d

This is a fascinating graph from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com , and it explains a lot about why immigration politics are the way they are in multiple countries

Weathervanes and Chancers

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d

Am I imagining it or has something changed for the worse at the Economist recently?

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d

I'd bet on Alex Massie being right that this summer will prove to have been as good as it gets for Reform. Right too in his complaints about the unseriousness of a chunk of the PLP (and A. Burnham)
open.substack.com/pub/alexmass...

And why it's time to start loving the bond market

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d

We can build a COVID vaccine in a matter of months, invent AI, and create the smartphone but ... it seems impossible for anyone to manufacture a sofa bed that's actually comfortable to sit on. Weird

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d

I agree. But we're now having a very different discussion than that implied by the headline!

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d

Sure, the politics are an issue, but the headline seems OTT. Perhaps the fault lies with the sub-editor though?

The new centre-left project 'to put wind in our sails'

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d

Another excellent and thoughtful Substack post from @peterhyman.bsky.social, this one using Maslow's Theory of Human Motivation to illustrate the mistake that the left makes in spurning the politics of aspiration
open.substack.com/pub/peterhym...

How a theory from eighty years ago can light the way to a new progressive politics of human potential.

Britain is slowly going bust

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d

"Britain is slowly going bust" trumpets The Economist, ludicrously. On its own admission, "belt-tightening needed to stabilise debts is about 2% of gdp, some of which is already budgeted for... By historical standards, it is not a demanding target"
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

Even with a huge majority and plenty of time, Labour is drifting towards a fiscal crisis

www.economist.com

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d

This @samfr.bsky.social post on the growing likelihood and possible implications of a Conservative implosion is fascinating - on the latter, as much for its discussion of the impact on the Lib Dems as on Reform and Labour
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

Last Rites

What happens if the Conservatives completely disintegrate?

Chartbook 409 Beyond the "Marshall Plan": China's solar boom as world-changing industrial policy.

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 18d

This is v good on China’s overwhelming role in the “opening of a new epoch of world economic history.” From @adamtooze.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/adamtooz...

In the first six months of 2025 China installed more than 250GW of solar power capacity.

The education divide that’s fuelling populism

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 20d

This is very good on some of the many ways that our scandalous neglect of the 55% of British kids who don't want to go to university is coming back to bite us. From @peterhyman.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/peterhym...

Without high status career pathways for all, we will not heal a divided Britain

Ed Davey Mocks Elon Musk After He Calls Him 'A Craven Coward'

Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 23d

This is something of a lost art in UK centre left/right politics - making an enemy of a person or group whose support you don't need but whose enmity helps define you in voters' eyes

Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 23d

Ed Davey has already got under Musk’s thin skin.

The pair's long-running feud continues.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 23d

Academic publishing is "a racket so audacious that if you pitched it as a business model, investors would laugh you out of the room. Yet for decades this scheme has siphoned billions from research budgets."
@wsj.com

Opinion | Academic Publishing Has Become a Racket

Scientists write and review papers without getting paid, and their institutions have to pay for access.

www.wsj.com