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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Sep 5

Find more details in my blog from last week smf.co.uk/commentary_p... (3/3)

Everyday I'm reshuffling | SMF analysis of past reshuffles

Could as many as 2 in 5 frontbenchers face the chop this reshuffle? SMF analysis looks at the evidence from previous reshuffles.

smf.co.uk

Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Sep 5

...there had already been some 'accidental churn' which meant 10-15% of govt had already been swapped out since July 2024. To stay in line with other 'big but infrequent' reshufflers (Blair, Major) perhaps 30-40% of the rest of the frontbench may find themselves swapped (2/3)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Sep 5

13 out of 28 cabinet posts taken by new people - in line with a the 'big but infrequent' reshuffles we expected from Starmer so far, with 40-50% turnover. For the junior ranks...(1/3)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Aug 28

Charts galore in my analysis of reshuffles past - could Starmer really change up to 40% of his front bench?

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Everyday I'm reshuffling | SMF analysis of past reshuffles

Could as many as 2 in 5 frontbenchers face the chop this reshuffle? SMF analysis looks at the evidence from previous reshuffles.

www.smf.co.uk

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Aug 14

Congratulations to those receiving results today, but worrying indicators for the post-16 education sector

Social Market Foundation @smfthinktank.bsky.social · Aug 14

📚Level 3 Results Day analysis📚

Key points:
🔵Regional gaps in university entry continue to widen
🔵Progress on widening access has stalled
🔵Lower tariff unis still squeezed as higher and medium tariff institutions expand to plug budget gaps

🧵for details

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Reposted by Jamie Gollings

Social Market Foundation @smfthinktank.bsky.social · Aug 13

For policymakers and the HE sector, #ResultsDay reveals a great deal about
- how the higher education system is functioning
- who it is reaching
- how well it is navigating a turbulent financial environment.

4️⃣ trends to keep in mind when the results and UCAS data land tomorrow🧵

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Jul 29

Want to raise some money whilst discouraging the most harmful forms of an activity and protecting a UK heritage industry? Raise gambling taxes, with a higher rate on 24/7 remote gaming says
@smfthinktank.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/4d20...

Rachel Reeves faces calls to increase taxes on £15bn gambling industry

Treasury moves to streamline levies on bookmakers and reflect ‘exponential’ growth in online betting

www.ft.com

Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

3) Does this overperformance of the polls reflects standard by-election behaviour of kicking the government?
We will have to wait for more electoral tests here and elsewhere to tell. (12/12)

Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

2) Are the polls currently failing to capture Reform’s true strength in the country? Possibly, it will be interesting to see how polls shift after these results. (11/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

That would put the 15-20 seats that benefit it at greater risk, including Ministers such as Alison McGovern and high profile MPs such as Angela and Maria Eagle and Dan Carden all at risk if it is breached. (10/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

1) Does this mean that the Mersey Wall has been breached? That the effects dragging down Reform in this patch of the North West have dissipated? (9/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

Reform did about 4% better in R&H than their UK average in GE24. With a current polling average of 25%, a result of 29% in the by-election might be expected. Their result of 38.7% blew this out of the water. This prompts 3 questions. (8/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

With all these factors combined, Runcorn and Helsby, and many seats in or near Merseyside, should have been more fertile territory for Reform in GE24. This by-election win shows that this may well now be the case. (7/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

- It’s 97% white vs an average across seats in the model of 82% (although it hasn’t fallen as much as elsewhere)
- 29% of people have degrees vs an average of 34%
- 20% of people are on Universal Credit vs an average of 17%
(6/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

Reform took 18.1% of the R&H vote in the 2024 general election. That was higher than their overall UK vote share of 14.3%, but lower than the 20% the model would have expected. The red dam may therefore have shaved 1.9% off Reform’s vote in GE24. Why? (5/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

Whether the Mersey Wall was thanks to political culture, the avoidance of The Sun or the joys of having 100s of Labour politicos clogging the waterfront in Liverpool once a year, we can’t yet say. But the trend was clear. (4/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

We built a model that predicts Reform’s vote share based upon the demographics, economics and state of public services in a given seat. Reform underperformed almost everywhere in Merseyside in GE24 compared to what the model would have expected. (3/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

Our recent analysis of populism uncovered a ‘Mersey Wall’, holding back the rising tide of Reform in GE24. Runcorn and Helsby (R&H) is determinedly part of Cheshire, but this political phenomenon stretched to its doors. (2/12)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · May 2

This by-election shows the ‘Mersey wall’ is breached
This result demonstrates that Reform’s strength in the polls was able to translate to votes. This will be of concern enough to Labour, but the geography of this loss portends bigger risks…(map explained below) (1/12)

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Reposted by Jamie Gollings

Social Market Foundation @smfthinktank.bsky.social · Apr 17

We know what populism is - but what is the data behind it?🧐

In our second video on Understanding Populism,
@jamiegollings.bsky.social sets out what defines Reform-leaning areas, regional variations and where centre-ground parties need to respond.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSiT...

Understanding Populism: The data behind populism

YouTube video by Social Market Foundation

www.youtube.com

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Apr 10

...We found that places with fewer degree holders, a large but shrinking white population, and higher crime were more likely to vote reform. See more here smf.co.uk/publications... or in this series of video explainers youtube.com/watch?v=FmzF... (2/2)

Understanding populism: What is populism?

YouTube video by Social Market Foundation

youtube.com

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Apr 10

Starmer promised in a speech today to listen to communities 'failed' by politics. Our @smfthinktank.bsky.social latest research on populism explores some of the causes of this rising dissatisfaction with mainstream parties.... (1/2)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Apr 8

For the full findings, head to the SMF website, and let me know if you have any thoughts or questions.
smf.co.uk/publications... (8/8)

Understanding Populism: Populism through the prism of policy | SMF

Populism is on the rise - but what is it, what drives it, and how can we measure who is more likely to support it?

smf.co.uk

Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Apr 8

Next steps include diving into the key drivers of populism we found - connecting Whitehall economic metrics to how people feel about their lives in these places, crime, community and educational status. We will also carry out seat level analysis (e.g. below). (7/8)

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Jamie Gollings @jamiegollings.bsky.social · Apr 8

Historic political culture also plays a role. In Merseyside, for example, Reform did a lot worse in 2024 than the model suggested. The South West, too, saw a systematically lower Reform vote, as the chart shows. perhaps due to the longstanding affinity to the Lib Dems. (6/8)

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