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The 15-minute interview: Ian Stewart on the present and future status of the Iran nuclear program

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 27

A privilege to speak with the bulletin about Iran, the missing HEU and next step in international diplomacy. thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...

In this interview, Ian Stewart, executive director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Washington, DC, says that, in the aftermath of the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, ...

Eyes on the Clock: What Comes Next for Iran’s Nuclear Program

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

And indeed Grossi calls for this in the UNSC meeting

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

It's time for the IAEA to get access to the facilities. US and Israel should agree with Grossi to conduct no further attacks on nuclear facilities. Maybe this will be discussed at the upcoming Security Council meeting.

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

It's time for the IAEA to get access to the facilities. US and Israel should agree with Grossi to conduct no further attacks on nuclear facilities. Maybe this will be discussed at the upcoming Security Council meeting.

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Reposted by Dr Ian J Stewart

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

I just wrote a quick piece that i'd encourage you to read and share: Eyes on the Clock - What Comes Next for Iran’s Nuclear Program
I focus on the HEU, the potential for Iran to withdraw from the NPT & prospects for UN snapback. We have till October.
www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

Dr Ian Stewart, 22 June 2025The attacks by Israel and the US on Iran's nuclear program have disabled and perhaps destroyed key facilities. While the next few days are likely to be consumed with analys...

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

Snapback and Iranian threats re the NPT and safeguards are likely to be the two key elements of diplomatic leverage and negotiation in the months ahead.

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

Snapback was built into the JCPOA and embedded in UNSCR 2231. It allows JCPOA participants to reintroduce the previous UNSCRs on Iran in case of non-compliance. If Iran withdraws from NPT or hides the HEU, snapback should be triggered. But we only have until October.

Eyes on the Clock: What Comes Next for Iran’s Nuclear Program

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

I just wrote a quick piece that i'd encourage you to read and share: Eyes on the Clock - What Comes Next for Iran’s Nuclear Program
I focus on the HEU, the potential for Iran to withdraw from the NPT & prospects for UN snapback. We have till October.
www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

Dr Ian Stewart, 22 June 2025The attacks by Israel and the US on Iran's nuclear program have disabled and perhaps destroyed key facilities. While the next few days are likely to be consumed with analys...

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

Images of fordow suggest hit with possibility of significant damage. To be clear, though, Iran had enough 60% HEU to produce 90% for 10 nuclear weapons in days at fordow. That enrichment could continue at small site in weeks. HEU must be dealt with.

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

My last job in UK government was watching Iran building these damned facilities, including fordow and trying to stop them getting equipment and material from around the world. End of a chapter. But it's not over. Need to deal with HEU. Then what comes next.

The radiation risks of Iran’s nuclear program, with or without a strike on Fordow

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

See the bulletin on this, but let me say it more concisely. radiation release is not an issue for Natanz or Fordow. They are not nuclear reactors.

François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · Jun 22

🚨 What are the radiological risks of striking Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan—and other Iranian nuclear facilities.

I assessed the risks yesterday for @thebulletin.org

thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...

#Fordow #Natanz #Isfahan #Esfahan #Iran #nuclearweapons #JCPOA #NPT

Israel’s attacks create significant risks at Iran's nuclear sites. What could go wrong?

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

I also deleted the diplomacy section. Alas.

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

I just did a quick update to the Live Situation Briefing: The Iran Nuclear Program page here nonproarchive.com/article/2025....
New headline assessment. We must track, verify and dispose of the 400+ kgs of 60% HEU.

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

And no, not job done. You must deal with the HEU!

Eyes on the Prize: Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium Is Out of Control

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 22

The US has struck Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. Eyes on the prize, folks, there are 400kgs of 60% HEU out of international verification. It must be accounted for and disposed of. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

Dr Ian J Stewart, 14 June 2025

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

Israel took out the power supplies to the site which the basis for the non-operational assessment. There is a question about damage to the centrifuges, but I think I saw earlier that Israel struck again. I'll add a site analysis to the live situation briefing page soon (maybe tomorrow though).

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

nice. thanks kindly!

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

Here's the headline assessment (sorry text too long for 1 post)

Live Situation Briefing: The Iran Nuclear Program

Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

I am now maintaining an article containing a live situation briefing on the status of Iran's nuclear program in the context of Israel's strikes. I'll update this to include more depth and new information as things transpire. I will also post updates on X & here www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

Dr Ian J Stewart, 21 June 2025

The radiation risks of Iran’s nuclear program, with or without a strike on Fordow

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

And of course, yes, I understand that Iran may not agree to this. But since the HEU situation is untenable, I believe the US would act.

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

It seems Iran is barrier to such an agreement right now. While I get Iran's principled position, reality is Iran created an untenable situation with the HEU. It has 400kgs of 60% currently outside international verification - enough for 10 weapons. This must be addressed.

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

Beyond that, the nuclear priority is to get the HEU out the country, to agree limits on enrichment, and a resumption of JCPOA like verification measures. Other priorities relate to missiles. Presumably in exchange for linked sanctions relief. An agreement still possible.

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

The HEU issue must be addressed. Iran says it won't give up enrichment or negotiate in conflict. Possibility is interim 1 month agrmnt in which US does not strike while Iran provides IAEA access to nuclear sites and materials, HEU moved out of Fordow & no enrichment beyond 5%.

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Reposted by Dr Ian J Stewart

François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · Jun 21

🚨 JUST IN: I break down the risks of striking Iran’s nuclear sites. What could go wrong?

In @thebulletin.org

thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...

#Iran #Natanz #Fordow #Israel #proliferation #nuclearweapons #nukesky

Israel’s attacks create significant risks at Iran's nuclear sites. What could go wrong?

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Dr Ian J Stewart @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social · Jun 21

That's not what I mean or the point. There is 10 weapons worth of material that must be addressed. It can be done through diplomacy or military action. But it must be addressed. So far diplomacy is not solving it. It's not about that Israel did. It's about where we stand today.