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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · 4d

Professor #Chunginmoon of #Yonsei university provides an illuminating perspective on #ROK-#Japan-#US #trilateralism.

Centre for Geopolitics @camgeopolitics.bsky.social · 4d

On Geopolitics, Currents - Episode 3 is available now! President Lee Jae-myung and South Korean Foreign Policy in a time of uncertainty

With Prof @jnilssonwright.bsky.social

Listen on:
Apple podcasts: bit.ly/Currents3Apple
Spotify: bit.ly/Currents3Spot

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · 6d

Some thoughts, ahead of this weekend’s LDP presidential election, on the challenges for Japan’s governing party.

engelsbergideas.com/essays/japan...

Japan between the Great Powers

Japan’s longtime-ruling party has survived potentially fatal setbacks before. But recovering from the current political crisis and navigating a new era of Great Power competition will require a great ...

engelsbergideas.com

Reposted by John Nilsson-Wright

John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Aug 1

Great discussion with Steve Herman, @newsguy.bsky.social , until recently VOA’s chief national correspondent, abou the threats to press freedom, personal liberty and the Open Society in #Trump's America.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3291...

On Geopolitics Currents - Episode 2: Trump and the Fourth Estate

YouTube video by Centre for Geopolitics

www.youtube.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Aug 2

Corporation for Public Broadcasting Will Shut Down www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

A further effort by Trump to muzzle the media. For more on this see:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=3291...

Corporation for Public Broadcasting Will Shut Down

www.nytimes.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Aug 1

Great discussion with Steve Herman, @newsguy.bsky.social , until recently VOA’s chief national correspondent, abou the threats to press freedom, personal liberty and the Open Society in #Trump's America.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3291...

On Geopolitics Currents - Episode 2: Trump and the Fourth Estate

YouTube video by Centre for Geopolitics

www.youtube.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 24

KOIZUMI Shinjiro: young, popular
TAKAICHI Sanae: maintain conservative block
KOBAYASHI Takayuki - contender in last presidential election & has support
HAYASHI Yoshimasa & KATO Katsonobu: potential for working well with opposition
Unclear who delivers best on all 3 criteria

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 24

Key criteria for future LDP leader & PM:
1. Managing relations with Opposition parties
2. Keeping conservatives and Abe old guard within LDP and avoiding party split
3. Ability to deliver a win in the next Lower House election

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 24

www.asahi.com/articles/AST...

Excellent video explainer of Ishiba’s problems, including results of his meeting yesterday with Suga, Aso and Kishida - none of whom were prepared to endorse his continuation as PM. Race for successor likely to kick off in 2nd half of August.

【解説人語】首相退陣論、強まる圧力　「ポスト石破」3つのポイント：朝日新聞

参院選で大敗した石破茂首相（自民党総裁）の進退が焦点になっています。23日には、麻生太郎、菅義偉両元首相、岸田文雄前首相の首相経験者3氏との異例の会談もありました。　会談後、記者団の取材に応じた石破…

www.asahi.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 24

#Ishiba has ltd room for manoeuvre and no obvious path for governing. Prefectural party chapters demanding resignation & looking to convene joint LDP house convention to vote against PM. Also, key opposition party heads (Ishin, DPFP, CDP) won’t coop w/ LDP

www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

［社説］国政の停滞回避へ石破首相は進退判断を - 日本経済新聞

自民党内で石破茂首相（党総裁）の辞任を求める声が強まってきた。経済や外交など国政に停滞は許されず、政権運営にこのまま展望が開けないのであれば首相は進退を判断すべきだ。参院選で自民党は大敗し、公明党と合わせた議席で衆院に続いて参院でも過半数を失った。首相は自公で過半数の議席確保を「必達目標」としていたにもかかわらず、比較第1党として「国政に停滞を招かない」と続投を表明した。そう断言するのなら首

www.nikkei.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

The first in our new On Geopolitics podcasts is out. With @suzanneraine.bsky.social offering her dispassionate and historically informed perspective, we talk to Nobukatsu Kanehara, one of Japan’s leading strategic thinkers.

Centre for Geopolitics @camgeopolitics.bsky.social · Jul 23

On Geopolitics Currents - Episode 1: Japan’s foreign policy challenges in the new Trump era is out now! Listen now with
@jnilssonwright.bsky.social and @suzanneraine.bsky.social

Apple bit.ly/Currents1Apple
Spotify bit.ly/Currents1Spot
YouTube bit.ly/Currents1YouT

Currents - Episode 1: Japan’s foreign policy challenges in the new Trump era

Podcast Episode · On Geopolitics · 07/23/2025 · 41m

bit.ly

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

Ishiba now claiming that he needs to stay on as PM to avoid a split within the LDP. From completing the trade deal with the US to maintaining party unity, the rationale for staying shifts at time when public support for the LDP has dropped to 19%. Ishiba: clever tactician or politically obstinate?

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

Ishiba now publicly pushing back against local news reports that he intends to resign. With local chapters of the LDP expressing discontent and rumours of pressure from senior figures in party to encourage/force his resignation hard to determine where the balance of truth lies.

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

Rice element of agreement will be very politically sensitive, given relationship to national identity issues & strength of farming lobby. Ishiba’s meeting today w/ former PMS, Aso, Suga & Kishida will shape timetable for resignation. Possible successors including Sanae Takaichi already positioning.

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

Expect opposition parties to welcome avoidance of 25% tariff but raise concerns about 15% level - still very high and notably different from Japan’s original negotiating position of holding out for zero tariffs.

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

How this plays locally & whether it can be sold as success or capitulation by LDP leadership will affect standing of gvt.

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

Trade announcement with US appears to allow for substantial US rice, agricultural and auto imports into Japan & requires Japanese $550 billion financing incentives for Japanese firms investing in US, but w 15% tariffs on Japanese exports to US and 50% on steel & aluminium exports to US.

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

Reporting on this is mixed, with some outlets suggesting actual resignation may come in August. Key will be Ishiba’s meeting later today with senior party officials, including former PMs. Hard to see Ishiba lasting more than a few weeks and starting gun now fired on next LDP election.

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 23

#Japan's PM #Ishiba announces intention to resign w/in month, following breakthrough in trade talks w/ #US. This was inevitable, given need to take responsibility for 3 electoral defeats: metropolitan, lower & upper house elections

www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/202...

石破首相退陣へ、月内にも表明する方向で調整…関税協議の妥結踏まえ意向固める

【読売新聞】　石破首相（自民党総裁）は２３日、米国の関税措置を巡る日米協議が妥結したことを踏まえ、退陣する意向を固め、周辺に伝えた。月内にも退陣を表明する方向だ。２０日投開票の参院選で自民、公明両党が惨敗した後、首相は続投を表明した

www.yomiuri.co.jp

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 22

www.asahi.com/articles/AST... My thoughts on the recent Japanese Upper House election, courtesy of Asahi Shinbun

「タブーが消え、ポピュリストの波がきた」　英有識者がみる参院選：朝日新聞

20日の参院選では、与党である自民党と公明党が大敗し、国民民主党や参政党が議席を伸ばしました。国外の有識者には、この状況はどう見えるのか。日本の現代政治に詳しい英ケンブリッジ大のジョン・ニルソンライ…

www.asahi.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 10

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...
@suzanneraine.bsky.social and Ali Ansari pass the baton to @wjhurst.bsky.social and me for our @camgeopolitics.bsky.social regular podcast. A very tough act to follow.

Episode 54: What just happened?

Podcast Episode · On Geopolitics · 09/07/2025 · 44m

podcasts.apple.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jul 3

Our video recording of @frankjannuzi.bsky.social wonderful talk on #US-#Japan-#ROK trilateral relations is now available. All made possible thanks to the support of the Korea Foundation-한국국제교류재단 www.cfg.cam.ac.uk/events/cambr...

Cambridge – Korea Foundation Special Seminar Series: Frank Jannuzi - Centre for Geopolitics

www.cfg.cam.ac.uk

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jun 16

Looking forward to welcoming @frankjannuzi.bsky.social CEO of the Maureen &Mike Mansfield Foundation to Cambridge today to talk on the subject of US-ROK-Japan trilateralism at @camgeopolitics.bsky.social part of our Korea Foundation special seminar series.

www.cfg.cam.ac.uk/events/cambr...

Cambridge – Korea Foundation Special Seminar Series: Frank Jannuzi - Centre for Geopolitics

www.cfg.cam.ac.uk

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jun 11

McCarthyism on steroids. This is arguably far worse than the 1950s since the driver of this movement is not a senator from Wisconsin but the entire executive branch, directed by #Trump and assisted by a supine Republican congress. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...

It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington

The Trump administration has eviscerated the expert class that generated alternative views in its best moments, and engaged in groupthink at its worst.

www.nytimes.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jun 11

x.com/cagovernor/s... A bold and necessary statement.

Governor Gavin Newsom on X: "[FULL ADDRESS] Governor Newsom addresses Californians in response to President Trump’s assault on democracy and the President’s illegal militarization of Los Angeles. https://t.co/8Md1TFJbRm" / X

[FULL ADDRESS] Governor Newsom addresses Californians in response to President Trump’s assault on democracy and the President’s illegal militarization of Los Angeles. https://t.co/8Md1TFJbRm

x.com

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John Nilsson-Wright @jnilssonwright.bsky.social · Jun 5

A stimulating piece, partly right in focusing on social elitism &frustration of populist voters who feel alienated & denied agency. But the toughest challenge for Dems is defining an agenda that’s both revolutionary & constructive. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/o...

Opinion | The Democrats’ Problems Are Bigger Than You Think

www.nytimes.com