Jonathan Mann
@jonathanmann.bsky.social
I'm a forecasting professional with Good Judgment (Superforecaster), RAND (INFER Pro), and Samotsvety. I currently work as a Security Architect and was previously a Data Scientist on Wall Street. I also teach computer science as adjunct faculty at NYU.
Also, check out this podcast with two of the authors: www.dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas accelerating AI progress
www.dwarkesh.com
April 3, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Also, check out this podcast with two of the authors: www.dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel
Looks like a great start. Are you looking for feedback or just putting it out there for others to build on?
March 10, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Looks like a great start. Are you looking for feedback or just putting it out there for others to build on?
Reposted by Jonathan Mann
When you write your post about which experts to trust, make sure to mention exponential weights. Even when the experts select their predictions adversarially, exponential weights is only O(\sqrt{T}) worse than the best expert in hindsight. See the proof here:
www.mit.edu/~9.520/sprin...
www.mit.edu/~9.520/sprin...
www.mit.edu
January 17, 2025 at 4:42 AM
When you write your post about which experts to trust, make sure to mention exponential weights. Even when the experts select their predictions adversarially, exponential weights is only O(\sqrt{T}) worse than the best expert in hindsight. See the proof here:
www.mit.edu/~9.520/sprin...
www.mit.edu/~9.520/sprin...