Alpha, Beta, Whatever!
@investwithsl.bsky.social
Investor, decision coach, and lifelong learner. These are insights from my investing odyssey, for infotainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Please don't do anything crazy with any ideas or information shared here.
The market is waiting for NVDA earnings on Wednesday, job reports on Thursday, PMI on Friday, and what the Fed will signal afterward.
November 19, 2025 at 9:30 AM
The market is waiting for NVDA earnings on Wednesday, job reports on Thursday, PMI on Friday, and what the Fed will signal afterward.
Powell should know that non-farm jobs have been revised down almost every month for the past two years. The data is public, and it shouldn’t surprise him. He should have continued to cut rates instead of being “concerned” about the impacts of tariffs when there weren’t any details about the tariffs.
September 10, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Powell should know that non-farm jobs have been revised down almost every month for the past two years. The data is public, and it shouldn’t surprise him. He should have continued to cut rates instead of being “concerned” about the impacts of tariffs when there weren’t any details about the tariffs.
The Fed won’t cut rate tomorrow but I think Powell will soften his tone. The inflation data has been great and the labor market continues to cool. He can’t use tariffs uncertainty as an excuse forever. At some point, he has to accept the data and start prepping the market for the eventual rate cut.
June 18, 2025 at 6:40 AM
The Fed won’t cut rate tomorrow but I think Powell will soften his tone. The inflation data has been great and the labor market continues to cool. He can’t use tariffs uncertainty as an excuse forever. At some point, he has to accept the data and start prepping the market for the eventual rate cut.
S&P 500 got to 6043 today before coming down (okay, the precision is luck).
If the MoM CPI is worse than expected tomorrow, it might cause a mild sell-off in the market. But as long as the YoY remains cool & on trend and the shelter inflation is not getting worse, this will create an opportunity.
If the MoM CPI is worse than expected tomorrow, it might cause a mild sell-off in the market. But as long as the YoY remains cool & on trend and the shelter inflation is not getting worse, this will create an opportunity.
The most important economic data this week will be CPI on Wednesday. I expect it to continue the cooling trend. It might not cool as much MoM, but YoY should look good.
S&P 500 could be range bound within 6045 and 5785 over the next two weeks.
S&P 500 could be range bound within 6045 and 5785 over the next two weeks.
June 11, 2025 at 5:56 AM
S&P 500 got to 6043 today before coming down (okay, the precision is luck).
If the MoM CPI is worse than expected tomorrow, it might cause a mild sell-off in the market. But as long as the YoY remains cool & on trend and the shelter inflation is not getting worse, this will create an opportunity.
If the MoM CPI is worse than expected tomorrow, it might cause a mild sell-off in the market. But as long as the YoY remains cool & on trend and the shelter inflation is not getting worse, this will create an opportunity.
The most important economic data this week will be CPI on Wednesday. I expect it to continue the cooling trend. It might not cool as much MoM, but YoY should look good.
S&P 500 could be range bound within 6045 and 5785 over the next two weeks.
S&P 500 could be range bound within 6045 and 5785 over the next two weeks.
June 9, 2025 at 8:16 AM
The most important economic data this week will be CPI on Wednesday. I expect it to continue the cooling trend. It might not cool as much MoM, but YoY should look good.
S&P 500 could be range bound within 6045 and 5785 over the next two weeks.
S&P 500 could be range bound within 6045 and 5785 over the next two weeks.
If the non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate coming out later today are weak, it will be a bad news is good news scenario.
The market will rally as it expects the Fed to cut rate because the Fed will be running out of excuses not to.
The market will rally as it expects the Fed to cut rate because the Fed will be running out of excuses not to.
June 6, 2025 at 7:10 AM
If the non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate coming out later today are weak, it will be a bad news is good news scenario.
The market will rally as it expects the Fed to cut rate because the Fed will be running out of excuses not to.
The market will rally as it expects the Fed to cut rate because the Fed will be running out of excuses not to.
Wednesday is the Fed day. Given that employment is still holding up fine, the Fed is not going to cut.
Powell is likely to use the tariffs uncertainty to cast a negative tone and he might even release a hawkish dot plot.
Powell is likely to use the tariffs uncertainty to cast a negative tone and he might even release a hawkish dot plot.
May 7, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Wednesday is the Fed day. Given that employment is still holding up fine, the Fed is not going to cut.
Powell is likely to use the tariffs uncertainty to cast a negative tone and he might even release a hawkish dot plot.
Powell is likely to use the tariffs uncertainty to cast a negative tone and he might even release a hawkish dot plot.
Media and retail investors got scared by the negative GDP number.
However, GDP is noisy because it includes government spending and net exports; and therefore doesn’t necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the economy.
However, GDP is noisy because it includes government spending and net exports; and therefore doesn’t necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the economy.
May 1, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Media and retail investors got scared by the negative GDP number.
However, GDP is noisy because it includes government spending and net exports; and therefore doesn’t necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the economy.
However, GDP is noisy because it includes government spending and net exports; and therefore doesn’t necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the economy.
What would China do?
Ideally, both China and US will negotiate and work together towards a trade balance.
But both countries have strong national pride, so the negotiation is likely to be a drawn-out process.
Whoever can withstand the pain for longer will be in a stronger position.
Ideally, both China and US will negotiate and work together towards a trade balance.
But both countries have strong national pride, so the negotiation is likely to be a drawn-out process.
Whoever can withstand the pain for longer will be in a stronger position.
I think most countries will capitulate, except China.
There definitely will *not* be a deal between China and US by April 9.
It is a lose-lose situation. All we can hope for is some *progress* will be made between them after this week.
There definitely will *not* be a deal between China and US by April 9.
It is a lose-lose situation. All we can hope for is some *progress* will be made between them after this week.
April 7, 2025 at 9:09 PM
What would China do?
Ideally, both China and US will negotiate and work together towards a trade balance.
But both countries have strong national pride, so the negotiation is likely to be a drawn-out process.
Whoever can withstand the pain for longer will be in a stronger position.
Ideally, both China and US will negotiate and work together towards a trade balance.
But both countries have strong national pride, so the negotiation is likely to be a drawn-out process.
Whoever can withstand the pain for longer will be in a stronger position.
I think most countries will capitulate, except China.
There definitely will *not* be a deal between China and US by April 9.
It is a lose-lose situation. All we can hope for is some *progress* will be made between them after this week.
There definitely will *not* be a deal between China and US by April 9.
It is a lose-lose situation. All we can hope for is some *progress* will be made between them after this week.
April 7, 2025 at 6:05 PM
I think most countries will capitulate, except China.
There definitely will *not* be a deal between China and US by April 9.
It is a lose-lose situation. All we can hope for is some *progress* will be made between them after this week.
There definitely will *not* be a deal between China and US by April 9.
It is a lose-lose situation. All we can hope for is some *progress* will be made between them after this week.
The market has been in full panic mode since the reciprocal tariffs announcement on the liberation day.
Volatility will likely continue as April 9 approaches, unless some major deals are announced.
Volatility will likely continue as April 9 approaches, unless some major deals are announced.
April 7, 2025 at 6:54 AM
The market has been in full panic mode since the reciprocal tariffs announcement on the liberation day.
Volatility will likely continue as April 9 approaches, unless some major deals are announced.
Volatility will likely continue as April 9 approaches, unless some major deals are announced.
I no longer think Powell will be dovish in his speech today. Given the tariffs uncertainty, he will try to be as neutral as possible.
He really doesn’t know more than we do regarding how the tariffs situation will unfold. Being hawkish or dovish runs the risk of looking silly in a few weeks.
He really doesn’t know more than we do regarding how the tariffs situation will unfold. Being hawkish or dovish runs the risk of looking silly in a few weeks.
April 4, 2025 at 7:48 AM
I no longer think Powell will be dovish in his speech today. Given the tariffs uncertainty, he will try to be as neutral as possible.
He really doesn’t know more than we do regarding how the tariffs situation will unfold. Being hawkish or dovish runs the risk of looking silly in a few weeks.
He really doesn’t know more than we do regarding how the tariffs situation will unfold. Being hawkish or dovish runs the risk of looking silly in a few weeks.
Per the Office of the US Trade Representative, this is how reciprocal tariffs were calculated:
Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners.
Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners.
Reciprocal Tariff Calculations
Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...
ustr.gov
April 3, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Per the Office of the US Trade Representative, this is how reciprocal tariffs were calculated:
Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners.
Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners.
The after hours market reacted negatively to the Liberation Day. The long list of countries targeted by tariffs was overwhelming and the market might have missed a few positive signs.
It could take a few days for the market to digest the news. But I don’t think the S&P 500 will drop below 5350.
It could take a few days for the market to digest the news. But I don’t think the S&P 500 will drop below 5350.
April 3, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The after hours market reacted negatively to the Liberation Day. The long list of countries targeted by tariffs was overwhelming and the market might have missed a few positive signs.
It could take a few days for the market to digest the news. But I don’t think the S&P 500 will drop below 5350.
It could take a few days for the market to digest the news. But I don’t think the S&P 500 will drop below 5350.
I mentioned lowering yield and a bullish setup for silver on Feb 23. Since then, silver has been a great portfolio diversification asset.
The 10-year yield still has more room to come down and the world is still chaotic, therefore, I expect a bit more upside for silver over the next few weeks.
The 10-year yield still has more room to come down and the world is still chaotic, therefore, I expect a bit more upside for silver over the next few weeks.
The good news is that the 10-year yield has been coming down the past few days. The lowering yield will provide fuels for a market rebound. Silver (SLV) will also benefit from it.
April 2, 2025 at 5:20 AM
I mentioned lowering yield and a bullish setup for silver on Feb 23. Since then, silver has been a great portfolio diversification asset.
The 10-year yield still has more room to come down and the world is still chaotic, therefore, I expect a bit more upside for silver over the next few weeks.
The 10-year yield still has more room to come down and the world is still chaotic, therefore, I expect a bit more upside for silver over the next few weeks.
The market has been weak and volatile the last two sessions but I maintain that it is bottoming.
Given the headlines, the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on tariffs.
Given the headlines, the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on tariffs.
April 1, 2025 at 8:14 AM
The market has been weak and volatile the last two sessions but I maintain that it is bottoming.
Given the headlines, the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on tariffs.
Given the headlines, the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on tariffs.
As I predicted two days ago, Powell was dovish on Wednesday. He doesn’t think tariffs will affect the long-term inflation and he still thinks the labor market conditions are solid.
More importantly, the Fed will start slowing the pace of QT starting April, signaling a supportive Fed when necessary.
More importantly, the Fed will start slowing the pace of QT starting April, signaling a supportive Fed when necessary.
March 20, 2025 at 8:15 AM
As I predicted two days ago, Powell was dovish on Wednesday. He doesn’t think tariffs will affect the long-term inflation and he still thinks the labor market conditions are solid.
More importantly, the Fed will start slowing the pace of QT starting April, signaling a supportive Fed when necessary.
More importantly, the Fed will start slowing the pace of QT starting April, signaling a supportive Fed when necessary.
Bad news is good news. I think Powell is going to be dovish on Wednesday.
First, New York State manufacturing index dropped by almost 26 points to -20 from +5.7 a month ago. This is the biggest drop since May 2023.
First, New York State manufacturing index dropped by almost 26 points to -20 from +5.7 a month ago. This is the biggest drop since May 2023.
March 18, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Bad news is good news. I think Powell is going to be dovish on Wednesday.
First, New York State manufacturing index dropped by almost 26 points to -20 from +5.7 a month ago. This is the biggest drop since May 2023.
First, New York State manufacturing index dropped by almost 26 points to -20 from +5.7 a month ago. This is the biggest drop since May 2023.
PPI inflation came in cooler too. The core PPI inflation in February is -0.1% (yes, negative) vs. a +0.3% forecast. It is the first negative reading since July 2024.
Earnings, capex spending, job growth, and inflation are all fine so far.
Earnings, capex spending, job growth, and inflation are all fine so far.
March 14, 2025 at 6:48 AM
PPI inflation came in cooler too. The core PPI inflation in February is -0.1% (yes, negative) vs. a +0.3% forecast. It is the first negative reading since July 2024.
Earnings, capex spending, job growth, and inflation are all fine so far.
Earnings, capex spending, job growth, and inflation are all fine so far.
The CPI inflation came in much better than economists’ forecasts. The February core CPI inflation was 0.2% MoM (down from 0.4% in January) and 3.1% YoY (down from 3.3% a month earlier), which is the smallest YoY increase since April 2021.
March 13, 2025 at 8:49 AM
The CPI inflation came in much better than economists’ forecasts. The February core CPI inflation was 0.2% MoM (down from 0.4% in January) and 3.1% YoY (down from 3.3% a month earlier), which is the smallest YoY increase since April 2021.
Job openings increased from 7.508M to 7.74M, which is higher than the expected 7.5M. This suggests that the growth scare might be overblown, the sky is not falling yet.
Core CPI tomorrow will address the inflation scare. I expect the CPI to meet the forecast or at least better than a year ago.
Core CPI tomorrow will address the inflation scare. I expect the CPI to meet the forecast or at least better than a year ago.
March 12, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Job openings increased from 7.508M to 7.74M, which is higher than the expected 7.5M. This suggests that the growth scare might be overblown, the sky is not falling yet.
Core CPI tomorrow will address the inflation scare. I expect the CPI to meet the forecast or at least better than a year ago.
Core CPI tomorrow will address the inflation scare. I expect the CPI to meet the forecast or at least better than a year ago.
The market has been extremely fearful and we are very close to the correction territory.
While it is true that a prolonged trade war will lead to a recession, my view is that the market assigns too high a probability of this worse case scenario happening.
While it is true that a prolonged trade war will lead to a recession, my view is that the market assigns too high a probability of this worse case scenario happening.
March 11, 2025 at 8:26 AM
The market has been extremely fearful and we are very close to the correction territory.
While it is true that a prolonged trade war will lead to a recession, my view is that the market assigns too high a probability of this worse case scenario happening.
While it is true that a prolonged trade war will lead to a recession, my view is that the market assigns too high a probability of this worse case scenario happening.
The Friday jobs report wasn’t as bad as most media portrayed. Yes, the top line number was slightly lower than expected (151k jobs added vs. 160k forecasted).
But the decline in job growth is from government jobs (dropped from 44k jobs added in January to only 11k jobs added in February.
But the decline in job growth is from government jobs (dropped from 44k jobs added in January to only 11k jobs added in February.
March 10, 2025 at 7:58 AM
The Friday jobs report wasn’t as bad as most media portrayed. Yes, the top line number was slightly lower than expected (151k jobs added vs. 160k forecasted).
But the decline in job growth is from government jobs (dropped from 44k jobs added in January to only 11k jobs added in February.
But the decline in job growth is from government jobs (dropped from 44k jobs added in January to only 11k jobs added in February.
I think we are getting closer and closer to a local bottom for the stock market this week.
First, the ADP data released on Wednesday showed that the private sector added only 77k jobs in February, which is only 55% of the expected 140k.
First, the ADP data released on Wednesday showed that the private sector added only 77k jobs in February, which is only 55% of the expected 140k.
March 6, 2025 at 8:53 AM
I think we are getting closer and closer to a local bottom for the stock market this week.
First, the ADP data released on Wednesday showed that the private sector added only 77k jobs in February, which is only 55% of the expected 140k.
First, the ADP data released on Wednesday showed that the private sector added only 77k jobs in February, which is only 55% of the expected 140k.
This week has a number of very important events:
- Trump addressing the nation on Tuesday;
- Bessent speaking on Thursday;
- US unemployment data and job report on Friday;
- Powell speaking on Friday.
Bullish outcomes from above truly have the potential to drive a local bottom.
- Trump addressing the nation on Tuesday;
- Bessent speaking on Thursday;
- US unemployment data and job report on Friday;
- Powell speaking on Friday.
Bullish outcomes from above truly have the potential to drive a local bottom.
March 3, 2025 at 10:29 AM
This week has a number of very important events:
- Trump addressing the nation on Tuesday;
- Bessent speaking on Thursday;
- US unemployment data and job report on Friday;
- Powell speaking on Friday.
Bullish outcomes from above truly have the potential to drive a local bottom.
- Trump addressing the nation on Tuesday;
- Bessent speaking on Thursday;
- US unemployment data and job report on Friday;
- Powell speaking on Friday.
Bullish outcomes from above truly have the potential to drive a local bottom.