Jeremy Cliffe
@jeremycliffe.bsky.social
Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (@ecfr.eu)
https://ecfr.eu/
https://ecfr.eu/
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Economic giant*, political dwarf-struggle still going strong in German society:
Germans welcoming doubling of military spending in @koerber-ip.bsky.social #BerlinPulse, whilst not wanting Germany to assume military leadership in EU.
* though sadly this might also be up for debate, anyways
Germans welcoming doubling of military spending in @koerber-ip.bsky.social #BerlinPulse, whilst not wanting Germany to assume military leadership in EU.
* though sadly this might also be up for debate, anyways
November 25, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Economic giant*, political dwarf-struggle still going strong in German society:
Germans welcoming doubling of military spending in @koerber-ip.bsky.social #BerlinPulse, whilst not wanting Germany to assume military leadership in EU.
* though sadly this might also be up for debate, anyways
Germans welcoming doubling of military spending in @koerber-ip.bsky.social #BerlinPulse, whilst not wanting Germany to assume military leadership in EU.
* though sadly this might also be up for debate, anyways
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
‼️📢 New @ecfr.eu brief
Our programme director, Alex Vines wrote a piece on #Angola, host of the current AU-EU Summit. The country is pursuing a strategy of purposeful non-alignment and is becoming an increasingly important “middle power” in the world.
📑🌍👇
Our programme director, Alex Vines wrote a piece on #Angola, host of the current AU-EU Summit. The country is pursuing a strategy of purposeful non-alignment and is becoming an increasingly important “middle power” in the world.
📑🌍👇
Middle power dreaming: The geopolitics of Angola’s emergence | ECFR
Angola is increasingly active in the world. Here is how Europeans can cooperate with this rising middle power.
buff.ly
November 24, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Imagine doing this not *even* because you're terrified of the autocrat in your own country, but because you're terrified of the autocrat an ocean away.
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Imagine doing this not *even* because you're terrified of the autocrat in your own country, but because you're terrified of the autocrat an ocean away.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
✍️ The EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act could offer a useful framework for Europeans and Gulf partners to work together, argue @cinziabianco.bsky.social & Herman Quarles for @ECFRPower ecfr.eu/article/trum...
Trump’s AI thaw: How Europe and the Gulf can protect against American and Chinese tech pressure | ECFR
Recent changes in US policy have brought the US and Gulf states together again on AI—creating new openings for European decision-makers
buff.ly
November 24, 2025 at 10:27 AM
✍️ The EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act could offer a useful framework for Europeans and Gulf partners to work together, argue @cinziabianco.bsky.social & Herman Quarles for @ECFRPower ecfr.eu/article/trum...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president, writes Majda Ruge.
https://bit.ly/43Q4K24
https://bit.ly/43Q4K24
MAGA goes south: Trump’s plan for Venezuela
Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president…
bit.ly
November 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president, writes Majda Ruge.
https://bit.ly/43Q4K24
https://bit.ly/43Q4K24
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:40 PM
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare (by @jkobzova.bsky.social)
ecfr.eu/article/what...
ecfr.eu/article/what...
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare.
ecfr.eu
November 23, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare (by @jkobzova.bsky.social)
ecfr.eu/article/what...
ecfr.eu/article/what...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
The Moscow Times: „The very emergence of such a U.S. initiative signals, in Putin’s view, that Washington is capitulating. And capitulating not because it has suffered losses — it has lost neither tanks nor aircraft nor soldiers — but because it is tired,frightened and eager to avoid involvement.“
November 22, 2025 at 5:28 AM
The Moscow Times: „The very emergence of such a U.S. initiative signals, in Putin’s view, that Washington is capitulating. And capitulating not because it has suffered losses — it has lost neither tanks nor aircraft nor soldiers — but because it is tired,frightened and eager to avoid involvement.“
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
The EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act could offer a useful framework for Europeans and Gulf partners to work together, write @cinziabianco.bsky.social and Herman Quarles @ecfrmena.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3MdxkEk
https://bit.ly/3MdxkEk
Trump’s AI thaw: How Europe and the Gulf can protect against American and Chinese tech pressure
Recent changes in US policy have brought the US and Gulf states together again on AI—creating new openings for European decision-makers…
bit.ly
November 20, 2025 at 3:07 PM
The EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act could offer a useful framework for Europeans and Gulf partners to work together, write @cinziabianco.bsky.social and Herman Quarles @ecfrmena.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3MdxkEk
https://bit.ly/3MdxkEk
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social
Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…
ecfr.eu
November 20, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social
The radical right *is* rising across much of Europe. But the narrative that young people are leading the charge is overblown.
Gen Z is turning away from mainstream parties, but often the beneficiaries are left-insurgents like England's Greens, France's LFI, or Germany's Linke.
Gen Z is turning away from mainstream parties, but often the beneficiaries are left-insurgents like England's Greens, France's LFI, or Germany's Linke.
The Greens are winning the support of around half of 18 to 24 year olds.
Reform are on 5%. So much for young people's turn to the right!
And the Young Greens now have 40,000 members - the biggest youth and students wing in British politics
Reform are on 5%. So much for young people's turn to the right!
And the Young Greens now have 40,000 members - the biggest youth and students wing in British politics
November 20, 2025 at 6:49 PM
The radical right *is* rising across much of Europe. But the narrative that young people are leading the charge is overblown.
Gen Z is turning away from mainstream parties, but often the beneficiaries are left-insurgents like England's Greens, France's LFI, or Germany's Linke.
Gen Z is turning away from mainstream parties, but often the beneficiaries are left-insurgents like England's Greens, France's LFI, or Germany's Linke.
A fascinating, urgent new paper from @ecfr.eu: the West Bank is at risk of collapse, its government is sclerotic, and technocratic solutions are no answer.
@hlovatt.bsky.social and @tahanimustafa.bsky.social argue that the answer is a bold revival of Palestinian politics.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
@hlovatt.bsky.social and @tahanimustafa.bsky.social argue that the answer is a bold revival of Palestinian politics.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…
ecfr.eu
November 20, 2025 at 5:56 PM
A fascinating, urgent new paper from @ecfr.eu: the West Bank is at risk of collapse, its government is sclerotic, and technocratic solutions are no answer.
@hlovatt.bsky.social and @tahanimustafa.bsky.social argue that the answer is a bold revival of Palestinian politics.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
@hlovatt.bsky.social and @tahanimustafa.bsky.social argue that the answer is a bold revival of Palestinian politics.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Volodymyr Zelensky has struck a deal to strengthen Ukraine’s winter energy reserves. Europe should now help Kyiv diversify its imports and guard its domestic gas fields with a robust air defence, writes @alberto-rizzi.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4pbu1vQ
https://bit.ly/4pbu1vQ
Shield the fields: How Europe can support Ukraine through a dark winter
Volodymyr Zelensky has struck a deal to strengthen Ukraine’s winter energy reserves. Europe should now help Kyiv diversify its imports and guard its domestic gas fields with a robust air defence…
bit.ly
November 19, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Volodymyr Zelensky has struck a deal to strengthen Ukraine’s winter energy reserves. Europe should now help Kyiv diversify its imports and guard its domestic gas fields with a robust air defence, writes @alberto-rizzi.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4pbu1vQ
https://bit.ly/4pbu1vQ
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
This is just such a stunning chart
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 11:58 PM
This is just such a stunning chart
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
This was clearly my favourite read of the week.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
The EU’s only real path forward is to move from hesitation to decision and action, write Ilke Toygür and Catherine de Vries @ecfrpower.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47EDcz1
https://bit.ly/47EDcz1
How Europeans can go beyond “limiting unpredictability” and respond to the MAGA doctrine
European leaders must draw up their alternative to the MAGA doctrine and drive deeper integration in the EU…
bit.ly
November 14, 2025 at 8:14 AM
This was clearly my favourite read of the week.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
As Trump and Takaichi move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance, writes @ellipohlkamp.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
Pacific drift: Why Europe needs a Japan strategy for the Takaichi-Trump era
Donald Trump has already met Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo. As the two move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance…
bit.ly
November 11, 2025 at 11:09 AM
As Trump and Takaichi move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance, writes @ellipohlkamp.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
Empires will come and go, mountains will become dust, great cities will rise from ruins… but British voters will always want Scandinavian public services for American tax rates.
Hiking tax is much more than merely the breach of a manifesto commitment. It is the death of the idea at the heart of Starmer’s project: that Labour would leave its comfort zone and govern by reform and growth, not tax and spend.
economist.com/britain/2025...
economist.com/britain/2025...
November 11, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Empires will come and go, mountains will become dust, great cities will rise from ruins… but British voters will always want Scandinavian public services for American tax rates.
Special relationship latest
NEWS: The UK is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
edition.cnn.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Special relationship latest
An irony of our time is that Enoch Powell basically thought this too. Today's Britain seems to be gleefully disinterring every ghastly artefact of Powellism apart from the one significant thing he got right: that it would be folly to leave Britain craven to American power.
John Le Carre was right about the British establishment and how the alumni of the best schools will sell out their own country for status and money and in particular a desperate desire for American attention
November 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
An irony of our time is that Enoch Powell basically thought this too. Today's Britain seems to be gleefully disinterring every ghastly artefact of Powellism apart from the one significant thing he got right: that it would be folly to leave Britain craven to American power.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"Research released this month by economists at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, King’s College London and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham underscored the economic hit from leaving the EU. Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6-8%"
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
Rachel Reeves signals she will break manifesto pledge with Budget tax rises
Chancellor hopes to win support from Labour MPs by lifting two-child benefit cap
on.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:08 AM
"Research released this month by economists at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, King’s College London and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham underscored the economic hit from leaving the EU. Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6-8%"
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Lethargy has become Europe’s strategic flaw, writes Nicu Popescu @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
From climate to defence, inertia could be the EU’s undoing
Europe’s strategic reports are filled with urgent calls for speed and agility. But amid fierce global competition, Europe is still lecturing while other major players deliver results…
bit.ly
November 10, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Lethargy has become Europe’s strategic flaw, writes Nicu Popescu @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
Spain is thriving now because 1898, and then 1975, left it as the big Western state with the fewest illusions about its place in the world. That's why, today, it's the European player with the most globally open and realistic foreign policy.
From the Spanish point of view, this is very particular. Spain is not immune to the reactionary wave, but it’s interesting how the 2008 crisis is shaking the west much like the disaster of 1898 did to Spain:
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Spain is thriving now because 1898, and then 1975, left it as the big Western state with the fewest illusions about its place in the world. That's why, today, it's the European player with the most globally open and realistic foreign policy.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Ah, the “teething problems of young democracies” narrative. How well I remember it from PiS’s first term…
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
I fear we are seeing in the UK what has become abundantly clear in the US: for all their power and privilege, elites and institutions are absolute cowards in the face of right-wing authoritarianism. Weak, weak, weak, as Tony Blair once said
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Ah, the “teething problems of young democracies” narrative. How well I remember it from PiS’s first term…
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
I fear we are seeing in the UK what has become abundantly clear in the US: for all their power and privilege, elites and institutions are absolute cowards in the face of right-wing authoritarianism. Weak, weak, weak, as Tony Blair once said
November 10, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the West"
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
November 7, 2025 at 2:57 PM
"Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the West"
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...