Cherry picking this to debunk the whole climate modelling exercise is clearly a bad faith argument, but these sort of trend errors would, at face value, be a real issue for e.g. an agro sector end user and should be a focus for model development.
The issue with JJA T2m trends over the US is consistent with this paper www.nature.com/articles/s41... linking the strength of a warm/dry bias over the central US to magnitude of regional temperature change. It's a common issue and relates to convective precip and land-atmosphere coupling.
The key findings are: 1. Regions such as western North America, southern Europe, and Central Asia show further potential for seasonal temperature and precipitation prediction skill based on soil moisture anomalies.
Reminds me of this ill fated prediction of a sea ice free Arctic from Wadhams: www.theguardian.com/environment/.... following a similar methodology of fitting an exponential.
🌍 New preprint: "Soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling hotspots in seasonal forecasts of boreal summer" explores how soil moisture affects seasonal predictions & highlights areas for improvement. Read here: doi.org/10.21203/rs....#ClimateScience#SeasonalForecasting#LandAtmosphereInteractions
