jim
@jamesoofou.bsky.social
Pinned
jim
@jamesoofou.bsky.social
· Sep 30
SPX Sep17'26 9800 CALL
Spun up a new division at jimfund today, the Prescience Division
December 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Spun up a new division at jimfund today, the Prescience Division
People underestimating adoption of AI and impact on productivity in 2026
December 9, 2025 at 5:13 PM
People underestimating adoption of AI and impact on productivity in 2026
the idea of random employees writing reports, doing analysis will soon be of the past
December 9, 2025 at 5:03 PM
the idea of random employees writing reports, doing analysis will soon be of the past
SPX Sep17'26 9800 CALL
September 30, 2025 at 10:41 AM
SPX Sep17'26 9800 CALL
There's a certain class of prediction markets where we have figured out how to price it so well that we don't actually have to make the markets any more. Just posing the questions allows us to define the shape of the future. This is very valuable.
September 28, 2025 at 4:12 PM
There's a certain class of prediction markets where we have figured out how to price it so well that we don't actually have to make the markets any more. Just posing the questions allows us to define the shape of the future. This is very valuable.
figuring out the most useful markets
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
September 28, 2025 at 4:10 PM
figuring out the most useful markets
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
23% chance. RSG = Random Seed Glitchless
Must be Java version
CAN:
Can use scaffolds or similar.
CAN'T:
Cannot slow down game time or stuff like that.
Can't get human help.
Can't reverse engine...
manifold.markets
September 27, 2025 at 11:24 PM
bought 215 SPY calls
September 27, 2025 at 11:13 PM
bought 215 SPY calls
