Dave 😷
@icestormfr.bsky.social
Ehemals Twitter @icestormfr
Noch am Einrichten
Klima, Covid-19, und anderes
Noch am Einrichten
Klima, Covid-19, und anderes
1/5
Update 2024-11-27:
#SARSCoV2 sequence data from Germany
XEC/XEK fluctuates, currently higher
KP.3.1.1* ~45%
XEC+XEK ~55%
Clustered by important (& convergent) RBD+NTD spike mutations
Proportion over time:
A) stacked area plot, lin. y-axis
B) line plot, logit y-axis
Update 2024-11-27:
#SARSCoV2 sequence data from Germany
XEC/XEK fluctuates, currently higher
KP.3.1.1* ~45%
XEC+XEK ~55%
Clustered by important (& convergent) RBD+NTD spike mutations
Proportion over time:
A) stacked area plot, lin. y-axis
B) line plot, logit y-axis
December 5, 2024 at 7:16 AM
4/5
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
December 5, 2024 at 7:16 AM
4/5
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
3/5
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
December 5, 2024 at 7:16 AM
3/5
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
2/5
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
December 5, 2024 at 7:16 AM
2/5
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
4/5
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
November 28, 2024 at 10:50 AM
4/5
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
Estimated Relative Growth Advantage of XEC* vs KP.3.1.1* clustered lineagea in Germany
~14...~21%/wk
Using RKI data & clustered lineages (see above), time resolution = week numbers, unweighted & weighted fit (Python statsmodels) and extrapolation
3/5
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
November 28, 2024 at 10:50 AM
3/5
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
E) supplemental table: which sublineages with which proportions (rel. to whole of samples over time) are contained in the "* et. al." clusters (for JN.1 & desc.) of A/B
F) legend for "* et. al." clustering (relevant spike mutations) & cov-spectrum.org advanced filters
2/5
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
November 28, 2024 at 10:50 AM
2/5
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
Additional plots:
C) relevant spike mutations (see F in 3/5), proportion over time, line plot, logit y-axis
D) number of sequence samples per week over time (week of sample taken), bar chart, linear y-axis. Last week is severely "incomplete" (many samples are missing, to be reported later)
Aber sehr mit Fragezeichen zu sehen.
Könnte sein, dass da nochmal ein zusätzlicher Dunkelziffer-Faktor draufkommt (maximal Faktor 1,5-2,0 IMHO) 🤷♂️
Könnte sein, dass da nochmal ein zusätzlicher Dunkelziffer-Faktor draufkommt (maximal Faktor 1,5-2,0 IMHO) 🤷♂️
June 24, 2024 at 4:31 PM
Aber sehr mit Fragezeichen zu sehen.
Könnte sein, dass da nochmal ein zusätzlicher Dunkelziffer-Faktor draufkommt (maximal Faktor 1,5-2,0 IMHO) 🤷♂️
Könnte sein, dass da nochmal ein zusätzlicher Dunkelziffer-Faktor draufkommt (maximal Faktor 1,5-2,0 IMHO) 🤷♂️
Anhand der kumulativen Schätzungen inkl. Dunkelziffer von RV & Martin Hechler (plus Annahme von 3-6 Mio. Infektionen in der Zeit bis Sommer '21), würde ich im Mittel 2±0,5 Inf./Person (also ~160 Mio. Inf. auf ~80 Mio Einwohner) sehr grob schätzen.
A) x.com/rv_enigma/st...
B) x.com/Martin46er1/...
A) x.com/rv_enigma/st...
B) x.com/Martin46er1/...
x.com
x.com
June 24, 2024 at 4:26 PM
Anhand der kumulativen Schätzungen inkl. Dunkelziffer von RV & Martin Hechler (plus Annahme von 3-6 Mio. Infektionen in der Zeit bis Sommer '21), würde ich im Mittel 2±0,5 Inf./Person (also ~160 Mio. Inf. auf ~80 Mio Einwohner) sehr grob schätzen.
A) x.com/rv_enigma/st...
B) x.com/Martin46er1/...
A) x.com/rv_enigma/st...
B) x.com/Martin46er1/...
1/2
Update 2024-01-10:
Analysis of sequence data #SARSCoV2 for Germany
Clustered by most important (&convergent) RBD spike mutations (reason see previous post)
proportion over time
A) stacked area plot, lin. y-axis
B) line plot, logit y-axis
#JN1Variant #JN1
Update 2024-01-10:
Analysis of sequence data #SARSCoV2 for Germany
Clustered by most important (&convergent) RBD spike mutations (reason see previous post)
proportion over time
A) stacked area plot, lin. y-axis
B) line plot, logit y-axis
#JN1Variant #JN1
January 24, 2024 at 8:31 PM