@jeuasommenulle.bsky.social
The weight of a bird landing on it is enough to move the Earth
So the wait is over & the market "happy" (or no too unhappy) abt the Swiss proposal for UBS:
- full deduction of subs
- DTA/goodwill deduction
Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement
BUT
Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group
- full deduction of subs
- DTA/goodwill deduction
Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement
BUT
Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group
June 6, 2025 at 3:30 PM
So the wait is over & the market "happy" (or no too unhappy) abt the Swiss proposal for UBS:
- full deduction of subs
- DTA/goodwill deduction
Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement
BUT
Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group
- full deduction of subs
- DTA/goodwill deduction
Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement
BUT
Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group
You've been eagerly waiting for it, holding your breath.... here it, the annual ShitBanksDoIndex
Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)
Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)
June 2, 2025 at 8:34 AM
You've been eagerly waiting for it, holding your breath.... here it, the annual ShitBanksDoIndex
Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)
Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)
Caltagirone will soon become the first human to be regulated under the Financial Conglomerate Directive (2002/87/EC)
May 28, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Caltagirone will soon become the first human to be regulated under the Financial Conglomerate Directive (2002/87/EC)
classic wirecard modus operandi
May 22, 2025 at 3:31 PM
classic wirecard modus operandi
Insideparadeplatz isn't always correct - so careful - but they just make 2 big claims which directly contradict Julius Baer mgt:
- it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls
- the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)
- it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls
- the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)
May 22, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Insideparadeplatz isn't always correct - so careful - but they just make 2 big claims which directly contradict Julius Baer mgt:
- it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls
- the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)
- it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls
- the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)
Exports to US broken down by "executive orders buckets"
May 20, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Exports to US broken down by "executive orders buckets"
Afaik UBS is the 1st to publish this new template showing benefits of banks internal models & how much the new Basel 4 floor is going to bite.
What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%!
Archegos anyone?
What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%!
Archegos anyone?
May 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Afaik UBS is the 1st to publish this new template showing benefits of banks internal models & how much the new Basel 4 floor is going to bite.
What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%!
Archegos anyone?
What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%!
Archegos anyone?
Summary of the German coalition's economic measures & potential GDP impact, by DB
April 10, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Summary of the German coalition's economic measures & potential GDP impact, by DB
And a last one for the MAGA crowd: Nike suppliers is >1 million people in Asia vs. 4k making goods in US !
April 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
And a last one for the MAGA crowd: Nike suppliers is >1 million people in Asia vs. 4k making goods in US !
Some details on who’s going to stop which exports – very interesting split (especially if you try to model loan losses 😊). Overall 30% drop in US imports of goods (with retaliation modelled as 50% of US). China is -85%, Vietnam -75%, Taiwan, Japan, Korea Thailand -50%, EU -40%.
April 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Some details on who’s going to stop which exports – very interesting split (especially if you try to model loan losses 😊). Overall 30% drop in US imports of goods (with retaliation modelled as 50% of US). China is -85%, Vietnam -75%, Taiwan, Japan, Korea Thailand -50%, EU -40%.
The second shows GDP impacts, taking into account direct effects + indirect via trade partners (using a WTO macro model, so, you know...)
SE Asia impact is massive, -1% for EU, -1.3% Japan and -2.5% Korea. Mexico bonanza.
SE Asia impact is massive, -1% for EU, -1.3% Japan and -2.5% Korea. Mexico bonanza.
April 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
The second shows GDP impacts, taking into account direct effects + indirect via trade partners (using a WTO macro model, so, you know...)
SE Asia impact is massive, -1% for EU, -1.3% Japan and -2.5% Korea. Mexico bonanza.
SE Asia impact is massive, -1% for EU, -1.3% Japan and -2.5% Korea. Mexico bonanza.
Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts.
The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.
The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.
April 8, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts.
The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.
The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.
The moves are INSANE
+30bps on UST 10Y, S&P vertical
+30bps on UST 10Y, S&P vertical
April 7, 2025 at 2:19 PM
The moves are INSANE
+30bps on UST 10Y, S&P vertical
+30bps on UST 10Y, S&P vertical
Remember the name Emily Ley, you might hear it often in the next few weeks
(this is a challenge against the Feb & March Chinese EO but I suspect more is coming on the new ones)
(this is a challenge against the Feb & March Chinese EO but I suspect more is coming on the new ones)
April 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Remember the name Emily Ley, you might hear it often in the next few weeks
(this is a challenge against the Feb & March Chinese EO but I suspect more is coming on the new ones)
(this is a challenge against the Feb & March Chinese EO but I suspect more is coming on the new ones)
Which EU ctry will push to retaliate & which won't? To have a view I looked at banking exposure. The methodology: each country has a tariff intensity based on tariff % * % GDP on US exports, then I looked at SME REA of each bank in each country as proxy for risk. Results below
April 7, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Which EU ctry will push to retaliate & which won't? To have a view I looked at banking exposure. The methodology: each country has a tariff intensity based on tariff % * % GDP on US exports, then I looked at SME REA of each bank in each country as proxy for risk. Results below
This is a very intriguing comment from the EBA BSG: are they suggesting that having external staff working on banks' IT systems means that they're selling vulnerability data to hackers ?
(Just like burglaries increase when you renovate a house)
(Just like burglaries increase when you renovate a house)
April 4, 2025 at 11:56 AM
This is a very intriguing comment from the EBA BSG: are they suggesting that having external staff working on banks' IT systems means that they're selling vulnerability data to hackers ?
(Just like burglaries increase when you renovate a house)
(Just like burglaries increase when you renovate a house)
Markets are cracking : wild moves in Bund, European banks and X-Over spreads
Opportunities ahead of us :-)
Opportunities ahead of us :-)
April 4, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Markets are cracking : wild moves in Bund, European banks and X-Over spreads
Opportunities ahead of us :-)
Opportunities ahead of us :-)
In case you haven't been watching, EU redditors are having a Gamestop moment on Eutelsat, the French satellite co
March 24, 2025 at 9:01 AM
In case you haven't been watching, EU redditors are having a Gamestop moment on Eutelsat, the French satellite co
Sure, we need to reduce EU reliance on US military equipment, but the starting point isn't great
March 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Sure, we need to reduce EU reliance on US military equipment, but the starting point isn't great
French and German banks still look absolutely horrible on their net interest margins
March 20, 2025 at 9:39 AM
French and German banks still look absolutely horrible on their net interest margins
PI France, the Fr public bank, (via a fund) bought a big stake in Veolia. What's the purpose, you may ask? Make money?
Absolutely not, this deal will "create sustainable value for the resilience and competitiveness of territories and industries in the face of climate change"
Absolutely not, this deal will "create sustainable value for the resilience and competitiveness of territories and industries in the face of climate change"
March 17, 2025 at 5:59 PM
PI France, the Fr public bank, (via a fund) bought a big stake in Veolia. What's the purpose, you may ask? Make money?
Absolutely not, this deal will "create sustainable value for the resilience and competitiveness of territories and industries in the face of climate change"
Absolutely not, this deal will "create sustainable value for the resilience and competitiveness of territories and industries in the face of climate change"
And if you're planning to compare insurers by using their "disclosed" APR you're totally off, as these charts show
Not only are some real APR insane, but the rankings are also very different
Not only are some real APR insane, but the rankings are also very different
March 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
And if you're planning to compare insurers by using their "disclosed" APR you're totally off, as these charts show
Not only are some real APR insane, but the rankings are also very different
Not only are some real APR insane, but the rankings are also very different
Logically, the most frequent customer choices are going to be either "monthly/monthly" or "annually/annually"
And the difference is massive as this chart (on Admiral) shows
Answering "usually monthly" to the 1st Q gets you a big bump in pricing that isn't showed as an APR)
And the difference is massive as this chart (on Admiral) shows
Answering "usually monthly" to the 1st Q gets you a big bump in pricing that isn't showed as an APR)
March 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Logically, the most frequent customer choices are going to be either "monthly/monthly" or "annually/annually"
And the difference is massive as this chart (on Admiral) shows
Answering "usually monthly" to the 1st Q gets you a big bump in pricing that isn't showed as an APR)
And the difference is massive as this chart (on Admiral) shows
Answering "usually monthly" to the 1st Q gets you a big bump in pricing that isn't showed as an APR)
When you go on a price comparator, a question is (almost) asked twice: "how do you *usually* pay your car insurance policy" and "how do you want to pay *this* car insurance policy", monthly installments or one-off cash.
March 17, 2025 at 9:31 AM
When you go on a price comparator, a question is (almost) asked twice: "how do you *usually* pay your car insurance policy" and "how do you want to pay *this* car insurance policy", monthly installments or one-off cash.