James Wiley
@jamescwiley.bsky.social
310 followers 740 following 45 posts
Statistician | Independent researcher | interests include evolutionary biology, suicide, psychology, and philosophy of science. Opinions expressed are my own. ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5049-573X
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jamescwiley.bsky.social
1/7 PREPRINT UPDATE – I’ve overhauled my paper looking at correlations between suicide rates and death rates, examining Stengel’s theory that suicide becomes rarer when the value of life within a society diminishes, when death is common. #suicidology
osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
jamescwiley.bsky.social
The COVID natural experiment suggests something very different. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season. When death rates are disrupted, suicide rates are also disrupted:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
jamescwiley.bsky.social
Higher suicide rates often coincide with longer life expectancy. On their own, they are not necessarily a sign of societal decline. For instance, the drop in suicide rates during COVID does not imply that the pandemic was a time of joy or prosperity.

www.researchgate.net/publication/...
jamescwiley.bsky.social
The NYT article is well balanced. Even researchers who examine the sensitive issue of direct causation in suicide would find too little here to justify placing blame on any single factor. It’s an interesting case, but I don’t expect the lawsuit to be successful.
kashhill.bsky.social
Adam Raine, 16, died from suicide in April after months on ChatGPT discussing plans to end his life. His parents have filed the first known case against OpenAI for wrongful death.

Overwhelming at times to work on this story, but here it is. My latest on AI chatbots: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/t...
A Teen Was Suicidal. ChatGPT Was the Friend He Confided In.
www.nytimes.com
jamescwiley.bsky.social
Imagine the IRL version of this. AI body cam on a SWAT officer assesses threat level of a target in a split second and has the officer kill the target before the officer could ever react.
youtu.be/9alJwQG-Wbk?...
jamescwiley.bsky.social
To be fair, the type of content generated by LLMs also plays a role 😛

bsky.app/profile/jame...
jamescwiley.bsky.social
The problem may be worse than it looks. Higher mortality rates suppress suicide rates—likely because deaths from other causes preclude later suicides. Rural areas have higher mortality. So how much higher are suicide rates there, after adjusting for this?

osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by James Wiley
drseanmitchell.bsky.social
🌟New publication!🌟

Feasibility and Acceptability of a Brief Intervention for Youth Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors Among Pediatric Primary Care Providers

It was great to be part of the team on this project. I’m excited about continuing this work! @cmpinciotti.bsky.social

#suicideprevention
Reposted by James Wiley
shirleybwang.bsky.social
Almost exactly one year after starting my lab (!), I'm thrilled to share our first preprint! 🥳 @leilyb.bsky.social @sharinahamm.bsky.social @francesghart.bsky.social

We propose future directions for mathematical, computational, & digital methods to advance suicide research: osf.io/preprints/ps...
jamescwiley.bsky.social
The recommended prompts it gave were also gold:
jamescwiley.bsky.social
I wonder what they’re suggesting here? ☹
jamescwiley.bsky.social
The model seems to be overtrained on erratic online discourse 🤔
jamescwiley.bsky.social
I totally broke a ChatGPT guardrail today:
Reposted by James Wiley
bzubaly.bsky.social
A new piece in @psypost.bsky.social on our recent study published in Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology. Check it out!
https://www.psypost.org/fathers-with-more-dominant-looking-faces-are-more-likely-to-have-sons/
t.co
Reposted by James Wiley
philipcball.bsky.social
This feels a bit like when your child does something amazing and you feel like you want to take the credit but can't really. My new book Alchemy: An Illustrated History has arrived, and it looks *gorgeous*.
Reposted by James Wiley
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
It’s kinda wild how psychologists will just keep developing “paradigms” targeting estimands that are less and less plausibly empirically identified, because somehow that’s the epitome of rigorous theorizing (tm)
matti.vuorre.com
@shuhbillskee.bsky.social, Niklas Johannes & I finally submitted our critique of a "new paradigm" in social media effects research for peer-review at Meta-Psychology. If you're interested in reviewing, please submit a review to [email protected] or e.g. prereview.org, or reply here.
Title: 
"Three objections to a novel paradigm in social media effects research"

Abstract:
The study of social media effects on psychological well-being has reached an impasse: Popular commentators confidently assert that social media are bad for users but research results are mixed and have had little practical impact. In response, one research group has proposed a path forward for the field that moves beyond studying population averages
to find effects that are specific to individuals. We outline three objections to that research agenda. On a methodological level, the key empirical results of this programme—proportions of the population of individuals with negative, null, and positive social media effects—are not appropriately estimated and reported. On a theoretical level, these results do little to advance our understanding of social media and its psychological implications. On a paradigmatic level, this “personalized media effects paradigm” (Valkenburg et al., 2021a, p.74) cannot inform inferences about individuals and therefore does not deliver what it claims. We express concern that this research approach may be contributing to confusing messaging to both societal stakeholders and scientists investigating how social media and well-being might be related. We sincerely hope that describing these objections prompts the field to work together in adopting better practices to develop a better understanding of well-being in the digital age.
jamescwiley.bsky.social
Can I list Coffee as a co-author?
jamescwiley.bsky.social
7/7 In conclusion, accounting for death rates may be necessary before interpreting fluctuations in suicide rates.
jamescwiley.bsky.social
5/7 I offer an alternative interpretation to Stengel’s theory: that each non-suicide-related death removes a potential suicide from the population. Thus the death rate censors the suicide rate.
jamescwiley.bsky.social
4/7 I then test whether the pre-pandemic correlation between death rates and suicide rates can predict the 2020 suicide rates. Results are good:
jamescwiley.bsky.social
3/7 In 2020, the seasonal pattern for death rates was disrupted due to inordinate deaths occurring at an atypical time of year. Suicide rates show an exact inverse break in their seasonality relative to death rates. Is this just a coincidence? 🤔
jamescwiley.bsky.social
2/7 The analysis reveals a consistent inverse seasonal relationship between death rates and suicide rates.