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Quantitative takeaway …
Tariffs improve revenue flow, but interest dynamics dominate the US budget.
Even a 4× increase in customs duties is macro-irrelevant compared with:
• mandatory spending, and
• compounding debt interest.
Quantitative takeaway …
Tariffs improve revenue flow, but interest dynamics dominate the US budget.
Even a 4× increase in customs duties is macro-irrelevant compared with:
• mandatory spending, and
• compounding debt interest.
Key reading of the curves …
• The tariff curve stays far below both spending curves.
• The interest curve alone absorbs the entire tariff increase.
• The deficit curve does not bend downward despite record tariff income.
Key reading of the curves …
• The tariff curve stays far below both spending curves.
• The interest curve alone absorbs the entire tariff increase.
• The deficit curve does not bend downward despite record tariff income.
These "tariffs" are just enough to undermine confidence and make enemies...
These "tariffs" are just enough to undermine confidence and make enemies...
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NEJM 2024/11
NEJM 2024/11