Jo Michell
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jomichell.bsky.social
Jo Michell
@jomichell.bsky.social
8.7K followers 930 following 4.4K posts
Professor of economics at UWE Bristol. Chair of Post-Keynesian Economics Society. Interested in macro, finance, banking, climate change, inequality, demographics.

https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/JoMichell
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jomichell.bsky.social
I’m very fond of this line of hipster Irish Asian-style chilli condiments.
January 10, 2026 at 11:09 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
Graduate economists in the US learning about labour market supply and demand the hard way. www.ft.com/content/eb08...
A chart showing that recruitment in economics has fallen faster than other subjects including english, history and philosophy.
January 9, 2026 at 10:07 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
I know that reading Ganesh is just falling for the troll clickbait but seriously? We should be relieved that Trump kidnapped a head of state and is threatening to invade Greenland because it shows he’s just a regular GOP guy?
If you have the mightiest armed forces in the world at your disposal, it takes supernatural restraint not to use them. (Even Barack Obama struck Libya.) If a country has extreme concentrations of private wealth, the state cannot help but be captured in the end. If anything, we should be reassured that even an individual as peculiar as Trump ends up reverting to a certain template.
January 7, 2026 at 8:27 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
Source:
From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years Matias Covarrubias, New York University Germán Gutierrez, New York University Thomas Philippon, New York University, CEPR, and NBER
January 7, 2026 at 1:41 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
Oldish paper now (2020) but neat summary table.

Corporate concentration can be ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Which is occurring can be identified using a series of indicators.

Since 2000, these indicators all point to ‘bad’ concentration.
Table titled Summary of Test Measures and Predictions. Shows results of several tests for type of concentration: - Exit rate - Correlation of CR, TFP - Correlation of ACR, AP - Aggregate investment rate - Leader investment rate. - Leader turnover Where CR = concentration ratio; TFP = total factor productivity. All indicators have signs that are consistent with ‘bad’ concentration.
January 7, 2026 at 1:39 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
There is nothing about any of this which requires, or is even made more efficient by, blockchain. If you can write code to work with 'tokenised' deposits you can write it to work with normal ones. www.ft.com/content/671a...
This code can program a deposit to invest into an Isa if enough savings have been made in a certain month, or pay off the exact amount of energy consumed rather than relying on a direct debit, or snap up a stock if the price falls to a certain level. “Tokenised deposits are an evolution of electronic money to digital programmable money,” said Gilbert Verdian, chief executive of Quant, a financial infrastructure company that is working with the banks. Proponents say that so-called programmable money will make banks more efficient, boost liquidity and make transactions faster.
January 7, 2026 at 11:07 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
This sounds absolutely awful.

www.ft.com/content/6a33...
Tangle, which is at present accessible on an invite-only basis, suggests users share personal objectives or "intentions" with their friends, support each other's goals and "reflect" on how they are achieved. "It is a tool for meaning that helps people plan with intention, capture the reality of their days, and see the deeper threads that shape their life," the company said in a recent job advertisement.
January 4, 2026 at 10:48 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
Pleasant forest walk marred only by accidentally following the “wellbeing trail”
December 31, 2025 at 4:38 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
Smith, Ricardo and even Wolf.
thinkers of the 19th century, proposed allowing people to own land, but subject to a tax of 100 per cent of its unimproved rental value: in other words, there was no value in unimproved land. In order to make money, landowners had to somehow put that land to good use. Proponents of a land value tax include some of the greatest thinkers in economics: Adam Smith, David Ricardo and even Martin Wolf. That is a list of endorsements that speaks for itself.
December 22, 2025 at 9:06 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
If “this is how it used to be” refers to the situation before World War Two, it is no longer relevant. Any discussion of reformed fiscal rules should acknowledge that deficits are the normal state of affairs.
Within that, governments can run a budget deficit or surplus, depending on conditions and where the country is in the economic cycle. Deficits are normal, indeed necessary and perfectly healthy, in recessions. Surpluses can be expected when the economy is booming, tax revenues are flooding in and unemployment falling. That was how it used to be. These days, budget surpluses are as rare as hen's teeth: there have only been ten in the past 70 years and none in the past 25. This government is not aiming for an overall surplus. In the
December 21, 2025 at 4:10 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
Richard Murphy is encouraging people to generate AI spam and send it to their MPs.
If you want to write a letter to your MP on the issues raised in this blog post, there is a ChatGPT prompt to assist you in doing so, with full instructions, here. One word of warning, though: please ensure you have the correct MP. ChatGPT can get it wrong. My name is [Insert]. My email address is [Insert]. I am happy to correspond electronically. My address is [Insert in full, including postcode]. Please identify my MP based on my above-noted address, making sure you are identifying the MP elected in July 2024 or since then, if a by-election has been held. Double check you have identified my MP correctly using this website. https://members.parliament.uk/FindYourMP I want you to write a letter to my MP. The letter should raise my concerns about the issues raised in this blog post [Insert blog post url]. The text of the blog post in question is [Copy the post to here]. I would like you to: Include a title in the letter based on the primary issue addressed in this post. Summarise the concerns raised in the blog post using numbered paragraphs. If you wish to highlight the subject of each paragraph using bold text in its first sentence, please feel free to do so. You do not need to reference the source material, but can if you want to do so. Summarise the issues arising from the concerns, again using numbered paragraphs, and again using bold text in the first sentence of each paragraph to highlight what the issue arising is, if you think it appropriate. Ask the MP to take action. Please feel free to generate possibilities within the range of those normally open to an MP, but you might wish to mention: Raising the issue with a minister Asking a question in the House Tabling an Early Day Motion Supporting a Commons committee investigating the issue Raising the matter with an All Party Parliamentary Group Ask the MP to provide feedback on actions taken and responses received. The tone of the letter should be polite and confident but should make it clear that a response is expected, as is action. Please include my MP's full address. Add today's date to the letter. Put the title after the salutation. Put my name and address in the opening paragraph as MPs need to know that information. Thank you for your assistance.
December 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
This is what the online systems increasingly try and to usher me into. Hard no.
A screenshot of an academic teaching tool populated with AI slop.
December 17, 2025 at 9:34 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
So AI will last for about 30 years then spectacularly collapse?
"We are in a Bretton Woods moment," said Lehane. "In 1944, democratic nations came together to create a financial system based on democratic values. We're now at a similar moment with the laying of the AI rails."
December 16, 2025 at 8:41 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
I don't understand this. What's the mechanism here: is there some kind of pre-funding of the Treasury account that drains reserves for the period prior to actual spending?
Massive deficits funded with short-term debt require the Treasury’s bank account (the Treasury general account) to grow. This expansion sucks cash (or, if you prefer, “liquidity”) out of the financial system. Scarce liquidity, in turn, forces short-term interest rates up — potentially wresting control of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
December 16, 2025 at 10:57 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
I feel like we’ve been hearing this for a while now … with not much to show for it?
"If you think about digital assets and tokenised deposits with AI, you can suddenly redesign significant parts of financial services," Lloyds Bank chief executive Charlie Nunn told the FT Banking Summit this month.
December 16, 2025 at 9:37 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
I also think this chart (on which Osborne is basing his claim) is rather dubious.

I *think* the blue line is the first published number for four-quarter growth. That means revisions to the base quarter over time are ignored. This is being compared to a consistent-base series in the pink line.
An FT chart showing that GDP growth numbers are often revised upwards.
December 15, 2025 at 6:02 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
An incredible statement. Does he really think that all is well in UK political economy in the year 2025? (Posted on X two days ago).
A post on X from George Osborne declaring that 'the long term economic plan worked', referring to a recent FT article highlighting upward revisions to historical growth rates.
December 15, 2025 at 5:54 PM
jomichell.bsky.social
Good timing for this graph to make a reappearance:

New research on the connection between austerity and falling wages.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Estimating the effects of austerity on the labour market: Evidence from Great Britain Robert Calvert Jump University of Greenwich - Business School Jo Michell University of the West of England (UWE) Thomas Rabensteiner Independent - affiliation not provided to SSRN Erikas Norvaisa University of Greenwich - University of Greenwich December 15, 2025 Abstract Between 2010 and 2019, in response to concern about the public finances, the UK government imposed substantial cuts to public spending. This austerity programme was justified in public using theories of 'expansionary fiscal contractions', which posited both aggregate demand and labour supply effects. While the former have been explored in depth, the supply-side effects of austerity have received less attention. In this paper, we estimate the effects of austerity on the labour market using evidence from Great Britain. Using continuous treatment difference-in-differences models estimated on district-level data, we find that austerity reduced labour costs and increased employment rates. Our results also suggest that austerity reduced local output, implying that austerity was partly responsible for the UK's low productivity growth after 2010.
December 15, 2025 at 11:52 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
We also find an association between intensity of austerity and productivity. Weak demand and growth alongside rising employment results in falling productivity.

We therefore find evidence that austerity contributed to the so-called productivity puzzle.
A figure showing a negative effect on log gross value added per worker of welfare cuts.
December 15, 2025 at 11:03 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
We find that areas with greater public spending cuts saw greater reductions in wages and increases in employment.

For each £100 of austerity (per working age adult per year) average hourly pay was reduced by around 7.5 pence. Given average cuts of around £450, these are meaningful effects.
Figures showing point estimates and confidence intervals of the effects of £100 of welfare cuts per working age adult on (a) employment rates and (b) median gross hourly pay. Employment rates have a positive response to cuts while pay reacts negatively.
December 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
We explore this mechanism using a continuous treatment diff-in-diff estimation, using @trfetzer.com's austerity dataset as the treatment variable and labour market outcomes as the dependent variables.
A figure showing a map of Great Britain using colour to represent the geographical distribution of the intensity of welfare cuts introduced by the 2010 Coalition government. Cuts varied from under £300 (per working age adult) to over £800. The South East of England excluding London) experienced the lightest cuts.
December 15, 2025 at 10:58 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
Advocates for expansionary austerity proposed another, less explored, mechanism: austerity imposes a negative bargaining shock on workers. Lower wages will lead to expansion of employment.
A decrease in government employment, in government wages, and in unemployment benefits can have positive effects on the economy because it makes the labor market less tight . . . Any decrease in these public spending items lowers pressure on the equilibrium wage with positive consequences for the economy. (Ardagna, 2004, pp.1051).
December 15, 2025 at 10:54 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
Post-2010 austerity was justified using theories of 'expansionary fiscal contraction'. These posit both aggregate demand and labour supply effects.

The former refer to confidence effects: lower interest rates lead to a spending boom. It is now widely accepted that these effects failed to emerge.
... fiscal stabilizations may be expansionary if agents believe that the fiscal tightening generates a change in regime that “eliminates the need for larger, maybe much more disruptive adjustments in the future” . . . If agents believe that the stabilization is credible and avoids a default on government debt, they can ask for a lower premium on government bonds. Private demand components sensitive to the real interest rate can increase if the reduction in the interest rate paid on government bonds leads to a reduction in the real interest rate charged to consumers and firms. (Ardagna, 2004, pp.1050).
December 15, 2025 at 10:53 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
This is hyperbole, but still 🤔
Kirk said he thought government bonds were interesting again. "Whereas maybe nine, 12 months ago, we all thought that no one's ever buying govvies ever again, that all governments are bust and the returns are awful, but I think if there's a sell-off next year, government bonds are going up."
December 14, 2025 at 8:46 AM
jomichell.bsky.social
Green sauce please but hold the MMT.
Some close to Polanski in the party are fans of Modern Monetary Theory, one person familiar with his inner circle said. That's the idea, controversial among economists, that a country with its own currency doesn't have to worry about accumulating too much debt because it can always print more money to pay interest, leaving inflation the main constraint on spending. But others in the Green Party are unconvinced about MMT - and want to use Verdant as a vehicle for researching progressive ideas that can also garner mainstream appeal. The two initiators of Verdant are James Meadway, an economist and former adviser to Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, and Deborah Doane, a partner at the Rights CoLab which creates strategies to advance human rights. "It's widely accepted by this point that the current fiscal framework isn't working as intended, trapping the government in cycles of market turmoil and political turbulence," Meadway said. "But any replacement, including alternative sets of rules, and greater monetary and fiscal coordination, will have to be aware of Britain's international exposures and the need to carefully manage its substantial liabilities in conditions of higher inflation and interest rates worldwide.
December 12, 2025 at 3:24 PM