Somebody liked one of my posts, I enjoyed it more than a thumbs up from a stranger in real life.

1/12 The challenge in Africa is that electricity is scarce, unreliable, and expensive. Renewable energy is seen as the silver bullet, with expectations that Chinese private firms will fill the gap. Is this likely and what could it mean for Chinese State Capitalism?

Andrew Batson who is a generous and kind person really did a great job talking to Jude on the Pekingology pod. It happened a while back, but one insight he shared that has stayed with me since is that many Chinese people believe their nation should be at the forefront of the world.

🌍 1/12 China is a leader in green tech and renewable energy, playing a crucial role in advancing global green economies. It seems to be an edge of the next phase of foreign policy. #GreenTech #RenewableEnergy

China's leaders are emphasizing stimulus to boost demand (still) and stabilize markets, & boost trade. This may prove to be a significant shift reminiscent of post-2008 policies. It also may not. The talk the talk, walk the walk ratio is a bit skewed. And policy tools quite blunt #ChinaEconomy

Politburo signals more support in 2025. That’s fine, but really some of the challenges need leaving alone (real estate), some are exacerbated by loser policy (credit misallocation), some aren’t really impacted by the policy tools (skittish sentiment, and local government austerity).

Deflation continues. Core prices been at 3.5 yr low for a while, and deflation at factory gate been a reality for most of post-pandemic period. Obviously it forces up real costs of borrowing. Hard to tell if it’s mostly due to weak demand or excess supply. Probably both in some sectors.

China's economy and its propgating institutions (trade and industry and finance) are unravelling across very complex and contradictory bargains with local authorities, private firms etc. There is no longer the kind of uniformity that centralism offered

The gradual rise of private firms in recent decades in China has scrambled the centralism-SOE binary. They have been brought into the Party’s orbit and is now a key contibutor to the New Productive Forces and big country diplomacy and will be tasked with renewable energy support in global south.

Part of the reason consumption has been underwhelming in China is that the policy focus has seemingly pivoted away from the affluent, and the top 20% of income earners control around 60% of savings and account for 55% of consumption. But sentiment is varied across the country by different groups.

I find discussions with African policymakers and businesses hellbent on ring fencing China’s trade and investment in Africa from China’s internal domestic economic adjustment so tiring. The past decade has illustrated this is not doing the job.

30% of steel consumed by China now used in machinery, off setting soft demand from infrastructure and construction.

China will hit 3,000GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030 reshaping its connection with the rest of the world.

Half of the MOUs I have seen that were signed between Chinese and African firms during FOCAC were in renewable energy. It is here where China will position its bonafides as a responsible global leader wedded to sustainable development.

Chinese leadership in renewable energy is leading to a rise in Chinese investment in Africa. Up 10bn since 2019. It’s now second most sizable sector. And, akin to chinas role in building out 3G networks, this will be a space more and more dominated by Chinese firms.