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John Sugden

@johnsug.bsky.social

480 followers 13 following 49 posts

Armchair analytics for ultramarathons I'll likely never run

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John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Jun 29

A warmer year led to lower top-10 times in both fields, but yesterday was still an exciting #wser

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

Are you giving Laz a copy to hide in Frozen Head next year? 😆

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

*since at least 1995, @taka-does-stuff.bsky.social 's database only goes back that far

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

this year was brutal -- looks like the fewest total loops completed (and average loops per runner) since 1995 #bm100

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

final tracker (more or less -- still don't know who was the tenth runner to complete the first loop) -- congrats on a fun time in Frozen Head, John Kelly! #bm100

Reposted by John Sugden

Jason DeJoannis @jdejoannis.bsky.social · Mar 20

Need to zoom in on the #bm100 fun run zone i.e. till 4am. The main issue will be the wind but temps and clouds should hold off for a bit.

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

For anyone else, I'd say no, but I'm not ready to bet against Tomo and John

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 20

weather forecasts from www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Frozen...

"Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Freeze-thaw conditions (max 13°C on Wed night, min -4°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (severe gales from the SSW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning)." #bm100

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

Keith posted that four started loop 3, though Max quickly noped out

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

I forgot Sébastien Raichon raced last year; it took him 13:29:13 to complete loop 3; he'd have to complete loop 3 again in 14:30:45 for a fun run this year

3/2 (oops, I guess people usually write out their multi-thread posts first)

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

For John Kelly to go to Loop 4, he'd need to finish in 10:59:20. His prior loop 3 finishes (in likely better years) were 12:12:49, 12:24:25, 12:39:59, 15:52:08, 11:56:59, and 12:09:08. I'm skeptical about him completing an 11 hour loop, but he has lots of margin (14:59:20) to go for a fun run

2/2

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

correct

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

random #bm100 maths; for Tomo to go onto loop 3, he'd need a loop 3 time of 11:27:10; his prior loop 3 finishes were 15:13:08, 13:08:46, and 12:34:22, so this would be a bit of a stretch. However, he has a leisurely 15:27:10 to complete a fun run -- totally do-able.

1/2

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

more or less, how things look now #bm100

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

"Max seems relaxed"
30 minutes later "Max is out"
Lol

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

ooops, that's what I get for commenting without reading the whole thread

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see either completing loop 3 in 11 hours, to make the 36 hour cutoff to start loop 4. That being said, both are capable to finish under the 40 hour fun run.

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

A fun run is a strong possibility for Tomo; he's roughly in the same spot as he was in 2019 which resulted in a fun run as well #bm100

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

Apologies for the grainy graphics, I still have yet to find a way to make compelling-looking visuals on Bluesky :/

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

It's hard to update the tracker when we don't know which six runners are still out there, but the best update I can do it this: The #bm100 has been on-going for 23+ hours now. Since 1998, only 26% of runners who took over 23 hours to finish loop 2 even made it to a fun run :/

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

But could also be Domo

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

Based on the limited entrants list, Aurélien (who finished in 2023 but only finished two loops last year)

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

brutal

John Sugden @johnsug.bsky.social · Mar 19

Ask @taka-does-stuff.bsky.social