An IrishElections projection based on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 46 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44
⭐ Fine Gael — 39
🟪 Social Democrats — 18
🌹 Labour — 9
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 5
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2

irishelections.ie/general/

We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated.

Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win!

Presets will be added once polls come in.

irishelections.ie/presidential/

A projection based on the latest Red C/Business Post poll:

☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 20
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
🌳 Aontú — 1

From @irishelection.bsky.social

Currently we have Connolly, Humphreys, Gavin, Sinn Féin and Other as options.

We'll update if anyone else is nominated and when SF pick a candidate, or decide not run.

If you leave the Transfer Friendliness on 1x it uses the numbers from 2024 for that party (or similar independents).

Dialling them up or down has a huge effect

Here's Humphreys on the same first preferences but double the Transfer Friendliness:

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!

Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.

irishelections.ie/presidential/

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1

irishelections.ie/general/

🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.

We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers

👉 irishelections.ie