Joni Askola
@joniaskola.bsky.social
22K followers 460 following 5.8K posts
Finnish PhD candidate and geopolitical analyst. Trying to help Ukraine with the 69th Sniffing Brigade https://buymeacoffee.com/joni_askola
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joniaskola.bsky.social
Must have been exhausting juggling book deals, concert planning, and rehearsals while his country is in crisis. Truly the mark of a dedicated leader. No wonder Trump is giving him $20 billion. Grifters stick together
en.afp.com
🇦🇷 VIDEO: Argentina's Milei plays rock star as Argentina's economy crashes

Argentine President Javier Milei headlines a concert in Buenos Aires to mark the release of a book he hopes will revive his sagging fortunes, as the country continues to navigate a period of political and economic uncertainty
joniaskola.bsky.social
Sanctions work
joniaskola.bsky.social
Putin often claims that sanctions hurt the West more than they hurt Russia, but he also keeps asking us to remove them. If that were really true, he’d be asking for more sanctions, not fewer
joniaskola.bsky.social
Russia is still losing the war
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/7 Why is Ukraine still winning and Russia still losing the war?

This thread lists a few key facts that Putin would prefer you forget
joniaskola.bsky.social
Hope is back!
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/7 Ukraine: Hope is slowly coming back.

After years of brutal war, 2025 has brought a renewed sense of possibility for Ukraine and its supporters.

The war remains devastating, but recent developments are starting to shift the narrative and reshape international perceptions
joniaskola.bsky.social
Time is not on Russia’s side in Ukraine
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/7 Several ongoing and upcoming developments are turning out to be very unfavorable for Russia
joniaskola.bsky.social
7/7 Ukraine is winning because Russia cannot achieve its strategic goal.

In war, if the aggressor fails to reach its strategic goal, it loses.

Ukraine’s resilience has turned Russia’s invasion into a long, costly, and unsustainable failure. Things will only get worse for Russia
joniaskola.bsky.social
6/7 Russia cannot stop the war because stopping would lock in defeat.

Ukraine is still standing strong.

Finland and Sweden joined NATO.

Russia is more isolated than before the war. It is also weakened and stuck in a war it cannot afford to win or end
joniaskola.bsky.social
5/7 Russia’s strategic goal was total domination over Ukraine. It failed.

If you break into your neighbor’s house but cannot get past the second door, you have not succeeded. You have failed.

Russia started this war. It is the active side. And it is losing
joniaskola.bsky.social
4/7 The cost?

Over 1 million Russian casualties. A war that is draining Russia financially and demographically.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is more sovereign, more militarized, and more united than ever before.

NATO has also expanded
joniaskola.bsky.social
3/7 At its peak in March 2022, Russia occupied nearly 30% of Ukraine. Now it holds about 19%.

It has failed to capture any of the 23 regional capitals Ukraine controlled at the start of the war.

0 out of 23. A staggering failure!

Map: ISW
joniaskola.bsky.social
2/7 Russia launched its full-scale invasion over 3.5 years ago to overthrow Ukraine’s government and turn it into a satellite state.

Today, it is further from that goal than ever before, even more so than before the war.

That is a clear strategic failure
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/7 Why is Ukraine still winning and Russia still losing the war?

This thread lists a few key facts that Putin would prefer you forget
joniaskola.bsky.social
7/7 The war may still last, but the direction is right.

Russia keeps failing to reach its strategic goals.

Ukraine is adapting, Europe is stepping up, and Russia is feeling the consequences.

Let’s support Ukraine fully and help end this unjust war
joniaskola.bsky.social
6/7 These strikes are not just tactical wins. They are strategic tools that bring the war home to Russia and increase its cost.

The more effective Ukraine’s strikes become, the more pressure Russia will face
joniaskola.bsky.social
5/7 Ukraine’s corps reform is progressing, even if slower than expected.

Zelensky’s leadership remains stable.

Strike capabilities are improving, and attacks on Russian refineries are having real impact, much bigger than before
joniaskola.bsky.social
4/7 Europe is finally waking up.

It is preparing to unlock frozen Russian assets for Ukraine. This move could help fund the war effort and send a clear message to Moscow: Ukraine will not be outlasted
joniaskola.bsky.social
3/7 Trump’s election raised doubts about Western support.

Zelensky and European leaders managed to limit the damage.

Ukraine can still buy US weapons, and Trump has failed to force a bad deal with Moscow
joniaskola.bsky.social
2/7 Ukraine still faces serious challenges: mobilization issues, slow command reforms, hesitation from allies, and internal political battles.

Russia keeps advancing slowly and at extremely high cost.

Many supporters lost hope, and there were valid reasons to worry
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/7 Ukraine: Hope is slowly coming back.

After years of brutal war, 2025 has brought a renewed sense of possibility for Ukraine and its supporters.

The war remains devastating, but recent developments are starting to shift the narrative and reshape international perceptions
joniaskola.bsky.social
Will he achieve that by pardoning all his friends?
joniaskola.bsky.social
Putin often claims that sanctions hurt the West more than they hurt Russia, but he also keeps asking us to remove them. If that were really true, he’d be asking for more sanctions, not fewer
joniaskola.bsky.social
7/7 Russia gambled on outlasting Ukraine and the West. But Ukraine is adapting, Europe is waking up, and the costs for Moscow are rising.

The war is coming home to Russia. And that is exactly what needs to happen
joniaskola.bsky.social
6/7 This is not just about justice. It is about deterrence.

If Russia pays no price for its aggression, it will keep going.

Financing Ukraine with Russian assets is both morally right and strategically necessary
joniaskola.bsky.social
5/7 Europe must do everything it can to find a legal path to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

Russia does not deserve to ever see that money again. It continues to escalate its illegal war and commit daily war crimes
joniaskola.bsky.social
4/7 The longer the war lasts, the higher the cost for both sides. But Russia is now regularly feeling the war far from the front lines.

Strategic infrastructure is under threat. The illusion of distance is gone. Russia’s oil production is facing a real threat