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John R. Deni

@johnrdeni.bsky.social

1.3K followers 110 following 740 posts

Research Professor at PME institution, Senior Nonresident Fellow at Atlantic Council, Associate Nonresident Fellow at NATO Defense College. Author of Coalition of the unWilling and unAble. Views are my own.

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · Nov 22

If US stops supporting UKR's effort to defend itself, can Europe fill the gap? Which countries can do more? What are the hurdles? What can all allies do to promote Europe's ability to carry more of the load? Lisa Aronsson & I address all in latest monograph.
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

©2024 John R. Deni What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Ru...

press.armywarcollege.edu

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 7h

NATO’s New Northern Land Command Inaugurated in Finland -- the Multi-Corps Land Component Command (MC LCC) www.highnorthnews.com/en/natos-new...

NATO’s New Northern Land Command Inaugurated in Finland

On Friday, NATO’s Multi-Corps Land Component Command Northwest officially opened in Mikkeli, Finland. "The MCLCC-NW will strengthen NATO’s defense in the High North and increase security in Finland," ...

www.highnorthnews.com

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 13h

The Atlantic article reinforces this recent piece of analysis: "The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine" ip-quarterly.com/en/case-war-...

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 13h

How Ukraine Turned the Tables on Russia (no pay wall). Best line of the piece is the last one. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

How Ukraine Turned the Tables on Russia

Russia assumed time was on its side, but a new Ukrainian strategy is yielding surprising results.

www.theatlantic.com

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 15h

'Liberating our land, step by step' — Ukraine reports successful counterattack in Dnipropterovsk Oblast kyivindependent.com/ukraine-dnip...

'Liberating our land, step by step' — Ukraine reports successful counterattack in Dnipropterovsk Oblast, shows footage

The Shkval ("squall") assault unit "eliminated" 50 Russian troops in the battle, while eight others were taken prisoner, the 141st Mechanized Brigade reported.

kyivindependent.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 1d

Over 100,000 Western-made parts found in drones, missiles used in Russian recent mass attack, Zelensky says kyivindependent.com/over-100-000...

Over 100,000 Western-made parts found in drones, missiles used in Russian recent mass attack, Zelensky says

The components were reportedly manufactured by companies based in the U.S., China, Taiwan, the U.K., Germany, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands.

kyivindependent.com

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Reposted by John R. Deni

Christian Thiels @christianthiels.bsky.social · 2d

A very good step - overdue, one might argue.

Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 @pravda.ua · 2d

🇩🇰 Denmark tightens checks on oil tankers to halt Russian shadow fleet

Denmark tightens checks on oil tankers to halt Russian shadow fleet

www.pravda.com.ua

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 3d

"This Program Rescued Army Recruiting" (no pay wall) www.nytimes.com/2025/10/04/u...

This Program Rescued Army Recruiting

www.nytimes.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 6d

Hope DEU officials can get this into UKR (and POL and ROM and LTU) for some field testing. "Rheinmetall showcases Mission Master UGV with compact Skyranger [for short-range counter-UAS]" www.janes.com/osint-insigh...

Rheinmetall showcases Mission Master UGV with compact Skyranger

Rheinmetall has integrated one of its Mission Master CXT unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with an Oerlikon Skyranger 762 remote weapon station (RWS) to provide a...

www.janes.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 6d

Great WOTR essay by Zsofia Wolford, James Black, and @paulvanhooft.bsky.social on UK and FRA roles in strengthening strategic deterrence in Europe. Here's hoping many DEU officials read this too! warontherocks.com/2025/09/can-...

Can More British and French Nuclear Cooperation Help Deter Russia?

As Europe continues to come to terms with both the Russian threat amid the war in Ukraine as well as the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. commitment to

warontherocks.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 6d

Russia’s Military Budget Shrinks as War Costs Hit Kremlin’s Economic Limits www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/w...

Russia’s Military Budget Shrinks as War Costs Hit Kremlin’s Economic Limits

www.nytimes.com

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 6d

It's not a $60B military/financial aid package, but it's an important contribution: U.S. to Provide Ukraine With Intelligence for Missile Strikes Deep Inside Russia www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Exclusive | U.S. to Provide Ukraine With Intelligence for Missile Strikes Deep Inside Russia

The expanded intelligence-sharing with Kyiv is the latest sign that President Trump is deepening support for Ukraine as his efforts to advance peace talks have stalled.

www.wsj.com

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 6d

Russian territorial gains in Ukraine drop sharply in September, monitoring group says kyivindependent.com/russian-terr...

Russian territorial gains in Ukraine drop sharply in September, monitoring group says

The pace of Russia’s territorial advances in Ukraine slowed significantly in September, with Russian forces seizing 44% less land compared to August, the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reported ...

kyivindependent.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 7d

Just in time for your furlough-related down time -- check out the latest SSI Live podcast in which guest host MAJ Brennan Deveraux interviews Brian Carlson on RU-PRC rivalry in Central Asia: ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Re...

ssi.armywarcollege.edu

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 8d

Agree on both counts.

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 8d

Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in 9 Years www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/29/p...

Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in 9 Years - The Moscow Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the conscription of 135,000 men by the end of 2025, the largest conscription drive in nine years.

www.themoscowtimes.com

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 9d

Trump threatened NATO exit, Stoltenberg reveals in new memoir - go.shr.lc/4nR9fkh

Trump threatened NATO exit, Stoltenberg reveals in new memoir

Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reveals that Donald Trump nearly pulled the US out of NATO in 2019. His new memoir details tense negotiations, including a Fox News intervention and high...

go.shr.lc

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 11d

'Just shoot them' — Russian commander told troops to open fire on retreating soldiers, intercepted comms suggest kyivindependent.com/russian-comm...

'Just shoot them' — Russian commander told troops to open fire on retreating soldiers, intercepted comms suggest

Ukraine's military intelligence said the recording captured a conversation in Donetsk Oblast in which the commander demanded that troops stand their ground at all costs.

kyivindependent.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 12d

US Army Moves to Strengthen 155mm Shell Stocks With $640M Buy thedefensepost.com/2025/09/26/u...

US Army Secures $640M Deal to Boost 155mm Ammunition

The US Army 155mm ammunition procurement program secures a $640M deal to strengthen stockpiles amid growing demand.

thedefensepost.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 13d

Germany backs EU’s ‘creative’ plan to send frozen Russian cash to Ukraine www.politico.eu/article/germ...

Germany backs EU’s ‘creative’ plan to send frozen Russian cash to Ukraine

Talks will come to a head during an informal meeting of EU leaders in Copenhagen next week.

www.politico.eu

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 14d

To Understand Ukraine at War, Stop by a Gas Station (no paywall) www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/w...

To Understand Ukraine at War, Stop by a Gas Station

www.nytimes.com

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 14d

Russia Moves to Raise VAT by 2% as Budget Deficit Swells: Weaker global oil prices, a stronger ruble and high interest rates have sapped growth this year, forcing the government to find ways to make up for the lost revenues. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/24/r...

Russia Moves to Raise VAT by 2% as Budget Deficit Swells - The Moscow Times

Russia’s Finance Ministry on Wednesday proposed raising the country’s value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% starting next year, as part of a new three-year budget plan aimed at covering surging defens...

www.themoscowtimes.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 14d

Clearly somebody in authority has recently been reading this latest essay from Elisabeth Nielsen and me on "The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine" ip-quarterly.com/en/case-war-...

The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine

History shows that long-term conflicts tend to work to the underdog’s advantage, and defeat often has dramatic consequences for the aggressor. That’s why the West, Europe in particular, should dramati...

ip-quarterly.com

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 15d

Lede buried? Yes, "Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons," but I'd argue most important takeaway is literally the last line of the article: "Taken together, they add up to a comprehensive modernization effort touching every branch of the armed forces." www.politico.eu/article/germ...

Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons

A procurement plan obtained by POLITICO shows Berlin’s rearmament spree will overwhelmingly benefit European industry.

www.politico.eu

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 16d

Great that POL is leaning forward on this long overdue change to rules of engagement, but NATO needs to make such an announcement as well: "Poland will shoot down encroaching Russian aircraft, warns PM Tusk" www.politico.eu/article/pola...

Poland will shoot down encroaching Russian aircraft, warns PM Tusk

The Polish prime minister is responding to the growing number of Russian incursions into NATO airspace.

www.politico.eu

John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 19d

Given yet *another* intentional violation -- this time by three RU MiG-31 fighters -- I'm re-upping this essay in which I suggest how NATO could actually put the 'denial' in Deterrence By Denial: www.politico.eu/article/nato...