I was on Sky News yesterday to unpack what’s gone wrong for Labour on the economy, the cost of living crisis, and where the party goes from here... 🌹

We’ve got to come together as a team now, reset and focus on how we work collectively to deliver for the country. And get back out on the #LabourDoorStep🌹

Spoke to @skynewsrss.bsky.social earlier today about Labour’s future. I voted for Lucy Powell as she ran the most positive campaign, about hope, unity and bringing people together to win.🌹

And when you factor in the polling evidence, it suggests that to start to revive our poll numbers we need to pivot to a traditional Labour position

I was on Sky News yesterday, I discussed the Labour reshuffle and deputy leadership race, and why this moment matters for Labour’s direction.

Great place to celebrate another year... #ENGvIND

GBP/USD fell sharply too (see chart).

Not quite mini-budget levels, but markets clearly flinched during #PMQs.

The lesson from the mini-budget?

Don’t leave a vacuum when markets are this volatile... or events will end up controlling you!

To show the real-world significance of PMQs today:

UK 10Y gilt yields spiked 12bps (a very sharp move) and the FTSE 100 dropped 0.6% in under an hour...

Both during Reeves’ moment in the chamber.👀

Markets are always watching. And #PMQs still offers big moments or flashpoints!

And crucially, this investment is broadly progressive!🌹

The biggest public service gains go to lower-income households, both in cash terms and as a share of income... #SpendingReview

Another chart, this from ResFo, that shows the scale of change under Labour.🌹

Since Mar 2024, Labour in govt is adding £402bn in extra departmental spending by 29/30 - including £276bn for day-to-day public services.

A clear step change after years of restraint! #SpendingReview

The difference a Labour government makes...

This IFS chart shows it plainly: higher public investment under Labour (outside of major crises like Covid). #SpendingReview

Another interesting chart, likely to feature in IFS/ResFo analysis, in 28/29, households in the top half of the income distribution (approx. £33k–£63k+) gain more in cash terms from tax & benefit changes than lower-income households (<£33k). Driven by NIC cuts and PIP/UC reforms...😬 #SpendingReview

Likewise, from Nov 2026, PIP claimants will need to score 4+ points in one activity to qualify for a daily living award, and HMT expects this to save a huge £4.5bn by 29/30... this seems bigger than previously briefed. #SpendingReview

I suspect IFS and ResFo analysis will pick this up tomorrow anyway... but from 26/27, changes to Universal Credit for new disabled claimants are expected to save HMT £3bn a year by 29/30...🧐 #SpendingReview

This is probably the most significant line in the entire #SpendingReview as it pretty much confirms what the IFS and ResFo suggested in their pre-analysis...
that as Health, Education & Defence are protected it means real-terms cuts for the rest of up to 3.4% a year... if correct

Corridors of Uncertainty:

To preserve the OBR’s forecasted £9.9bn fiscal headroom:

- 10Y gilts must average at or below 4.8% (yellow line).
- 30Y gilts at or below 5.2% (yellow line).

Above that - but below 5.4% / 5.8% (red line)... lies the corridor of uncertainty!