Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 16h

'Mortgaging one’s whole lifestyle through an app, or what some people glibly refer to as “Klarnamaxxing,” is increasingly common among social media users seeking to cosplay in the glamour they see online. And they’ve turned their very indebtedness into braggadocio.' www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/m...

They Got to Live a Life of Luxury. Then Came the Fine Print.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Jesse Felder

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 18h

Here's the consensus as I see it (from the folks on TV).

There is a bubble, just a matter of what inning we are in. None see us in the 8th or 9th inning.

Everyone of them thinks they will get out before it bursts. They don't say it but they imply it.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 19h

‘Food price rises have exceeded core price rises in every country except the Czech Republic and China since 2019.’ www.ft.com/content/de31...

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Reposted by Jesse Felder

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21h

BTIG: CBOE dispersion index “typically rises when the S&P falls .. Recently, however, it has been rising with a rising S&P 500. It is now the highest since mid-April, when the SPX was ~5800. While we don't expect to see a pullback that far,.. expect at least a 50 DMA test (~6500) sooner than later.”

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 21h

Dot-Com Fears Rise With Tech Stocks Seeing $100 Billion Swings www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 21h

‘The amount of debt tied to artificial intelligence has ballooned to $1.2 trillion, making it the largest segment in the investment-grade market, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 21h

’Before the “big, beautiful bubble” ultimately bursts, this bull market has a period of "rational exuberance" ahead of it that will take the S&P 500 to 9,000 by the end of 2026.’ www.axios.com/2025/10/06/s...

S&P could hit 9,000 by end of 2026

Wall Street thinks the AI-driven bull market has plenty of upside before the bubble pops.

www.axios.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 22h

‘Oracle became the best-performing megacap stock of 2025 after it forecast $381B in revenue over the 5Y from its cloud server business. But internal documents show it has had razor-thin gross profit margins, lower than what many analysts have estimated.‘ www.theinformation.com/articles/int...

Internal Oracle Data Show Financial Challenge of Renting Out Nvidia Chips

Oracle became the best-performing megacap stock of 2025 after its executives said last month that the once-sleepy database firm will generate an astonishing $381 billion in revenue from renting out sp...

www.theinformation.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 22h

‘Uncertainty over economic policy has returned to levels reached during the 2020 pandemic and, more recently, the tariff announcements of this past spring.’ realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut... by @joebrusuelas.bsky.social

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 22h

‘If you're waiting for the consumer to make a call about a turn in the business cycle, you're likely waiting too long. The recession red light is already lit by the time consumption contracts, and sometimes it does not fall at all.’ www.businessinsider.com/recession-co... by @renmacllc.bsky.social

Americans are spending like there's no tomorrow. That may not be enough to prevent a recession.

Consumers are still spending like mad. But increasing unemployment and a decline in business investment are worrying recession signals.

www.businessinsider.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 22h

'Each 1GW of AI computing capacity costs about $50bn to deploy in today’s prices, making the total cost about $1tn. OpenAI is burning through cash on infrastructure, chips and talent, with nowhere near the capital required to fund these grand plans.’ www.ft.com/content/5f6f...

OpenAI’s computing deals top $1tn

Partners including Nvidia, AMD and Oracle have signed up to Sam Altman’s huge bet on the future of artificial intelligence

www.ft.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 22h

‘The HGNSI recently stood at 74.1%, which is at the 98th percentile of its historical distribution since 2000.‘ www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 23h

“Fixed-strike volatility has actually increased quite a bit in the past few weeks, and implied volatility is elevated relative to realized volatility metrics.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 23h

“A higher gross leverage ratio indicates greater risk is being taken, while a significantly positive or negative net leverage ratio indicates a fund is taking a lot of directional exposure. Right now? a LOT of bullish directional risk is being taken (everyone is long!).” www.dailychartbook.com/p/774

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Reposted by Jesse Felder

George Pearkes @peark.es · 23h

Absolute madness.

Chart showing the performance of an equal weight index of four quantum stocks (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, QUBT) over past two years. The index has risen 3671% since last October.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

NEW POST: How Do You Measure A Bubble? thefelderreport.com/2025/10/04/h...

How Do You Measure A Bubble?

Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. PODCAST Ho...

thefelderreport.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘The limitations of the Internet as a dataset and the evidence of GPT-5’s incremental progress have led many of AI’s leading thinkers to update their timelines for AGI. And yet at the same time we’re spending as though exactly the opposite evidence has come in.’ dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-capex-n...

AI CapEx Now Hinges on Deus ex machina

We are making great strides on AI adoption, but new investment is largely AGI focused. This is surprising, since luminaries have been walking back their timelines. And future science may be at risk.

dcahn.substack.com

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Reposted by Jesse Felder

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 1d

APOLLO: “Bank of America data shows that the labor market continued to deteriorate in September.” 👀

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘Employment at small businesses declined by 48,400 jobs in September. Using anonymized data from 533,000 small businesses to track employment, Intuit found employment decreased in 19 of 20 states, across all eight US regions and in all 12 sectors tracked.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘Another day, another mega deal in the rarified air of Big Tech's artificial intelligence, and as night follows day, new record highs for the U.S. tech sector, semiconductor index and wider Nasdaq.’ www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

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Reposted by Jesse Felder

Michael Santoli @michaelsantoli.bsky.social · 1d

This phase of the market advance has been led by higher-volatility, lower-quality stocks. Here's the S&P 500 quality-factor ETF relative to the broad S&P 500, back to a 10-year relative-performance low.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘I have to say that if I was able to create tens of billions of dollars of stock market value just by announcing deals, and then capture a lot of that value for myself, I would do that, and to the exclusion of most other activities. OpenAI can do that, and does.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

“It’s gold-plated Fomo. Gold has become so big . . . that you cannot ignore it. There becomes a level when it becomes impossible not to own it.”
www.ft.com/content/54dc...

‘Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally

Price has rocketed 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in

www.ft.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘The market knows the AI bubble has to burst eventually, but the question is how much longer it can inflate before the chewing gum splatters on traders’ faces.’ www.barrons.com/articles/ai-...

How Much Longer Can the AI Bubble Last? Inside Wall Street’s Great Debate.

Stocks aren’t cheap and there is a lot enthusiasm about Nvidia, OpenAI and tech. Wall Street is split on when the AI stock bubble could burst.

www.barrons.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

’The embarrassing episode underscores the dangers posed to consultancies by using AI technology, particularly the danger of “hallucinations”.’ www.ft.com/content/934c...

Deloitte issues refund for error-ridden Australian government report that used AI

Big Four firm will repay final instalment after incorrect references and citations found in document

www.ft.com

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