So: Starmer’s not scapegoating migrants - he’s trying to rebuild democratic legitimacy. By delivering visible control, he hopes to earn the mandate to tackle what he really believes matters for cohesion. (6/6)

Crucially, he doesn’t say immigration undermines cohesion. He says the gap between rhetoric and reality - a system out of control, promises betrayed - made people feel abandoned. Fixing that gap is his way of rebuilding the social contract. (5/)

I’m ~75% confident he thinks many voters do blame immigration - and that persuading them otherwise is politically near-impossible.

Support: Reform UK is polling well, and Labour avoids challenging the substance of anti-immigration narratives. Instead, it focuses on delivery and reassurance. (4/)

I’m ~80% confident that Starmer personally sees housing, inequality, and public services as the main drivers of social cohesion — not immigration levels.

Support: Fits general centre-left technocratic worldview.

This is the most important factor in my reasoning. (3/)

That’s my core claim: Starmer doesn’t think immigration controls fix social cohesion directly. He thinks past governments undermined cohesion by promising control and delivering chaos, and that restoring procedural fairness is the precondition for real change. (2/)

Oh but then this suggests that accommodation leads to more voters defecting to the radical right. But I haven't read it yet because I should probably go to sleep...

Oh, just found this, which suggests that in some contexts, accommodation can improve the political prospects of the mainstream left.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

So yeah, if you’re reading this Stephen, this is why I might question this view. Despite trying to stay informed I get little more than vibes from most media outlets. Instead, I want concrete reporting on how the gov is doing re it’s objectives, and how it compares to other governments.

Oh, apparently I can’t quote tweet. It was Bush from the FT being confused about how people could possibly question the view “Labour are governing badly”.

For example, I think the Planning and Infrastructure Bill is a big part of reaching this goal, but if I go the FT’s website I can’t find anything substantial on this topic published more recently than March. Why’s this? I want to read about what happened during the April committee debates.

I want to go to the FT’s website and see everything that’s happening regarding ‘Build 1.5 million new homes in England by the end of this parliament’. I want this section to tell me what the key milestones are for this goal and whether the gov is on track, what’s blocking them, etc.

• Bouldering ≥2×/week (90 min) → 26x
• Zone 2 cardio ≥2×/week (30 min run / 60 min cycle) → 26x
• Stair climb/hike 1×/week → 12x
 – Pack: 5–7kg → 12–15kg by June
• Flexibility check in April
• 2 long hikes (5+ hrs) by June
 – Pack: 8–10kg → 12–15kg

8. Everyone I spoke to was excited about the prospect of joining the EU, and they all mentioned the goal of achieving this by 2030. I hope they succeed. I can't wait to see what EU membership does for living standards