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Jacob Stokes

@jacobstokes.bsky.social

1.2K followers 560 following 96 posts

Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Previously White House & U.S. Congress. China, East Asian security, US foreign policy. Views mine.

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 18

My newest CNAS report: Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses

I identify 3 lenses through which to view how Beijing makes decisions related to nukes: leadership, weapons systems & military organizations, & official policies & doctrine.

www.cnas.org/publications...

Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making

China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons.

www.cnas.org

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Aug 6

One of the key questions of the new nuclear age is how big China's nuclear arsenal will ultimately grow. I game out potential endpoints in a new piece. www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/0...

How big will China’s nuclear arsenal get?

No one knows, but we can game out potential endpoints of Beijing’s buildup.

www.defenseone.com

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Jun 6

"The most dangerous occupation in Washington these days is being an expert."

A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...

It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington

www.nytimes.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Jun 5

"it was not clear why the information about the DF-5, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was made public." www.scmp.com/news/china/m...

Chinese state media releases key details about DF-5 nuclear weapons

Rare disclosure may signal that the country has ‘far more powerful capabilities it has not shown the world’, according to one analyst.

www.scmp.com

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · May 21

I'm delighted to share my newest @cnas.bsky.social report:

Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire

It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...

Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency

A contingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment.

www.cnas.org

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · May 6

Russia says Putin will travel to China in August apnews.com/article/russ...

Russia says Putin will travel to China in August

The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.

apnews.com

Reposted by Jacob Stokes

Lili Pike @lilipike.bsky.social · May 5

“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs, especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,”
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.

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Reposted by Jacob Stokes

Senate Press Gallery @senatepress.bsky.social · Apr 29

By a vote of 67 to 29, the #Senate confirmed David Perdue to be the Ambassador to the People's Republic of China.

Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.

Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.

Home - U.S. Senate Daily Press

Senate ScheduleThe Senate began a series of two votes at 11:29 a.m. There are two votes at 2:15 p.m. and further votes expected. Senate Hearings & Meetings

dailypress.senate.gov

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 25

Schrödinger's leaders call between Trump and Xi. Apparently, it happened and didn't happen simultaneously. www.ft.com/content/0192...

Donald Trump claims to have received call from Xi Jinping and to have cut ‘200 deals’ on trade

Beijing says there are no active talks and Washington should ‘stop creating confusion’

www.ft.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 24

"Mr. Trump is the latest commander in chief to arrive at the White House with an eye toward China, only to be diverted." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/o...

Opinion | Pete Hegseth Blunders Into His Forever War (Gift Article)

The operation in Yemen has sent the Trump administration into an exorbitant, potentially escalatory spiral.

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Jacob Stokes

The Center for a New American Security @cnas.bsky.social · Apr 16

NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.

www.cnas.org/press/press-...

CNAS Launches New National Security Human Capital Program to Safeguard America’s Warfighting Edge

Military personnel, political appointees, and civil servants meet the demands of the National Security Strategy by providing the nation with the…

www.cnas.org

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Reposted by Jacob Stokes

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Apr 16

"To help negotiators work out how...Xi Jinping, might react to a scenario...an AI alter ego, dubbed “Xibot”, is being developed...His team has produced three such AI “advisers” that reason in the distinct styles of George Patton, Genghis Khan and Sun Tzu." www.economist.com/science-and-...

AI models could help negotiators secure peace deals

Some are being developed to help end the war in Ukraine

www.economist.com

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 16

Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China www.axios.com/2025/04/16/t...

Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China

"What the f**k is Elon doing there? Make sure he doesn't go," Trump said.

www.axios.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 13

How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance

Extensively reported Reuters piece.

www.reuters.com/markets/how-...

How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance

The combative approach marked a hard turn for Beijing, which had tried to avoid a spiraling trade war.

www.reuters.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 10

In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Exclusive | In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks

A senior Chinese official linked intrusions to escalating U.S. support for Taiwan.

www.wsj.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 9

Not huge numbers, but still interesting and symbolically meaningful (if confirmed).

kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...

Over 160 Chinese nationals fight for Russia, obtained documents show

The documents, obtained by the Kyiv Independent, list the names, personal data, brigades, and ranks of Chinese nationals fighting for Russia.

kyivindependent.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 7

I was pleased to share some thoughts with @afpfr.bsky.social on how Trump's tariffs will shape broader US-China relations and Beijing's approach to the rest of the world. www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Trump tariffs offer opportunity for China

In unleashing global tariffs, President Donald Trump has vowed to remake the world to benefit US workers. One beneficiary could be the country he sees as the primary adversary -- China.

www.france24.com

Reposted by Jacob Stokes

James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · Apr 3

For some other time: issues where people, including me, have disagreed w Larry Summers.

For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...

Quote about universities standing up. "Each act of capitulation makes the next one more likely."

Op-ed text about Harvard and other rich institutions. "If they do not or cannot resist the arbitrary application of government power, who else can?"

Op-ed saying that the resources of rich universities are not there just to be admired.

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 3

"Sources said those fired include Brian Walsh, senior director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, another senior director."

Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...

Trump National Security Council staffers purged, U.S. officials say

One source said the firings come after Laura Loomer presented President Trump with opposition research on NSC staffers she views as neoconservatives or not sufficiently loyal to him.

www.cbsnews.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 3

"the source familiar said they were 'being labeled as an anti-neocon move.'"

www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...

Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit

A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"

www.axios.com

Reposted by Jacob Stokes

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Mar 31

The US has sanctioned a handful of police, national security and government figures in Hong Kong, for actions that "threaten to further erode the autonomy of Hong Kong"

www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...

U.S. Sanctions Six Individuals for Undermining Hong Kong’s Autonomy - United States Department of State

Beijing and Hong Kong officials have used Hong Kong national security laws extraterritorially to intimidate, silence, and harass 19 pro-democracy activists who were forced to flee overseas, including ...

www.state.gov

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Reposted by Jacob Stokes

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · Mar 31

Also, post-2016 Abe did plenty of outreach to China of his own.

Nick Kodama 🌲👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · Mar 31

If we're looking at the big picture, Abe embracing the US as much as he did is more of an exception than the norm. It's always been about hedging.

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 28

Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China

Four Taiwanese soldiers have been jailed for passing information to China in a case that analysts say shows the extent of Beijing’s infiltration of Taipei.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 26

"A review committee said the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence and another company, the Beijing Innovation Wisdom Technology Co. were judged to have developed large AI models and advanced computer chips for military purposes." apnews.com/article/chin...

US adds Chinese tech firms to its export control list, says they sought US knowhow for military use

The U.S. has added dozens of companies to its export control, including more than 50 based in China that it says sought advanced knowhow in supercomputing, artificial intelligence and quantum technolo...

apnews.com

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 26

How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China www.propublica.org/article/elon...

How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China

As a U.S. military contractor, SpaceX sees allowing Chinese ownership as fraught. But it will allow the investment if it comes through secrecy hubs like the Cayman Islands, court records say. “It is c...

www.propublica.org

Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 25

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community:

"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."

www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...