Jerome Drevon
@jeromed.bsky.social
3.9K followers 370 following 94 posts
Senior analyst on Jihad and Modern Conflict at International Crisis Group (ICG). Associate at Graduate Institute Geneva. Interested in armed groups. Books on Jihad in Egypt and Syria (openaccess). Forthcoming book on HTS
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jeromed.bsky.social
Five years in the making, based on dozens of travel to Idlib under HTS control, multiple interviews with Ahmad al-Sharaa, his closest associates, other factions, ministers, dissidents, opponents, civil society, diplomats, and more
www.hurstpublishers.com/book/transfo...
jeromed.bsky.social
In addition to the typos, also forgot the main argument!
The book’s main argument is that HTS was "transformed by the people". The constraints of Idlib’s social context and of the international environment before the 2024 takeover of Idlib forced the group to change, in very lasting ways
jeromed.bsky.social
The book is available in Europe, on Kindle in Europe and the US, and in the US in early November
jeromed.bsky.social
We conclude with an epilogue, written in spring 2025, warning of the rise of a new populist trend in Syria, one driven from the bottom up, seeking supremacy and revenge. This emerging dynamic signals a shift that could reshape the post-HTS landscape in unpredictable and destabilising ways
jeromed.bsky.social
We also examine the tensions in Idlib before 2024: the rise of a populist current pushing for stricter implementation of Islamic law, and how HTS responded. Even more telling was HTS’s handling of last year’s protest movement, which demanded political opening, reforms, and an end to abuses.
jeromed.bsky.social
We also explore HTS’s Salafism in depth showing how, without abandoning Salafism, the group stripped it of most of its political implications. This enables us to analyse HTS’s religious governance, and its approach to religious minorities, in essentially non-religious, even “secularised,” terms.
jeromed.bsky.social
The book details how HTS imposed itself over rival factions - especially mainstream Islamists like Ahrar al-Sham - waged war on al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, and brought foreign fighters under its control.
jeromed.bsky.social
In the conclusion, we also compare HTS’s trajectory to European far-right movements that sought to “de-demonise” themselves, showing how strategies of rebranding and normalisation extend well beyond Syria (the comparison might not please everyone!)
jeromed.bsky.social
This change proved lasting and political, with no possible return though, paradoxically, it was largely unintended at the outset.
Rather than comparing HTS to other Islamist movements, we place it in the context of a revolutionary situation par excellence: the last phase of the French Revolution.
jeromed.bsky.social
The arrival of Ahmad al-Sharaa in NYC for the UNGA is a timely moment to highlight our new book, published a few weeks ago in Europe and in a month ago in the US (already on Kindle). What lessons can we draw from the past? A threat
jeromed.bsky.social
Our book is finally out in the UK and Europe! (also in a week or so on the kindle in the US, and early November for the hardback in North America). You have read parts of the first chapters on google book: www.google.fr/books/editio...
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
hurstpublishers.bsky.social
Congratulations Patrick Haenni and @jeromed.bsky.social, Transformed by the People is out now👏

‘Essential reading.’ @irishtimes.com

‘Haenni and Drevon have done the impossible… a gem, a superb, edifying and eye-opening account.’—Robert Malley

25% off w/code TRANSFORMED25➡️ tinyurl.com/mb4nrc7n
A stack of copies of Transformed by the People with the Somerset House courtyard visible in the background. The cover features an image of Ahmad al-Sharaa waving to crowds. There is white and yellow text that reads 'Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria. Patrick Haenni & Jerome Drevon.'
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
sebastianvanbaalen.se
Really cool work out by @andresuribe.bsky.social and colleauges on estimating the prevalence of criminal governance in Latin America ⤵️
poppublicsphere.bsky.social
NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!!

#Criminal #Governance in #Latin #America: Prevalence and Correlates

By @andresuribe.bsky.social, Benjamin Lessing, Noah Schouela & Elayne Stecher

doi.org/10.1017/S153...
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
hurstpublishers.bsky.social
As POTUS meets Syrian President Al-Sharaa, the world asks how an Al-Qaeda affiliated jihadi group evolved into the movement rebuilding Syria post-Assad. Find out how in 'Transformed by the People' by @jeromed.bsky.social & Patrick Haenni. Pre-order here ➡️ tinyurl.com/mr9w9tex

tinyurl.com/4cbrp9de
Trump to Lift Sanctions on Syria and Meet With New President
President Trump, on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, said he made the decision after speaking to the Saudi crown prince. The president is trying to drum up Saudi investment in the U.S.
tinyurl.com
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
laiabalcells.bsky.social
So excited to see this out. Stathis and I presented a first version of this paper at APSA in 2010.
cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social -

Ideology and Revolution in Civil Wars: The “Marxist Paradox” - cup.org/3GrU7cV

- @laiabalcells.bsky.social & STATHIS N. KALYVAS

#FirstView
Banner featuring the hashtag #OpenAccess above the name 'American Political Science Review', set against a green and blue background.
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
crisisgroup.org
NEW OP-ED | Syria’s Uncertain New Order

Many are worried about the possibility of a return to a one-party state—much like that of the Assad regime. But many Syrians perceive their new leader, correctly, as a radical pragmatist, writes @jeromed.bsky.social.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Syria’s Uncertain New Order | Crisis Group
Can Shara’s Government Unite a Country Ready to Explode?
www.crisisgroup.org
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
foreignaffairs.com
Read @jeromed.bsky.social on the factors that will make it more difficult for Syria’s new government to consolidate its hold over the country—and to get all of the country’s constituent groups on board:
Syria’s Uncertain New Order
Can Shara’s government unite a country ready to explode?
www.foreignaffairs.com
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
syrianotes.bsky.social
… Sharaa is seen as a radical pragmatist, willing to make concessions and abandon alliances in pursuit of power.

But it does not seem Syria will again become a one-state autocracy, even if that were an outcome that Shara wanted, @jeromed.bsky.social argues.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/syrias...
Syria’s Uncertain New Order
Can Shara’s government unite a country ready to explode?
www.foreignaffairs.com
Reposted by Jerome Drevon
crisisgroup.org
NEW Q&A | A Glimmer of Peace in Syria’s North East

An accord between Damascus’s interim government and the Kurdish-led SDF could mark a shift in Syria’s post-Assad transition. Crisis Group experts explain what the deal contains and what it means for the region.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
A Glimmer of Peace in Syria’s North East | Crisis Group
An accord between the interim government in Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces could mark a turn for the better in the country’s post-Assad transition. In this Q&A, Crisis Group exp...
www.crisisgroup.org