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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 26

"Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market"
Nice analysis of LinkedIn data to estimate the impact of AI on jobs between 2010 and 2023.

It illustrates the complexity of AI economic impacts: what exposure taketh away, complementarities and productivity giveth.
www.menakahampole.com

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 26

All this highlights the need to consider AI economic impacts holistically, and to create incentives and infrastructure to reproduce AI economic impact analyses regularly to track longer term impacts via improved capabilities and job redesign.

Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 26

The results are consistent with their hypotheses: AI drives firm growth, occupations with high mean exposure to AI decline but this is often more than offset by complementarities and productivity growth. Big AI impacts with different signs lead to small aggregate changes.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 26

They use LinkedIn job ads to measure firm-level AI adoption and occupation / task distribution, and embedding distance to ONET tasks to quantify exposure. They use instruments to reduce selection biases and mitigate mis-measurement (read the paper for full details)

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 26

In their model, AI displaces an occupation if its mean task exposure to AI is high, and augments it if its exposure dispersion is high (some tasks are exposed to AI and others untouched). They also consider impacts on labour demand though AI-powered firm growth.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 26

"Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market"
Nice analysis of LinkedIn data to estimate the impact of AI on jobs between 2010 and 2023.

It illustrates the complexity of AI economic impacts: what exposure taketh away, complementarities and productivity giveth.
www.menakahampole.com

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Feb 14

Metascience and AI postdoctoral fellowship
Cool @sloanfoundation.bsky.social opportunity for anyone interested in studying AI x science adoption and impact. It is also very aligned with the evidence and experimentation recommendation in our recent essay!
sloan.org/programs/dig...

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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Dan Larremore @danlarremore.bsky.social · Feb 13

Intl Conf on the Science of Science & Innovation abstracts open! 👇👇👇

ICSSI @icssi.bsky.social · Feb 13

📣 Call for abstracts at #ICSSI2025! #CFP

📥 Submit here: www.icssi.org/guidelines
⏳ Deadline: March 14th

On any topic relevant to #SciSci #Innovation #ScienceofScience #Metascience #STS

Submissions Are Now Open!
The Program Committee welcomes submissions on any topic related to the field of science of science and innovation, broadly defined. We seek abstracts and papers from researchers across many disciplines from academia, government, as well as the private sector, and we especially welcome submissions from early-career scholars and researchers from underrepresented groups. Major conference topics of interest include, but are not limited to:

AI applications to science and innovation

Societal impacts of science and innovation

Funding risky ideas

Failures in science and innovation

Ethics in scientific production and reward

Diversity, equity, and inclusivity in science and innovation

Evolution, predictability, and uncertainties of scientific careers

Drivers for scientific achievement

Idea generation and unpacking the fitness of ideas

Replicability and reproducibility

Theoretical discussions and conceptualizations of science

Causal inference in the science of science and innovation

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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Maria del Rio-Chanona @maria-drc.bsky.social · Jan 29

📢 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗽𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 alert! We document how 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀. 💼 💻

📊 We analysed 𝟯𝗠+ 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀, used embeddings to cluster them into 𝟭𝟬𝟬+ 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲-𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀, and LLMs to classify them as s𝘂𝗯𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆, or 𝘂𝗻𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 30

2. AI is being used to identify venom proteins that have antimicrobial properties. The haystack is the space of proteins present in venoms (40M!).

Both studies validate their results in the lab, highlighting complementarities between AI & experiments.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 30

"Antivenom Renaissance"
Nice illustration of how AI can accelerate science by helping find needles in different types of haystacks.
1. AI is being used to design proteins that neutralise venoms. The haystack is the space of all possible protein designs.
blog.asimov.com/p/antivenom-...

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

This is a VC investment so it doesn’t make sense to frame as something that has to be repaid. If the investment is creates improvements in model performance that generate massive value in the future then it makes sense. That’s the expectation.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

I guess those models are generating income now + you need to invest to go down the learning curve?

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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Daniel Rock @danielrock.bsky.social · Jan 29

Hi Everyone!

We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work.

Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...

forms.gle

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

Could much of the recent drama about DeepSeek be rooted on flawed causal thinking i.e. neglecting the counterfactual? Dario Amodei makes a compelling case here.

darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-...

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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

"Employment dynamics in a rapid decarbonization of the US power sector"

Cool complexity economics analysis of a scenario that sadly looks a bit sci-fi in the current political circumstances. It would be interesting to study labour market impacts of AI with this approach.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

This paper is a timely reminder that tech impacts on jobs are dynamic and complex - so we need dynamic and complex models and data to track / anticipate / respond to them!
Read it here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Employment dynamics in a rapid decarbonization of the US power sector

We analyze the employment dynamics of a rapid decarbonization of the US power sector, reducing emissions by 95% before 2035. We couple an input-output…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

They also forecast skill mismatches based on the network structure of job impacts e.g. whether a job’s neighbours see higher demand (bad for employers) or lower demand (bad for workers). This could inform timely policies to accelerate deployment and reduce disruption.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

They find that the net impact of rapid decarbonisation on jobs is positive but depends on the stage of the deployment cycle. Many jobs see growth during the “scale up phase” (build up of low-carbon infrasructure) but decline afterwards.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

They forecast the impact of energy tech adoption scenarios on output and labour demand in exposed sectors, and the implications for employers and workers based on impacts in related occupations.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 29

"Employment dynamics in a rapid decarbonization of the US power sector"

Cool complexity economics analysis of a scenario that sadly looks a bit sci-fi in the current political circumstances. It would be interesting to study labour market impacts of AI with this approach.

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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Tim Bresnahan @timobres.bsky.social · Jan 27

Hello #EconSky, a simple question but one where I have not yet found the answer. What should I read to get a quantitative empirical understanding of the contemporary relationship, both size and timing, between scientific discovery and productivity growth?

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Reposted by Juan Mateos-Garcia

Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 27

"Suspense and surprise in technological innovation"
Neat analysis of the link between expectations and outcomes in technological evolution.

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 27

Some limitations: use of a top down coarse taxonomy; innovation isn't always link-creation; neglects hierarchical nature of innovation; patents offer a narrow view of societal expectations; expectations not evenly distributed...
Still really worth reading - check it here:
arxiv.org/abs/2412.08092

Suspense and surprise in the book of technology: Understanding innovation dynamics

We envision future technologies through science fiction, strategic planning, or academic research. Yet, our expectations do not always match with what actually unfolds, much like navigating a story wh...

arxiv.org

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Juan Mateos-Garcia @jmateosgarcia.bsky.social · Jan 27

They analyse the distribution of suspense and surprise in technology codes within higher level technologies and characterise a technology lifecycle of surprise - suspense - popularity. This is what it looks like for AI. It would be interesting to drill down further!

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