Mamdani’s Effect on the CPI

Surprising no one, and yet shocking many, avowed socialist Zohran Mamdani won the election yesterday to become Mayor of the largest city in the United States.[1] Probably the main reason for Mamdani’s…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/11/05/mamdanis-effect-on-the-cpi/

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2025)

Well, it seems like it’s been a while since the last CPI update! Thanks to the government shutdown, it has been since this data is a week and a half later than it was…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/10/24/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2025/

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2025)

Before I begin talking about today’s CPI, a quick word about the 24th anniversary of the terrorist attacks of 9/11. As someone who worked 1 block from the Towers, I can tell you…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2025/

The Fate of FAIT was Fated

Growth in the US is ebbing, and it is likely only the AI boom that is keeping us from recording a small recession. Unemployment is still rising, although slowly, and credit delinquencies are rising.…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/02/the-fate-of-fait-was-fated/

How to Calculate USDi’s Current Value

I haven’t been writing a lot during August, nor have I done many podcast episodes. I feel like I make this apology almost every year, but it seems every year August just gets slower,…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/08/28/how-to-calculate-usdis-current-value/

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2025)

The inflation story and the employment story are about the only things rippling the still summer waters these days, it seems. The weak employment data in the most-recent report got…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/08/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2025/

An Update/Reminder on Rent Inflation

A subscriber to our Quarterly Inflation Outlook (you can subscribe here) wrote to me recently and asked about a research piece put out by a major sell-side investment house that…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/24/an-update-reminder-on-rent-inflation/

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)

If you squint, can you see an effect of the deportations of illegal aliens in today’s CPI report?I don’t want to encourage anyone to obsess over every jot and tittle of the report.…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/

The Twin Deficits – One Out of Two IS Bad

From time to time on this blog, I circle back to the question of the balance of deficits. In my mind, as our economy goes through whatever the “Trump Transition” is, the biggest…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/25/the-twin-deficits-one-out-of-two-is-bad/

The Road to Crypto Conversion

While this isn’t exactly the conversion of Saul on the road to Damascus, I came to a realization recently that subtly changes the way I look at the potential for large cryptocurrencies, such as…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/17/the-road-to-crypto-conversion/

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)

Well, this was an odd one to sort out. Going into the CPI announcement this morning, the economist consensus was for +0.17% (seasonally adjusted) on headline CPI m/m and +0.28% on…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/

Why a 4.5% Nominal Rate is Roughly Equilibrium…Hmmm, Sounds Familiar…

I was planning to write today about why a 4.5%-5.0% nominal Treasury rate is not only not the end of the world, but…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/28/why-a-4-5-nominal-rate-is-roughly-equilibrium-hmmm-sounds-familiar/

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)

Before the CPI analysis, I always try to give some context for where we are in the ‘story’ about the evolution of inflation right now. It’s really difficult to do that, though,…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/

The Coming Surge in College Tuition Inflation

Today’s news is clearly about the imposition of new reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners, and the responses that those countries will have to the tariffs. In…

https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/03/the-coming-surge-in-college-tuition-inflation/