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Joe Twyman

@joetwyman.bsky.social

1.8K followers 24 following 140 posts

Co-founder of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll.

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Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 5d

Apropos of nothing, just a quick reminder on the popularity of policies.....

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 8d

The full league table of the 16 political figures tested.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 8d

And fewer than a third can name Ed Davey.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 8d

Fewer than four in ten can name Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 8d

Nigel Farage is just behind Keir Starmer. Just under three quarters could name him from his photograph.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 8d

Which politicians can the British public actually name? In honour of party conference season Deltapoll has produced a league table of leading political figures - and at the top comes Keir Starmer. More than three quarters could correctly name him.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 12d

I agree. One film focussing more on Han, one on Luke and the final one on Leia. But the allure of subverting expectations became too great after the criticism of TFA for being derivative. And from then on it was over correcting the over correction.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 12d

An interesting historical counter factual to consider is what would have happened if Tony Blair, while riding high in the polls during his first term, had forced through a national ID card scheme in the late 1990s?

Reposted by Joe Twyman

Laurie Dunkin Wedd @ldw1.bsky.social · 13d

There are figures for “detected” arrivals (ie the massive majority of small boats), but none for undetected. Even if we assume that only half of such arrivals are detected, they would still be less than 10% of the total.
It is, in fact, a non-problem.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 13d

We also gave some thought to use of the word ‘majority’ as opposed ‘more than half’. In the end we went with the former because it more closely matches the language used on this subject. In doing that, however, it is reasonable to assume some respondents will not know what it actually means.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 13d

Various attempts have been made at estimating the number, but not well and not recently. If you can point to a reliable, verifiable estimate, I would be happy to post it out and would love to use it for future work.
The government does not publish this data - and I am not sure it even has it.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 13d

Some (Bluesky exclusive) details on the methodology for this. We wanted to present the ‘true’ figure to respondents but it is VERY difficult to get any kind of decent data on what that 'true' number actually is. Obviously, by its very nature, measuring illegal activity of any kind is really tough.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 13d

Yes - and in that respect, very similar to things like spending on international aid. If you think we spend too much, the actual numbers will almost certainly not matter.
And on aid spending we actually have verifiable numbers - something that seems sadly absent when it comes to illegal immigration.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 13d

This then, unsurprisingly, correlates closely with the belief that immigration and asylum is an important problem.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 13d

Nearly half of British adults believe a majority of immigrants to this country in the last year came here illegally.
Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 17d

This reminds me of shopping in Tesco (maybe Morrisons) in Sheffield in the 1990s and the woman in front of me in the queue buying just KY Jelly and a single dinner plate.
I thought I was being very funny by asking the cashier "I wonder where she's going to put that plate". The cashier disagreed.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 20d

I would just like to make it clear that if you do have extensive experience in coding SPSS Syntax - and particularly SPSS Script - over here at Deltapoll, I am always interested in hearing from you.
Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 20d

Peter Kyle frantically wondering why Britain's legion of HTML 3.0 and SPSS coders can't get jobs

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 20d

Just a reminder, in case it was needed, that there is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between a theoretical new party gaining X% share of the vote in a hypothetical poll and it actually going on to achieve that level of support.
And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 22d

RIP Robert Redford.
And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.

Jesse Sheidlower @jessesword.com · 22d

I can't remember the details, and can't find them now, for my favorite Robert Redford anecdote, but: When Indecent Proposal was being discussed, someone asked a film critic if she would sleep with Robert Redford for $1 million, and she replied, "Yes, but where would I get the money?"

Reposted by Joe Twyman

Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 23d

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · 26d

Is this all because people couldn't Triforce.
(I concede this joke was niche, even back in 2005)

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · Sep 5

See also Sheffield Rally. It's all relative.

a woman is walking in front of a blue screen that says opportunity

ALT: a woman is walking in front of a blue screen that says opportunity

media.tenor.com

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · Sep 3

Big fan of Reddit's political analysis in the context of football broadcasting.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · Sep 2

BREAKING: No lanyard sponsor for this year's Conservative Party Conference.

Joe Twyman @joetwyman.bsky.social · Aug 28

I studied MLK the civil rights movement in the US only to be asked many years later why we had not instead studied Ghandi and the civil rights movement in India, particularly as it was came first and India was part of the Empire. I felt that was a good point as the person asking was only 8.