John Blank
@johnblank100.bsky.social
Macro Economist and Global Strategist
An affordability squeeze?
Conagra (CAG) earnings speak up.
Conagra (CAG) earnings speak up.
November 30, 2025 at 5:41 PM
An affordability squeeze?
Conagra (CAG) earnings speak up.
Conagra (CAG) earnings speak up.
Bitcoin leads stocks by 6-8 weeks
November 23, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Bitcoin leads stocks by 6-8 weeks
Oh! No bubble … got it.
November 22, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Oh! No bubble … got it.
A good post from Mr. EJ Antoni (Yes) here.
November 22, 2025 at 12:25 PM
A good post from Mr. EJ Antoni (Yes) here.
Gold (+55%) is the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (+1%) is now the worst.
Something we haven't seen before -- in any calendar year (and the inverse of 2013).
- Charlie BiLello
Something we haven't seen before -- in any calendar year (and the inverse of 2013).
- Charlie BiLello
November 16, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Gold (+55%) is the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (+1%) is now the worst.
Something we haven't seen before -- in any calendar year (and the inverse of 2013).
- Charlie BiLello
Something we haven't seen before -- in any calendar year (and the inverse of 2013).
- Charlie BiLello
22% of the 2000s— spent in recession.
November 15, 2025 at 3:17 PM
22% of the 2000s— spent in recession.
Not big. But what a spot in Santa Barbara for a private swim!
November 14, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Not big. But what a spot in Santa Barbara for a private swim!
Not a good look 🤒The Cass Freight Index slid 2% in October, a sign of an ongoing freight recession.
This index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from $25 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually — on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers.
This index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from $25 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually — on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers.
November 14, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Not a good look 🤒The Cass Freight Index slid 2% in October, a sign of an ongoing freight recession.
This index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from $25 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually — on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers.
This index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from $25 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually — on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers.
Here is to hoping —for the next U.S. President, to actively spend personal time in the Amazon rainforest, and to do this fit, wearing Hokas.
I was over “the red power tie” thing —a full three decades ago.
Change is coming folks!
Keep the faith.
I was over “the red power tie” thing —a full three decades ago.
Change is coming folks!
Keep the faith.
November 14, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Here is to hoping —for the next U.S. President, to actively spend personal time in the Amazon rainforest, and to do this fit, wearing Hokas.
I was over “the red power tie” thing —a full three decades ago.
Change is coming folks!
Keep the faith.
I was over “the red power tie” thing —a full three decades ago.
Change is coming folks!
Keep the faith.
I’ve been writing all year that once 3x-4x beta crypto pops, high beta stocks will go down with the ship.
November 9, 2025 at 1:19 PM
I’ve been writing all year that once 3x-4x beta crypto pops, high beta stocks will go down with the ship.
What’s going on here?
November 9, 2025 at 12:25 PM
What’s going on here?
You gotta love ❤️ it!
November 8, 2025 at 2:57 PM
You gotta love ❤️ it!
Revelio estimates US nonfarm employment declined by -9,100 in October, the 2nd-largest drop in at least 5 years.
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Revelio estimates US nonfarm employment declined by -9,100 in October, the 2nd-largest drop in at least 5 years.
Crypto lending leverage…
November 8, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Crypto lending leverage…
Not sure why any young person would vote for this…
November 8, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Not sure why any young person would vote for this…
U.S. Layoffs Announcements, 2025, gratis BCA Research.
To be honest, how has this been shrugged off — since April?
That is what mystifies me…
To be honest, how has this been shrugged off — since April?
That is what mystifies me…
November 8, 2025 at 11:46 AM
U.S. Layoffs Announcements, 2025, gratis BCA Research.
To be honest, how has this been shrugged off — since April?
That is what mystifies me…
To be honest, how has this been shrugged off — since April?
That is what mystifies me…
Not a good look …
November 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Not a good look …
Gregory Daco
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k job cut announcements in Oct. 2025
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1 million) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs...
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k job cut announcements in Oct. 2025
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1 million) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs...
November 6, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Gregory Daco
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k job cut announcements in Oct. 2025
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1 million) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs...
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k job cut announcements in Oct. 2025
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1 million) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs...
Here is AMD’s share price chart, over the last five years.
It shows you a key point: Semi stock share prices are deeply cyclical. They are usually low P/E, and low margin too.
This is Nvidia’s direct competitor.
🤨Beware…
It shows you a key point: Semi stock share prices are deeply cyclical. They are usually low P/E, and low margin too.
This is Nvidia’s direct competitor.
🤨Beware…
November 1, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Here is AMD’s share price chart, over the last five years.
It shows you a key point: Semi stock share prices are deeply cyclical. They are usually low P/E, and low margin too.
This is Nvidia’s direct competitor.
🤨Beware…
It shows you a key point: Semi stock share prices are deeply cyclical. They are usually low P/E, and low margin too.
This is Nvidia’s direct competitor.
🤨Beware…
Chart by James Bianco.
Bottom panel shows a rolling correlation (S&P & UMich) is the most negative ever (61 years of data shown).
Rising stock prices no longer make an "average" person feel better about the U.S. economic outlook, as was almost always the case for the 50 years leading up to 2020.
Bottom panel shows a rolling correlation (S&P & UMich) is the most negative ever (61 years of data shown).
Rising stock prices no longer make an "average" person feel better about the U.S. economic outlook, as was almost always the case for the 50 years leading up to 2020.
October 27, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Chart by James Bianco.
Bottom panel shows a rolling correlation (S&P & UMich) is the most negative ever (61 years of data shown).
Rising stock prices no longer make an "average" person feel better about the U.S. economic outlook, as was almost always the case for the 50 years leading up to 2020.
Bottom panel shows a rolling correlation (S&P & UMich) is the most negative ever (61 years of data shown).
Rising stock prices no longer make an "average" person feel better about the U.S. economic outlook, as was almost always the case for the 50 years leading up to 2020.
I remain convinced.
The Tesla analyst community is writing a company narrative —based on share price.
Tesla business is a goner and has been since 2022.
Rare earth restrictions are for solar panels, batteries, semiconductors etc. — for the benefit of Mainland China tech.
Xi won’t reverse them.
The Tesla analyst community is writing a company narrative —based on share price.
Tesla business is a goner and has been since 2022.
Rare earth restrictions are for solar panels, batteries, semiconductors etc. — for the benefit of Mainland China tech.
Xi won’t reverse them.
October 25, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I remain convinced.
The Tesla analyst community is writing a company narrative —based on share price.
Tesla business is a goner and has been since 2022.
Rare earth restrictions are for solar panels, batteries, semiconductors etc. — for the benefit of Mainland China tech.
Xi won’t reverse them.
The Tesla analyst community is writing a company narrative —based on share price.
Tesla business is a goner and has been since 2022.
Rare earth restrictions are for solar panels, batteries, semiconductors etc. — for the benefit of Mainland China tech.
Xi won’t reverse them.
The three C's -- from CA Attorney General Rob Bonta
"Courts, Crowds, and Courage"
"Courts, Crowds, and Courage"
October 20, 2025 at 10:48 AM
The three C's -- from CA Attorney General Rob Bonta
"Courts, Crowds, and Courage"
"Courts, Crowds, and Courage"
The Danish economist Henrik Zeberg out with this excellent 2025 bubble piece. On Oct. 16, 2025. A must read.
October 16, 2025 at 11:15 AM
The Danish economist Henrik Zeberg out with this excellent 2025 bubble piece. On Oct. 16, 2025. A must read.
Kevin "the smirk" Hassett knows, how the GOP (aka the Heritage Foundation roll-up, a holdco, for a right-wing family office policy alliance) and this administration works.
In the pic, today's 'competence' assessment came flying forward.
Kevin and his 'boss' chose the same ties today. Fancy that!
In the pic, today's 'competence' assessment came flying forward.
Kevin and his 'boss' chose the same ties today. Fancy that!
October 12, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Kevin "the smirk" Hassett knows, how the GOP (aka the Heritage Foundation roll-up, a holdco, for a right-wing family office policy alliance) and this administration works.
In the pic, today's 'competence' assessment came flying forward.
Kevin and his 'boss' chose the same ties today. Fancy that!
In the pic, today's 'competence' assessment came flying forward.
Kevin and his 'boss' chose the same ties today. Fancy that!