I can't find data granular enough that I can include all trips at a precinct level.

Another note, the mode share often doesn't add up to 100% and that is not a mistake. It is just that the census considers "work from home" a mode share. But I just wanted to capture the difference between driving and other means of actual commute.

Also these are only commute mode shares

I do suspect that, due to shifts over time, this model is overestimating the conservativeness of downtown while underrating it on the edges of the city near O'Hare and Mount Greenwood.

Both won progressive north side areas (though Johnson did better) but the rest of their coalitions look different despite both being the more progressive option.

Brandon Johnson also won a lot of Black majority areas that would otherwise vote for the more conservative option. You can even see this on the maps.

This was trained on 2015 and 2023 and tries to account for racial polarization that tends to happen in Chicago mayoral elections. Chuy won a lot of moderate and sometimes even more conservative leaning areas of Chicago that were majority Hispanic despite being the more progressive option.

If we get at least 1 more poll soon with them, I will look at adding favorables.

I will eventually work on trying to get the 2019 and 2015 mayoral elections on there too.

And all statewide races and federal races are probably a forgone conclusion in the general.

The only interesting in the general will be how the state legislature changes. @uncrewed.bsky.social would be a much better account to look to for that. They suspect the Dem supermajority will expand.

actually, already fixed.

Also there is a bug for precincts that are clipped to district boundaries where their turnout is too low. This will get fixed in coming updates.

I do think this is the final version minus maybe some tweaks here and there.

There are outlines for the district as a whole as well as for Chicago, Evanston, Cook County, Lake County, and McHenry County.

Also, as you can see, the new Biss internal wipes out a lot of Kat's Chicago precinct wins. Also all of the precincts Fine was winning in Chicago.

Also new in the hover tool is who is expected to win, by how much, and what I expect the turnout to look like in the precinct.

This version also cuts precincts at the district boundaries since some precincts are split. I have also added outlines.