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Reposted by Jacob Edenhofer

Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

analysis of, among others, the CCA and CCC. Scrapping either or both would remove the guardrails just as the UK enters the most treacherous stretch of the road to Net Zero, creating massive political uncertainty.

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 12h

Indeed — as we say in the paper. But we wanted to be consistent across our cases

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 14h

See the appendix -- ours is a very restrictive definition, with the objective being to keep the conceptual and empirical analysis clean.

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

analysis of, among others, the CCA and CCC. Scrapping either or both would remove the guardrails just as the UK enters the most treacherous stretch of the road to Net Zero, creating massive political uncertainty.

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

advisory bodies were created to establish the equivalent to the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), which was established as part of the Climate Change Act. The table below summarises results of our (@claudiazwar.bsky.social and @chflachsland.bsky.social) comparative

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

doesn't mean I agree with her. On the contrary! The UK CCA is an extremely important piece of legislation that has not only served as a robust framework for UK climate policy over the last 15 years or so; it has also engendered institutional diffusion. Quite a few climate osf.io/preprints/so...

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

with them, Reform's surge in the polls strengthens these voices in the party. To maintain her precarious hold on power, she has to get them on board. Overall, Badenoch’s stance may allienate many voters, but it might still resonate where it counts — inside the party, and in key marginals. This

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

to capture existing parties (Tea Party & GOP; European Research Group during Brexit). The latest vehicle of populist capture is the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, which has reframed climate as a “green elite vs the people” issue. While Badenoch may or may not agree www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

The Rise of Anti-Net Zero Populism in the UK: Comparing Rhetorical Strategies for Climate Policy Dismantling

This article explores a backlash against the net zero greenhouse gas emissions target within the UK. It introduces the term “anti-net zero populism” to analyse ideological and opportunistic counter...

www.tandfonline.com

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

could make electoral sense.
This brings me to the party- or elite-level logic of the announcement. In majoritarian systems, populism tends to emerge within mainstream parties because higher barriers to entry for new parties make it more attractive for populists
bsky.app/profile/fgen...

Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · Jun 17

🚨Global public action (climate!) is most effective when countries do it together yet we're in a period of IO backlash rooted in left-behind places

Does it mean all left-behind regions hate IOs the same?

@patrickbayer.bsky.social & I have a paper accepted @bjpols.bsky.social abt this🧵

osf.io/rtymv

Climate Policy Costs, Regional Politics and Backlashagainst International Cooperation by Patrick Bayer and Federica Genovese.

This paper investigates the conditions under which subnational concerns shape public assessments of international climate governance. In line with existing literature, we maintain that costly policy adjustments fuel negative views of international cooperation in policy exposed regions. At the same time, we argue that the more resentful relations are with the national center of politics, the more sympathetic these regions areto international institutions and global governance. Based on geographically targeted survey data from theUnited Kingdom, we find that fossil fuel-intensive regions with strong, institutionalized regional politics have more positive assessments of international climate cooperation than structurally similar regions where regional political institutions are less pronounced. The findings show that regional politics characteristics are key for understanding climate policy beliefs among citizens that bear the brunt of adjustments to international climate agreements

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

to be lower outside London (Bretter & Schulz 2024). For related work, see also the paper by @patrickbayer.bsky.social and @fgenovese.bsky.social (next tweet). If scepticism toward “costly” Net Zero measures clusters in marginal seats, a tougher line on climate
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Public support for decarbonization policies in the UK: exploring regional variations and policy instruments

Decarbonization policies require public support to be implemented and to remain in legislation. Examinations of public support for climate policies tend to focus on a small number of policy instrum...

www.tandfonline.com

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

pivotal voters in swing/marginal constituencies, not the country as a whole. Nationally, most Britons back climate action. But it’s a genuinely open question what specific policies pivotal voters in marginals support — if any. We do know that support for stringent instruments (taxes, bans) tends

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

placate or, even, boost the relative power of the climate sceptics in the Tory party, especially the Net Zero Scrutiny Group.
In a first-past-the-post system (FPTP), what matters electorally isn’t the national majority view, but where voters sit geographically. Winning requires pandering to

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 15h

Some thoughts on the strategic logic behind Kemi Badenoch’s announcement that she’d scrap the Climate Change Act (CCA).
It serves two functions:
1️⃣ It appeals to lukewarm pivotal voters in marginal seats sceptical of costly green measures.
2️⃣ It is designed to
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Kemi Badenoch vows to repeal Climate Change Act

Tory leader says she would replace it with ‘cheap energy’ strategy, ending decades-long consensus on climate

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Jacob Edenhofer

Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 23d

🚨 @patrickbayer.bsky.social, @lorenzocrippa.bsky.social and I have a paper entitled “Energy Transition, Financial Markets and EU Interventionism: Lessons from the Ukraine Crisis” cond. accepted at @psrm.bsky.social.

Text: federica-genovese.com/downloads/Ba...

Gist of the paper in this 🧵 :

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"Energy Transition, Financial Markets and EU Interventionism:
Lessons from the Ukraine Crisis" by Patrick Bayer, Lorenzo Crippa and Federica Genovese

A successful energy transition requires the reallocation of private capital away from fossil fuel assets to greener alternatives. This transition is typically hindered by investors’ focus on today’s returns. In times of crisis, however, credible and unambiguous political signals about the future profitability of green industries can steer investments towards low-carbon assets. Drawing on European Union interventions during the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we present an event study of daily stock market returns following the most salient policy announcements by the European Commission in 2022. Our analysis shows that markets for shares of EU-based energy firms were initially prepared to move capital to cleaner companies, suggesting support for the clean energy transition. However, the short-lived distributional effects materialized only for announcements that could unmistakably be understood as unwavering commitments to the EU’s green renewal, while more ambiguous announcements did not have the same distributional implications. Our findings emphasize that repeated and unambiguous political signals during crisis episodes can create favorable market conditions, at least in the short-term, to support capital reallocation towards greener stocks.

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Reposted by Jacob Edenhofer

Seema Jayachandran @seema.bsky.social · 19h

We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."

Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.

Event study coefficients that show that men's earnings rise more than women's among couples following a cross-commuting zone move (left panels). The pattern is muted or reverses among single men and single women (right panels).

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 1d

blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...

International Migration as a Structural Transformation Policy

blogs.worldbank.org

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 2d

growth rates have declined secularly in many industrialised democracies, it is perhaps not all that surprising that zero-sum attitudes are particularly pronounced among younger generations (see this graph from the @sahilchinoy.bsky.social et al. paper). scholar.harvard.edu/files/stantc...

Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 2d

in average lifetime GDP growth (~2 percentage points) is associated with an increase in trust in government by 2.2–3.7 percentage points. There is much more in the paper, but this result suggests that low or volatile growth creates the conditions in which zero-sum worldviews take root. Given that

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 2d

between cohorts, controlling for country fixed effects (netting out time-invariant, country-specific confounders, e.g. macro institutions, culture), survey year fixed effects (year-specific confounders), and some conventional socio-demographic controls. Their central finding is that a 1 SD increase

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 2d

how recent those years are (recency gets more weight, based on Malmendier & @profstefannagel.bsky.social's “memory decay” model). Their "identifying variation" comes from within-country differences in growth experiences from within-country differences in growth experiences
cepr.org/publications...

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 2d

Let me add this forthcoming paper by Besley et al (in the @qjeharvard.bsky.social), which, I think, provides a nice micro-foundation for between-cohort variation in zero-sum attitudes. They define “growth experience” as the average GDP growth an individual has lived through since birth, weighted by

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Reposted by Jacob Edenhofer

Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 4d

the GDR regime or the idea that the regime eradicated what Almond & Verba called a democratic political culture. As for the first point: See the thread above and the paper by
@essobecker.bsky.social, @lukasmergele.bsky.social, @woessmann.bsky.social; while some www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism

(Spring 2020) - German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of co...

www.aeaweb.org

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 4d

Thank you!

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Reposted by Jacob Edenhofer

Paul Lehmann @plehmann.bsky.social · 4d

Thoughtful thread

Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 4d

German Reunification Day invites both gratitude and reflection.
Gratitude, because the peaceful revolution of 1989 was nothing short of a miracle — a bloodless dismantling of a repressive regime.
Reflection, because the wounds of the transition still mark the country —and because

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 4d

Thank you!