Jonathan August
jgaugust.bsky.social
Jonathan August
@jgaugust.bsky.social
Lawyer, foodie, sports fan (Arsenal, Lakers, Dodgers, Kings, Dolphins). Doesn't suffer fools. LA to NY to SF to the East Bay.
Wish there was some way where a dev algorithm could exist that analyzes a person’s Xitter posts and then only gives them an invite to Bsky if they aren’t pieces of human crap
November 8, 2024 at 4:24 PM
Another point I think is that urbanites are legitimately angry at the lack of consequences for some petty crimes/thefts (SF/LA/NYC) and for decent reason. This showed in Prop 36 here in CA. What progressive and liberal governing coalitions do now will have a large impact on 2026 turnout.
November 8, 2024 at 1:13 AM
I think something to note is that in comparison to other incumbent political parties in the post-COVID inflation era, Democrats over-performed. Look at the UK. The Tories got slaughtered in a true wave. That didn't happen here. People just got mad at inflation and it was too much to overcome.
November 8, 2024 at 1:11 AM
There also seems to clearly be a “just Trump” voter phenomenon. GOP turnout in 2018 and 2022 was bad (2022 less so as Dems outperformed historical midterms for incumbent parties), but the GOP has done worse when he isn’t running. This also explains Dems holding the senate seats in MI, NV, and WI.
November 7, 2024 at 4:20 PM
That said, Dems seem to have hit a cap. Nearly 70 million for Obama in 2008, 65 million in 2012, 69.5 for Hillary, 81 for Biden, and 70-71 for Kamala.

Meanwhile GOP vote seems to be going up slowly, but incrementally. Have to make inroads in rural areas or else this trend will continue.
November 7, 2024 at 4:16 PM
Trump is going to roughly have the same or a very minor tick up in votes from 2020. Harris is going to end up with the second most all-time for a Dem, but about 10 million behind Biden.

Sure seems like a lot of low propensity voters that voted from home during COVID didn’t show up on Tuesday.
November 7, 2024 at 4:14 PM
It’s horrific. As a new parent, I have truly no idea what to do or say. I can only hope this isn’t the end of the republic and that their incompetence is once again their downfall, but today feels incredibly depressing.
November 6, 2024 at 7:47 PM