Inte Mitt Default
@imdef.bsky.social
Computational scientist, swedish, don't like to make it too easy for social media companies to collect data. Some statistics/decision theory thoughts at https://intemittdefault.wordpress.com/
It would be interesting to also vary the consequences/costs of the event occuring/not occuring in the poll. For example, if you judge that there's a 1% probability that your plane is gonna crash, you don't call it "virtually certain" that it won't.
January 3, 2026 at 5:44 PM
It would be interesting to also vary the consequences/costs of the event occuring/not occuring in the poll. For example, if you judge that there's a 1% probability that your plane is gonna crash, you don't call it "virtually certain" that it won't.
With arithmetic, people understand why. Same with learning the letters the alphabet and then learning to spell out words. With AI, many struggle to understand, because they don't expect ability to do the task AI does for them to be a required ingredient in future learning.
July 18, 2025 at 1:18 PM
With arithmetic, people understand why. Same with learning the letters the alphabet and then learning to spell out words. With AI, many struggle to understand, because they don't expect ability to do the task AI does for them to be a required ingredient in future learning.
I think the major point is that many things you learn are supposed to be building blocks in future learning. E.g., the first years in school, students do endless exercises in basic arithmetic... 5+7=?, 13-6=?, ... Why not just let them use a calculator instead? >
July 18, 2025 at 1:15 PM
I think the major point is that many things you learn are supposed to be building blocks in future learning. E.g., the first years in school, students do endless exercises in basic arithmetic... 5+7=?, 13-6=?, ... Why not just let them use a calculator instead? >
I'm not so optimistic, because it requires a great deal of linguistic proficiency and discipline to check that the thoughts were actually expressed correctly. I think what will happen is that even the technical literature becomes filled with AI slop.
May 17, 2025 at 7:54 AM
I'm not so optimistic, because it requires a great deal of linguistic proficiency and discipline to check that the thoughts were actually expressed correctly. I think what will happen is that even the technical literature becomes filled with AI slop.
Another one, a bit less concrete, in the same genre
arxiv.org/abs/1708.09032
arxiv.org/abs/1708.09032
Plausibility and probability in deductive reasoning
We consider the problem of rational uncertainty about unproven mathematical statements, remarked on by Gödel and others. Using Bayesian-inspired arguments we build a normative model of fair bets under...
arxiv.org
April 29, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Another one, a bit less concrete, in the same genre
arxiv.org/abs/1708.09032
arxiv.org/abs/1708.09032