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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 5d

… & its inability to protect its own territory while undermining the Kremlin's narrative of a robust, sanctions-proof economy. These attacks help erode the silent contract of political apathy for economic security on which the whole legitimacy of the Kremlin has relied for the last 25 years. 🔚

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 5d

◾The impact of #Ukraine's strikes on #Russia's domestic political situation: The attacks have caused fuel shortages in multiple Russian regions, with reports of long lines at gas stations, price hikes and even fuel rationing in places like Crimea. The strikes help expose Russia's vulnerability… ⤵️

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 5d

Fuel shortages disrupt Ru's ability to move reinforcements, ammunition and food supplies to the frontline. To protect valuable oil infrastructure, Russia could be forced to divert air defence systems away from frontline positions, leaving its military assets more vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks ⤵️

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 5d

◾The impact of #Ukraine's strikes on #Russia's military: Most of Russian military equipment and logistics networks operate on diesel. Less fuel means armoured vehicles and logistical trucks must limit manoeuvres or operate under severe rationing. ⤵️

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 5d

… 🇺🇦 is directly attacking this financial lifeline and trying to trigger a logistical breakdown that undermines #Russia's ability to wage a war of manoeuvre across the 1,200km frontline. Ukraine’s strategy aims to convert economic damage into military (and political) vulnerability for the Kremlin. ⤵️

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 5d

My comments for The i paper on the military and political impact of Ukraine's #drone strikes on Russia's oil refineries:
inews.co.uk/news/how-ukr...

◾#Ukraine's strategy: Oil and gas revenues are the primary source of funding for #Russia’s war effort. By targeting refineries and export terminals… ⤵️

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

‘The key challenge would be attributing the attack to Russia with a high degree of certainty and then having a unanimous political decision from all Nato members to trigger a collective military response.’ 7/7

Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

‘A full-scale conflict could begin with a series of escalating “grey zone” incidents that cross a critical threshold. For example, a major cyberattack that cripples a country's power grid or a drone strike that causes civilian casualties.’ 6/7

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

‘While #Nato has publicly stated that hybrid attacks could trigger Article 5, this ambiguity creates a political dilemma for Nato members, who must reach consensus on whether an attack is severe enough to warrant a collective military response.’ 5/7

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

‘A traditional military attack, as defined by Article 5, is clear. A cyberattack on critical infrastructure, or a GPS jamming incident that disrupts air traffic, is not.’ 4/7

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

‘By operating in this “grey zone” that deliberately blurs the lines between peace and war, Russia is forcing Nato to grapple with how to respond in a unified, decisive way to threats that fall short of a traditional armed attack.’ 3/7

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

‘The systematic nature of #Russia’s incursions within a very short time period suggests a broader campaign to destabilise #Nato’s eastern and northern flanks and test the Nato’s overall resolve.’ 2/7

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12d

My comments for @telegraphnews.bsky.social on how #Russia’s #hybrid tactics aim to destabilise European societies and test #NATO’s resolve ⬇️ 1/7

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 14d

"I think Trump is also looking for an off-ramp to maintain this image of being an effective peace broker by trying to shift the blame to #Russia and the Europeans ... so if there's a continued failure to bring an end to the war in #Ukraine, it's not because of him." 2/2

Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 14d

My comments for @reuters.com reacting to #Trump's seeming rhetorical shift in #Ukraine's favour:

“It's dawning on Trump, the fact that Putin has been stringing him along," Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow in Chatham House's Ukraine Forum, told Reuters. 1/2

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Sep 7

Ukrzaliznytsiya, the Ukrainian railway service, embodies and champions the image of Ukrainians being ‘made of steel’ (zalizni). In the face of an erratic American president and a Chinese leader heralding an alternative world order, Europe must step up, show its iron fist and drop the velvet glove.

Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Sep 7

It matters for people like me living in a safe part of the world to experience what family, friends and colleagues experience daily. It adds perspective to the analytical and advocacy work we do. Saying goodbye to them is not easy, particularly on this day.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Sep 7

The Kremlin’s objective to destroy #Ukraine as a state and nation has remained consistent and unambiguous. Meanwhile, despite the diplomatic frenzy of the past few weeks, European leaders are still ambivalent and lacking resolve.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Sep 7

On my way back from #Kyiv.
Tonight #Russia launched its largest air attack since Feb 2022, with 810 drones & 13 missiles. For the first time, Kyiv’s main govt building was hit. As of now, strikes in residential areas have resulted in at least 4 people dying, including an infant, & 44 being injured.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Aug 29

As a result of state repression & propaganda means that for most Russians, exposing this reality is either impossible (they don't know or are too afraid) or irrelevant (they believe that self-sacrifice for the state is a noble endeavour or at least that Ru cannot politically afford to lose the war).

Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Aug 29

3️⃣ According to the UK Ministry of Defence estimates, more than one million Russian troops have already been killed or injured since 2022 and it would take Moscow 4.5 years (and 2 million more Russian casualties) to capture the territory it has annexed.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Aug 29

▪️ This deliberate tactic to overwhelm Ukraine with its numerical advantage - even at the cost of enormous casualties – is based on the assumption that Ukraine's Western allies will tire before Russia's resources are exhausted.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Aug 29

2️⃣ Though its summer offensive has been underwhelming, #Russia has been able to make incremental gains. The Russian military has suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses. But Russia has a notable demographic advantage, allowing it to absorb those losses at a faster rate than Ukraine.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Aug 29

▪️The advance also aims to demoralise the Ukrainian military and civilians and put pressure on the Ukrainian government by seeking to increase the number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions in exchange for ending hostilities.

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Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · Aug 29

▪️The Kremlin has consistently sought to gain more territory to double down on the narrative of Russia's invincibility and strengthen its bargaining position in peace negotiations (potentially in terms of 'land swaps').

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