Jon Leo
@jleo110.bsky.social
Sailing the boat of life w/ God. ABC, BU/Pardee ‘11. Naval Officer, #ATLUTD supporter. Loves Hip Hop, Naval Hist., Star Wars, games, trains. Views=mine, not USN
Numbers were close to what you usually see in a midterm election in that district. For context half that 800k population probably can’t vote (kids, immigrants etc) so not bad.
Dems lost special elections before Nov 4th, but they showed the 13-15 pt swing that made them win big that Tuesday.
Dems lost special elections before Nov 4th, but they showed the 13-15 pt swing that made them win big that Tuesday.
December 3, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Numbers were close to what you usually see in a midterm election in that district. For context half that 800k population probably can’t vote (kids, immigrants etc) so not bad.
Dems lost special elections before Nov 4th, but they showed the 13-15 pt swing that made them win big that Tuesday.
Dems lost special elections before Nov 4th, but they showed the 13-15 pt swing that made them win big that Tuesday.
Basically, it means 40-60 districts are in play next year. Dems only need to flip a few to take back the house. The GOP is not in a good spot. And the GOP knows that.
December 3, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Basically, it means 40-60 districts are in play next year. Dems only need to flip a few to take back the house. The GOP is not in a good spot. And the GOP knows that.
The win was expected in a +22 GOP district in 2024. A 13 pt swing is huge, and no point of redistricting is going to fight that, and if anything. They may just have just dummy meandered. At that swing has been consistent across multiple special and off year elections.
December 3, 2025 at 7:44 PM
The win was expected in a +22 GOP district in 2024. A 13 pt swing is huge, and no point of redistricting is going to fight that, and if anything. They may just have just dummy meandered. At that swing has been consistent across multiple special and off year elections.
this time without SNAP benefits and DOD/VA being held hostage so that takes away 2 points of leverage from the GOP side. It'll be easier to hold a shutdown in January. Missing Valentines Day isn't has horrific as Thanksgiving/Christmas/Winter Holidays.
November 10, 2025 at 6:29 PM
this time without SNAP benefits and DOD/VA being held hostage so that takes away 2 points of leverage from the GOP side. It'll be easier to hold a shutdown in January. Missing Valentines Day isn't has horrific as Thanksgiving/Christmas/Winter Holidays.
it was a reply to you. BUT, your average American voter is going to blame the incumbent party and president for their premium hikes. Tale as old as time.
It sucks. But that's the reality. I was surprised more people blamed the GOP than Dems for the shutdown, even though Dem initiated
It sucks. But that's the reality. I was surprised more people blamed the GOP than Dems for the shutdown, even though Dem initiated
November 10, 2025 at 6:21 PM
it was a reply to you. BUT, your average American voter is going to blame the incumbent party and president for their premium hikes. Tale as old as time.
It sucks. But that's the reality. I was surprised more people blamed the GOP than Dems for the shutdown, even though Dem initiated
It sucks. But that's the reality. I was surprised more people blamed the GOP than Dems for the shutdown, even though Dem initiated
I mean, if that was the case, Dems would've won in 2014 since most people blamed the GOP for the 2013 shut down. The american median voter has a very short term memory, and not a very analytical one. Big reason why we have a 2nd Trump term.
November 10, 2025 at 9:51 AM
I mean, if that was the case, Dems would've won in 2014 since most people blamed the GOP for the 2013 shut down. The american median voter has a very short term memory, and not a very analytical one. Big reason why we have a 2nd Trump term.
The Three Communiques of "all New Yorkers on either side of the Verrazano Narrows maintain there is one New York and that Staten Island = New York", "Dem Party does not challenge that position", and that it "reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of Staten Island question by New Yorkers 😂"
November 5, 2025 at 6:44 AM
The Three Communiques of "all New Yorkers on either side of the Verrazano Narrows maintain there is one New York and that Staten Island = New York", "Dem Party does not challenge that position", and that it "reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of Staten Island question by New Yorkers 😂"
something something horseshoe theory haha.
Like it's going to be 33% Natsec veterans (alphabet soup agency, intel folks and military), and 33% DSA, and 33% economists (okay okay 1% for the establishment) and shoot...it may just work.
Like it's going to be 33% Natsec veterans (alphabet soup agency, intel folks and military), and 33% DSA, and 33% economists (okay okay 1% for the establishment) and shoot...it may just work.
November 5, 2025 at 6:12 AM
something something horseshoe theory haha.
Like it's going to be 33% Natsec veterans (alphabet soup agency, intel folks and military), and 33% DSA, and 33% economists (okay okay 1% for the establishment) and shoot...it may just work.
Like it's going to be 33% Natsec veterans (alphabet soup agency, intel folks and military), and 33% DSA, and 33% economists (okay okay 1% for the establishment) and shoot...it may just work.
So uhhh, when's the color revolution? hehe
November 5, 2025 at 6:05 AM
So uhhh, when's the color revolution? hehe
something something Horseshoe Theory hehe
November 5, 2025 at 5:56 AM
something something Horseshoe Theory hehe
Shoot, Hochul and Mamdani have a much better relationship than Cuomo and DeBlasio did. Moderates and progressives can work well together on a lot of kitchen table issues, which, still very much matter.
November 5, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Shoot, Hochul and Mamdani have a much better relationship than Cuomo and DeBlasio did. Moderates and progressives can work well together on a lot of kitchen table issues, which, still very much matter.
Maybe CA governor? we'll see
January 21, 2025 at 4:34 AM
Maybe CA governor? we'll see