Though David’s own logic is “Stephen is clever so it must be him …”

But equally - is tying themselves to the baggage of Corbyn / an explicitly left-wing ideology actually helpful to Muslim community independents, many of whom functionally ran to the right of Labour on issues other than Gaza.

Honestly, who is looking at the West of England Mayoralty and thinking, I know, the solution to the winner getting elected on 25% of the vote is to force ordinary punters to guess which of the top 5 will come first and second?

It is worse than FPTP (inarguable IMO) - you have to guess who is in the top 2, and if you guess wrong then you might actually end up voting *against* your preferred candidate.

Not even really clear of the benefit to Gaza Indies in tying themselves to this project: not as though they were elected on classic left wing appeal (even more so for some who narrowly lost - look at the B’ham candidates!), and haven’t behaved that way in Parliament - e.g. anti-school fees VAT

That said 13% would indeed be a smidge low - though 5th has always looked rather likely.

LDs have weakened significantly in Bristol even over the past handful of years, and that is by far the biggest part. Also seems to be a bit of a blind spot among many thinking that LDs perform well in S Glos when a majority of that area is Bristol suburbs where LD presence has always been minimal.

The Lib Dems’ likeliest gains of councils are probably Oxfordshire and Shropshire, and by all accounts they are on track to take the latter. Also think it is likely LDs will provide the competition to Reform in East Yorks, not Labour. Reform overall control in Durham looks a big stretch.

I seem to remember some 90s/00s research showing ~half of tactical voters voted ‘wrongly’ - for someone not in the top two. LDs and Lab in 2024 were helped not just by ideological similarity but by relatively efficient sorting in 2017/19. Little to suggest a similar position on the right this time.

Though tactical voting relies not just on willingness, but correct information.

In Rob’s example obvious source of squeeze is Greens. In that putative seat is efficient right-wing tactical voting likely even if willingness exists? Difficult to imagine in marginals where Ref would be overtaking Cons

Agree with basic thesis, but important to remember that LD vote is already squeezed to max in the vast majority of Labour seats. The handful where that’s not the case (SE Cornwall, Watford, Aylesbury, etc.) are likely to see lots of LD resources next time after being ignored almost totally in 2024.

Though ironically in 1987 itself you could extrapolate pretty well between Wales and Scotland, but not England. It’s just that in Wales that was an aberration, whereas the Scots never really stopped doing their own thing.

So, yes, lack of Reform helps Tories more than others, but it’s hardly overwhelming. We’ve also had polling showing a majority of Con 2024 voters disapprove of Nigel Farage, whilst 3/4 of Reform UK voters dislike the Conservative Party. Pretence you can add the two votes up is just that: a pretence.

Rotherham (68% leave) - only seat uncontested by Cons, even here RefUK only got 30%, barely beating UKIP in 2015; behind Tory result in 2019 (when Brx stood separately). Barely better performance than neighbouring Rawmarsh, a seat with (old boundaries) consistently similar ‘right’ vote to this one

Dorset M & NP (58% leave) - LD gain on huge 16.5% swing, below 20% in nearby North Dorset and Glastonbury, 17.5% in Melksham, 26% in Yeovil. Improvement on some neighbours with RefUK competition, but still saw LDs gain 63rd target, a seat without full target status + resourcing that came with that

Middlesbrough S & EC (65% leave) - despite Teesside effect propping up Tory vote, they suffered 12% swing against, losing Labour’s 131st target. Worse performance than neighbours Stockton W & Redcar, 127 & 51 on Lab's targets - both smaller swings + smaller fall in Tory vote, despite RefUK standing

Absolutely right - and, thanks to 2023 election we don’t have to guess at this! RefUK left several seats uncontested, including in what should be good territory for them. Let’s look at some examples

Amusing, and I hold no candle for the Green Party, but I do feel obligated to point out that the boundary changes were not a decisive factor in Debonaire’s loss