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John Pollock

@johnpollock.bsky.social

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Nov 24

In 2023 the world thought China was building a 600-metre long airstrip on Triton Island. Maxar images 📸 reveal however the PLA has instead been upgrading its signals intelligence facilities.

I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.

How Beijing is closing surveillance gaps in the South China Sea

The discovery of a new radar system on China’s Triton Island military base shows that Beijing is rapidly developing its intelligence capacities in contested waters, write John Pollock and Damien Symon...

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 8d

"What some powerful members of the Trump administration want is regime change, and they want it as cheaply as possible."

Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️

Opinion | Trump Isn’t Busting Drug Cartels. He’s Settling Scores.

www.nytimes.com

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 14d

At this point any US military aid or support for Europe and Ukraine should be viewed as a bonus under this president.

Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.

The Economist @economist.com · 14d

Donald Trump’s apparent shift in support towards Ukraine is more likely to have been washing his hands of the war. If so, Ukraine and its European allies will have to face Russia alone

Fixing the rot in Ukraine

Things are going wrong away from the front line. Europe needs to help

econ.st

Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 17d

In the last six years, the Gulf Arab states have been attacked by both Israel and by Iran. In both instances, Washington did not protect them or respond militarily.

Israel’s attack on Qatar shows why it’s time for a Gulf defence union

Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states would be better served by integrating their defences than relying on other external partners.

www.chathamhouse.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 18d

The consistency with which Donald Trump makes excuses for Vladimir Putin is truly beyond alarming at this point.

The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.

Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · 18d

NATO leaders have announced a new initiative, Eastern Sentry, to defend the airspace of frontline states. But the U.S. response has been underwhelming—nonexistent, really. Trump has repeatedly suggested that the incursion of Russian drones into Poland may have been accidental. on.cfr.org/4mwpUbX

Jets Over Estonia Are Putin’s Latest Check of U.S. and NATO Resolve

NATO chased away the jets a week after shooting down Russian drones in Poland. These incidents add to a troubling trend.

on.cfr.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 19d

Enough is enough. After the drone incursion into Poland deterrence needs to be re-established with the Russians.

The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 21d

At an emergency summit in Doha, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.

Egypt now sees Israel as an imminent threat

At an emergency summit in Doha, President Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.

www.chathamhouse.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 23d

You love to see it and a packed edition too as we head into the Autumn 🍂.

Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 23d

Hot off the press and into the hands of our editor @lycidas.bsky.social — the new issue of our international affairs magazine @theworldtoday.org has arrived at Chatham House.

Read more about the Autumn issue of the magazine via the link below⤵️

Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 24d

A Russian naval base, the growing Iranian presence in Port Sudan and the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking a haven are all reasons why Western governments should give a higher priority to Sudan.

Why ending the war in Sudan should be a higher priority for the West

As world leaders gather for the UN General Assembly, now is the time to put the focus back on Sudan and build international support for ending the war.

www.chathamhouse.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Sep 2

"Eight decades after the Second World War ended, China no longer views itself as a mere participant in history but as the architect of a new world order."

A fascinating read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Yu Jie on the key signals China is sending via the SCO summit and 'Victory Day' parade.

China is using the SCO summit and Victory Day parade to showcase its vision of a new world order

China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

www.chathamhouse.org

Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Sep 2

China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

China is using the SCO summit and Victory Day parade to showcase its vision of a new world order

China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Aug 19

Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks a significant escalation but not a shift in Russia’s strategic outlook – one rooted in resisting EU and NATO influence in the Black Sea.

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy

How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Aug 16

“Trump gave Putin more space to manipulate, mislead and buy time. Alaska has emboldened Putin, who is likely to prolong, not end, the war.”

Orysia Lutsevych on the Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump for @chathamhouse.org⤵️

Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska: Early analysis from Chatham House experts

Chatham House analysts give their initial reaction and insights after US President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage on Friday.

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Aug 16

“There are dangers still to watch for. Trump is now once again looking to Zelenskyy to take steps towards peace. Having failed to make any impression on Putin, Trump is turning to the softer target.”

@keirgiles.bsky.social offers his analysis on the Alaska summit⤵️

Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska: Early analysis from Chatham House experts

Chatham House analysts give their initial reaction and insights after US President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage on Friday.

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Aug 11

"Ukraine and Europe risk being once again frozen out of the conversation about their future. In the case of Europe, that’s a damning indictment."

Read @keirgiles.bsky.social latest on the upcoming summit in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, for @theipaper.com⤵️

Trump could hand Putin far more than Ukraine. Europe should be afraid

The Russian President may well be approaching this week's meeting with far broader plans than Donald Trump once again endorsing his current war aims in Ukraine

inews.co.uk

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Aug 7

A fascinating read by @chathamhouse.org’s Middle East team on the dynamics at play in Lebanon following the war in September-October last year and what it means for Israel, Hezbollah, the US and Lebanon.

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Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Aug 7

Whilst Hezbollah has relinquished some of its weapons to the Lebanese army in areas south of the Litani River — it refuses to give up its arsenal in the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Lebanon’s moment of truth

The Lebanese government must stop shirking its responsibilities and push Hezbollah to disarm – taking advantage of the historic momentum in the region.

www.chathamhouse.org

Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Aug 7

With Hezbollah badly mauled following its war with Israel and much of its leadership destroyed, the United States sees an opportunity to end a long-standing threat to Israel and Lebanon.

Lebanon’s moment of truth

The Lebanese government must stop shirking its responsibilities and push Hezbollah to disarm – taking advantage of the historic momentum in the region.

www.chathamhouse.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Aug 5

"Although Israel and the United States did considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran may be able to produce the fissile material required for about ten nuclear weapons within half a year."

Stark analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Attacking Iran and Tempting Fate

Although Israel and the United States did considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran may be able to produce the fissile material required for about ten nuclear weapons within half a year.

www.iiss.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Jul 31

A fascinating new report by @galipdalay.bsky.social and Natalie Sabanadze for @chathamhouse.org.

It covers the ambitions of Russia in the Black Sea region, 🇷🇺🇹🇷 ties, the invasion of Ukraine and China's regional interests also.

A brilliant read on one of the world's most contested maritime domains⤵️

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy

How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Jul 24

Today’s China–EU summit in Beijing is meant to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties, but China and Europe remain deeply divided over trade and the war in Ukraine.

Read Yu Jie's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest for @chathamhouse.org ⤵️

China–EU summit is unlikely to improve relations amid key differences on trade and Ukraine war

The Beijing summit shows that China–EU ties continue to be overshadowed by ongoing grievances.

www.chathamhouse.org

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Jul 22

An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleagues on how the UK should approach the Indo-Pacific region.

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Jul 22

Report | Why the Indo-Pacific should be a higher priority for the UK

The government must give strategic weight to the UK's relationships in the Indo-Pacific and deepen joint initiatives with 🇦🇺🇯🇵🇳🇿🇰🇷.

A full Indo-Pacific strategy is vital to our ability to manage relations with 🇨🇳. Read our latest ⤵️

Why the Indo-Pacific should be a higher priority for the UK

Using Britain’s alliances and networks for greater impact

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Jul 21

Podcast🎙️| Will Trump deliver for Ukraine?

Jaroslava Barbieri, John Lough and Samir Puri join the podcast to discuss whether Donald Trump is shifting his views on Ukraine and Russia.

Apple: apple.co/4m80Qs9
Spotify: bit.ly/458Fepz

Independent Thinking: Will Trump deliver for Ukraine?

Jaroslava Barbieri, John Lough and Samir Puri join the podcast to discuss whether Donald Trump is shifting his views on Ukraine and Russia.

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by John Pollock

Armida van Rij @armida.bsky.social · Jul 16

Find it shocking that the story about the Afghan files is being turned into a story about immigration on R4 by Rajan and Healy. This is about public scrutiny, government decision-making, doing right by those who've supported the British armed forces and British operations overseas. Not immigration.

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Reposted by John Pollock

Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · Jul 16

"This will lead to a reimagination of Turkish citizenship, the idea of the Turkish nation and Turkey's geopolitical identity."

@galipdalay.bsky.social (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and what it means for 🇹🇷, via @aljazeera.com

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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Jul 8

The Entente Cordiale has never looked better and neither has the Mall.

Truly stunning weather in London today for Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the UK 🇫🇷🇬🇧.

John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · Jul 8

“China’s economy has been growing at roughly the same pace as the world economy since 2020, meaning that China’s share of global GDP – the best measure of relative national power – is now flatlining. By this indicator, China is no longer a rising country.”

The fading power of Xi Jinping

In a system built on secrecy, no one knows the reality behind the scenes, but there are signs China’s leader could be in political trouble