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What Do The Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and "Abundance"?

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 6h

All about "growth" (not being the way to counter populism, among other things) from the brilliant @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social (jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...) including this:

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

What do the public actually think about economic growth, technological change and "abundance"? I’ve done an original survey looking at just this!

There actually is an “anti-growth coalition” and “pro-growth coalition” out there, but the make up of both of these creates some very strange bedfellows…

There's an "anti-growth coalition" and a “pro-growth coalition” out there, it’s just not necessarily the people you think it is

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

TLDR

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

There certainly is a group of voters who have more negative views about growth than others, but these are not necessarily the same people Liz Truss complained about when she was prime minister.

In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Labour voters are most pro-growth group, followed closely by Conservatives.

At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.

This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Best predictor is a person’s occupation.

People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views

Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.

This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

People’s beliefs on growth are almost always unrelated to their left-right economic or socially liberal-conservative beliefs.

Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Another factor analysis, but this time these eight best growth statements alongside economic and social/cultural values questions in @britishelectionstudy.com

There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Factor analysis on these

All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.

What Do The Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and "Abundance"?

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

When people hear “economic growth” what do they think
politicians mean?

Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.

Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 9h

This is just generally very good (new data, new analysis!).

Lots of fun stuff - but the thing that jumped out to me is that Labour's rhetoric on AI *actually reflects their real electorate's positivity on automation* - in contrast to Labour's imaginary electorate (skilled manual workers).

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 10h

What do the public actually think about economic growth, technological change and "abundance"? I’ve done an original survey looking at just this!

There actually is an “anti-growth coalition” and “pro-growth coalition” out there, but the make up of both of these creates some very strange bedfellows…

There's an "anti-growth coalition" and a “pro-growth coalition” out there, it’s just not necessarily the people you think it is

2 1 2

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

TLDR

1

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

There certainly is a group of voters who have more negative views about growth than others, but these are not necessarily the same people Liz Truss complained about when she was prime minister.

In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:

1 2 3

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Labour and Conservative voters tend to swap places as most pro-growth depending on the question

Non-voters stand out as consistently most anti-growth across nearly every question.

Next most anti-growth groups are either Green or Reform UK supporters, depending on the specific question.

1

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Labour voters are most pro-growth group, followed closely by Conservatives.

At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.

This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Best predictor is a person’s occupation.

People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views

Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.

This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

People’s beliefs on growth are almost always unrelated to their left-right economic or socially liberal-conservative beliefs.

Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Another factor analysis, but this time these eight best growth statements alongside economic and social/cultural values questions in @britishelectionstudy.com

There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

Factor analysis on these

All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.

What Do The Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and "Abundance"?

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

We then asked respondents to place their views between a series of two statements on a 0-10 scale, with one side being anti-growth and the other being its pro-growth opposite. These were created to cover the main debates.

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

When people hear “economic growth” what do they think
politicians mean?

Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.

Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.

1 1 1

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

What do the public actually think about economic growth, technological change and "abundance"? I’ve done an original survey looking at just this!

There actually is an “anti-growth coalition” and “pro-growth coalition” out there, but the make up of both of these creates some very strange bedfellows…

There's an "anti-growth coalition" and a “pro-growth coalition” out there, it’s just not necessarily the people you think it is