Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · May 19

Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.

8

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · May 11

Second that!!

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · May 8

Good to hear from you! But unfortunately I won't be going. Sorry to miss you. Would have been great to catch up.

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Apr 22

Congratulations @s-stantcheva.bsky.social !!!

Wonderful choice!

1 6 38

Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽

The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · Apr 16

#QJE May 2025, #1, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870*

Abstract. We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the

doi.org

1 3 10

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Apr 5

The Fed spent down a lot of credibility when it looked through the temporary post-Covid inflation and managed to engineer a rare soft landing. But this probably means it has less of an ability to do so again now (less credibility). That means a more aggressive approach is probably optimal this time

3 2 18

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Mar 11

I guess Trump is going for import substitution policy. That sure made lots of countries rich in the past.

1 2 7

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Mar 6

Welcome!

2

Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽

Stefano DellaVigna @sdellavi.bsky.social · Mar 5

I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social

9 13 100

Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · Mar 4

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy:

- defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake
- 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure
- looser debt rules for states
- further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

18 220 670

Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽

American Bar Association @americanbar.org · Mar 3

The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession. Read full message: www.americanbar.org/news/abanews...

We speak today on behalf of the legal profession and its members who seek to live by the oath each took upon admission to the bar.

We reject efforts to undermine the courts and the profession. We will not stay silent in the face of efforts to remake the legal profession into something that rewards those who agree with the government and punishes those who do not. Words and actions matter. And the intimidating words and actions we have heard must end. They are designed to cow our country’s judges, our country’s courts and our legal profession. These efforts cannot be sanctioned or normalized.

There are clear choices facing our profession. We can choose to remain silent and allow these acts to continue or we can stand for the rule of law and the values we hold dear. We call upon the entire profession, including lawyers who serve in elected positions, to speak out against intimidation. We acknowledge that there are risks to standing up and addressing these important issues. But if the ABA and lawyers do not speak, who will speak for the organized bar? Who will speak for the judiciary? Who will protect our system of justice? If we don’t speak now, when will we speak?

The American Bar Association has chosen to stand and speak. Now is the time for all of us to speak with one voice. We invite you to stand with us.

51 400 950

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 18

For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · Feb 17

Here's each G7 country's cumulative increase in real GDP per capita, since just before the pandemic:

🇺🇸 +9.4%
🇮🇹 +6.5% (thru Q3)
🇯🇵 +3.1%
🇫🇷 +1.8% (thru Q3)
🇬🇧 -1.1%
🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q3)
🇨🇦 -2.0% (thru Q3)

a graph of GDP per capita growth by G7 country

1 1 4

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 15

These DOGE guys are so smart!!!

"Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"

CNN @cnn.com · Feb 15

Trump administration officials fired more than 300 staffers Thursday night at the National Nuclear Security Administration — the agency tasked with managing the nation’s nuclear stockpile — as part of broader Energy Department layoffs, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

Trump officials fired nuclear staff not realizing they oversee the country’s weapons stockpile, sources say | CNN

Some of the fired probationary employees included on-the-ground staff at facilities where nuclear weapons are built.

cnn.it

3

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

Hard to tell. But more and more feasible.

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

We are trending towards less and less cash. So, the fiscal costs of the penny are not likely to balloon fast. So, overall, not a big deal. But on balance I support getting rid of the penny. 9/

2 1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

The attachment argument is the only reasonable argument I can think of in favor of the penny. The economic argument for the penny is super weak (IMHO). But then the argument against the penny is not that strong. $40 million is not a lot of money for a big country. 8/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

Now, some people are attached to the penny. Just like others are attached to national parks (which the government spends money on). So, perhaps that attachment is worth $40 million a year. Totally reasonable debate. I am not attached to the penny. So, I support getting rid of it. 7/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

The rounding issue would be a bigger deal for the nickel. So, it is worth a bit more to keep the nickel. 6/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

Firms would continue to want to price at $9.99 etc. for psychological reasons. But then taxes are added and you buy several items at a time. The final digit of the total price of your purchase (with taxes) quickly becomes random. So, rounding would be symmetric. 5/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

Getting rid of the penny would entail rounding of prices. But that is not a big deal. Rounding is symmetric. So, prices need not rise on average and probably wouldn't. 4/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

The fiscal cost of the penny is small. About $40 million per year on average. (The cost of the nickel is larger. More like $80 million.) So, modest fiscal savings. 3/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

It costs 3.7 cents to produce a penny (and rising). So, the government is losing money on the penny. But the government spends money on lots of things. Is it worth it? 2/

1

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 13

Getting rid of the penny seems sensible to me. But there are arguments on both sides. Here are a few. 1/

2 1 8

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · Feb 11

Next chapter will be about interest rates.

Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽

Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · Feb 11

This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray.

The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.

That's wrong 🧵

5 9 44