Jonathan Caverley
@jcaverley.bsky.social
Political scientist who is a visiting senior fellow at IISS and professor (on leave) at the US Naval War College. Sure it works in practice, but how does it work in theory? Opinions are mine.
The central challenge is ensuring that growing strategic divergence does not undermine the very complementarities that make this new equilibrium effective. This requires clear, consistent statements of interests and reliably following through on commitments.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The Atlantic Alliance: Diverging Interests, Converging Policies
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s re-election have prompted fears about the health and durability of the NATO alliance. Such fears appear excessive. Alliance members are ...
www.tandfonline.com
November 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM
The central challenge is ensuring that growing strategic divergence does not undermine the very complementarities that make this new equilibrium effective. This requires clear, consistent statements of interests and reliably following through on commitments.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
This is not zero-sum. A stronger European defence-industrial base enhances NATO deterrence and gives the United States the flexibility needed to manage increasing pressures elsewhere.
November 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM
This is not zero-sum. A stronger European defence-industrial base enhances NATO deterrence and gives the United States the flexibility needed to manage increasing pressures elsewhere.
A complementary division of labour is emerging:
Europe is becoming the Alliance’s industrial foundation: munitions, ground systems, air defence, and high-volume manufacturing.
The US continues to provide strategic enablers without rival: long-range strike, aerospace, and cutting-edge R&D.
Europe is becoming the Alliance’s industrial foundation: munitions, ground systems, air defence, and high-volume manufacturing.
The US continues to provide strategic enablers without rival: long-range strike, aerospace, and cutting-edge R&D.
November 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM
A complementary division of labour is emerging:
Europe is becoming the Alliance’s industrial foundation: munitions, ground systems, air defence, and high-volume manufacturing.
The US continues to provide strategic enablers without rival: long-range strike, aerospace, and cutting-edge R&D.
Europe is becoming the Alliance’s industrial foundation: munitions, ground systems, air defence, and high-volume manufacturing.
The US continues to provide strategic enablers without rival: long-range strike, aerospace, and cutting-edge R&D.
Drawing on alliance theory and extensive data on defense-industrial expansion across Europe, we show that today’s strategic divergence is creating a healthier equilibrium—one that increases Europe’s autonomy, strengthens NATO’s collective capacity, and supports U.S. global interests.
November 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Drawing on alliance theory and extensive data on defense-industrial expansion across Europe, we show that today’s strategic divergence is creating a healthier equilibrium—one that increases Europe’s autonomy, strengthens NATO’s collective capacity, and supports U.S. global interests.
Reposted by Jonathan Caverley
The black box of academic publishing is dark inside indeed - and I've not even mentioned Manucript Central yet - but it also contains other academics doing their best as editors to steward your work with care and respect.
September 6, 2025 at 11:35 PM
The black box of academic publishing is dark inside indeed - and I've not even mentioned Manucript Central yet - but it also contains other academics doing their best as editors to steward your work with care and respect.
Finally I argue here that because fleets take so long to develop, cost so much to build and operate, and last a very long time; they can shape a state's grand strategy as much as vice versa: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
AUKUS: When naval procurement sets grand strategy - Jonathan D. Caverley, 2023
Traditionally, a grand strategy lays out the trade-offs a state must make in pursuit of security, thereby setting all aspects of foreign policy, from trade deal...
journals.sagepub.com
June 3, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Finally I argue here that because fleets take so long to develop, cost so much to build and operate, and last a very long time; they can shape a state's grand strategy as much as vice versa: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Clever research design on an important subject from
Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau-Ricard, and Julien Malizard: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau-Ricard, and Julien Malizard: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
The Influence of Strategic Procurement on the Performance of the European Naval Defense Industry
The naval defense industry plays a crucial role in national security, particularly in the context of global rearmament and shared threats. However, the industry’s performance in Europe has been hin...
www.tandfonline.com
June 3, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Clever research design on an important subject from
Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau-Ricard, and Julien Malizard: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau-Ricard, and Julien Malizard: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
On the academic side, Panle Jia Barwick and Myrta Kalouptsidi discuss their work on China's shipbuilding industrial policy. www.aeaweb.org/research/ind...
The returns to industrial policy
Panle Jia Barwick and Myrto Kalouptsidi discuss how China subsidized its rise to becoming the world’s leading shipbuilder.
www.aeaweb.org
June 3, 2025 at 8:59 AM
On the academic side, Panle Jia Barwick and Myrta Kalouptsidi discuss their work on China's shipbuilding industrial policy. www.aeaweb.org/research/ind...
Two good think tank reports cover the specifics of US cooperating with allies (especially ROK and Japan) that also cover the general political economy of naval shipbuilding. From @csis.org : www.csis.org/analysis/ide...
and from @stimsoncenter.bsky.social:
www.stimson.org/2025/waypoin...
and from @stimsoncenter.bsky.social:
www.stimson.org/2025/waypoin...
Identifying Pathways for U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation with Northeast Asian Allies
U.S. naval shipbuilding faces production and capacity constraints that undermine fleet readiness. Closer cooperation with allies like Japan and South Korea on ship construction and repair could help c...
www.csis.org
June 3, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Two good think tank reports cover the specifics of US cooperating with allies (especially ROK and Japan) that also cover the general political economy of naval shipbuilding. From @csis.org : www.csis.org/analysis/ide...
and from @stimsoncenter.bsky.social:
www.stimson.org/2025/waypoin...
and from @stimsoncenter.bsky.social:
www.stimson.org/2025/waypoin...
Been working for the military way too long when my first reaction to the photo (not the excellent message) is "wonder what a pope challenge coin would look like?"
May 14, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Been working for the military way too long when my first reaction to the photo (not the excellent message) is "wonder what a pope challenge coin would look like?"