AI Futures Project (authors of AI 2027) have released an updated model, with somewhat longer timelines blog.ai-futures.org/p/ai-futures...

"How, exactly, could AI take over by 2027?"

Introducing AI 2027: a deeply researched scenario forecast I wrote with Daniel Kokoatjlo, Scott Alexander, and others.

The scenario: ai-2027.com
PDF version: ai-2027.com/scenario.pdf

There has been a lack of near-term "hard science fiction" on might happen if supersmart AI is actually possible soon

This is just such a story written by some long-time key thinkers in AI. It is, no doubt, very wrong on most things, but reading it (& the footnotes) can still be useful. ai-2027.com