Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.bsky.social
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 [email protected] | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 [email protected] | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
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Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
Which data points are the most useful to understand US-EU relations in the trade, investment and financial fields—and what do these data tell us about the impact of Trumponomics 2.0 on Europe? Here's a selection of 12 charts from my new @ecfr.eu policy brief 👇 [🧵 Thread]
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
It would be lovely to see you!
🫖Join us for tea in Berlin on 2 December to discuss how Europeans can sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics together with @agathedemarais.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social.
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 2:32 PM
It would be lovely to see you!
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
[provisions of the U.S.-Russia plan are alarming, they also present an opportunity for Europeans to potentially block it: If the 🇪🇺seizes Russia’s central bank assets before Washington does, the bloc may be able to significantly curb Trump’s interest in what is a bad & dangerous deal for both 🇺🇦 & 🇪🇺]
November 25, 2025 at 4:35 PM
[provisions of the U.S.-Russia plan are alarming, they also present an opportunity for Europeans to potentially block it: If the 🇪🇺seizes Russia’s central bank assets before Washington does, the bloc may be able to significantly curb Trump’s interest in what is a bad & dangerous deal for both 🇺🇦 & 🇪🇺]
African countries may need to prioritise electrification to boost growth
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
November 25, 2025 at 4:02 PM
African countries may need to prioritise electrification to boost growth
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
On Russia’s frozen assets, Europeans have a clear choice: use their biggest leverage to back Ukraine and shape the U.S.–Russia plan, or let Washington seize the money for the benefit of both the U.S. and Russia, argues @agathedemarais.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:35 AM
On Russia’s frozen assets, Europeans have a clear choice: use their biggest leverage to back Ukraine and shape the U.S.–Russia plan, or let Washington seize the money for the benefit of both the U.S. and Russia, argues @agathedemarais.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
The administration stayed home from Halifax and forced the US military to do so as well. This isn’t an aberration: Also over the weekend, the administration boycotted the G20 in S Africa. How does the Trump team expect to win any diplomatic victories when it’s not even on the field? wapo.st/4oZH3wz
Opinion | America has become a rogue nation. U.S. allies are looking elsewhere.
Europeans and Canadians are talking about making their own security arrangements.
wapo.st
November 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The administration stayed home from Halifax and forced the US military to do so as well. This isn’t an aberration: Also over the weekend, the administration boycotted the G20 in S Africa. How does the Trump team expect to win any diplomatic victories when it’s not even on the field? wapo.st/4oZH3wz
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Trump’s “peace plan” envisions the US taking over Russia’s hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen assets! THAT may be motivation in demanding it be approved in days—to prevent Europe from seizing the assets!
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Trump’s “peace plan” envisions the US taking over Russia’s hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen assets! THAT may be motivation in demanding it be approved in days—to prevent Europe from seizing the assets!
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
🫖Join us for tea in Berlin on 2 December to discuss how Europeans can sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics together with @agathedemarais.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social.
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 11:15 AM
🫖Join us for tea in Berlin on 2 December to discuss how Europeans can sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics together with @agathedemarais.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social.
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Must read FT piece today on neutral Ireland, the soft underbelly of European defence
By @judewebber.bsky.social and @helenwarrell.bsky.social
By @judewebber.bsky.social and @helenwarrell.bsky.social
How Ireland became the weak spot in Europe’s defences
With few ships and limited intelligence-sharing, some say the country cannot hope to protect itself or its infrastructure
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Must read FT piece today on neutral Ireland, the soft underbelly of European defence
By @judewebber.bsky.social and @helenwarrell.bsky.social
By @judewebber.bsky.social and @helenwarrell.bsky.social
US economy is going through AI boom-fuelled productivity spurt
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
November 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
US economy is going through AI boom-fuelled productivity spurt
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Beste optie voor Europa om Trumps onzalige vredesplan voor #Oekraïne onderuit te halen: de Russische miljarden inpikken
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Beste optie voor Europa om Trumps onzalige vredesplan voor #Oekraïne onderuit te halen: de Russische miljarden inpikken
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
November 25, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
The fate of the U.S.-Russia plan hinges on the EU’s ability to swiftly seize Russia’s frozen assets, writes columnist @agathedemarais.bsky.social.
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:30 AM
The fate of the U.S.-Russia plan hinges on the EU’s ability to swiftly seize Russia’s frozen assets, writes columnist @agathedemarais.bsky.social.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Trump ne fait confiance qu’à un petit cercle de conseillers, issu comme lui du monde des affaires. Poutine aussi. La négation de l’expertise est la marque de notre époque, pas forcément la garantie du succès. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...
Sur l’Ukraine, le climat ou la santé, Donald Trump écarte l’expertise
« La paix ne sera pas construite par des diplomates ou des politiciens en échec, vivant dans un pays imaginaire », a tweeté le vice-président Vance pour expliquer la mise à l’écart des professionnels,...
www.radiofrance.fr
November 25, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Trump ne fait confiance qu’à un petit cercle de conseillers, issu comme lui du monde des affaires. Poutine aussi. La négation de l’expertise est la marque de notre époque, pas forcément la garantie du succès. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
As I report in this morning’s Europe Express, many EU leaders made @agathedemarais.bsky.social’s point forcefully at an emergency summit yesterday… but Belgium is still refusing to lift its veto on the frozen assets loan plan
on.ft.com/3XOnviR
on.ft.com/3XOnviR
November 25, 2025 at 8:28 AM
As I report in this morning’s Europe Express, many EU leaders made @agathedemarais.bsky.social’s point forcefully at an emergency summit yesterday… but Belgium is still refusing to lift its veto on the frozen assets loan plan
on.ft.com/3XOnviR
on.ft.com/3XOnviR
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Nicolas Guillou, French ICC judge sanctioned by the US: 'You are effectively blacklisted by much of the world's banking system'
Six judges and three prosecutors at the International Criminal Court have been sanctioned by the Trump administration. In an interview with Le Monde, Guillou discusses the impact of these measures on ...
www.lemonde.fr
November 24, 2025 at 8:13 PM
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:40 PM
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:40 PM
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
US-EU trade talks off to a good start I see.
Lutnick on the EU: "Another example -- they rule out diesel gas and you gotta have batteries here by 2035. But Europe doesn't make batteries! Only certain countries make batteries and Europe is not one of them. They gotta think better about themselves ... come on! Think correctly."
November 24, 2025 at 1:22 PM
US-EU trade talks off to a good start I see.
Latest wave of US sanctions appear to have pushed China to curb imports of seaborne Russian oil
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
November 24, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Latest wave of US sanctions appear to have pushed China to curb imports of seaborne Russian oil
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
NEW: Ursula von der Leyen says African countries should benefit from resource extraction — but Brussels has yet to deliver on that promise.
www.politico.eu/article/in-t...
www.politico.eu/article/in-t...
In the new scramble for Africa’s resources, Europe tries to right old wrongs
Ursula von der Leyen says African countries should benefit from resource extraction — but Brussels has yet to deliver on that promise.
www.politico.eu
November 24, 2025 at 10:09 AM
NEW: Ursula von der Leyen says African countries should benefit from resource extraction — but Brussels has yet to deliver on that promise.
www.politico.eu/article/in-t...
www.politico.eu/article/in-t...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
November 21, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
The Commission looks set to push binding tech-transfer rules on Chinese FDI in strategic sector.
At this rate, the upcoming December package on the Industry Accelerator Act and the automotive package could end up being the most consequential EU industrial policy move in years.
on.ft.com/49He4Jr
At this rate, the upcoming December package on the Industry Accelerator Act and the automotive package could end up being the most consequential EU industrial policy move in years.
on.ft.com/49He4Jr
EU to tighten investment rules to stand up to China
Commission wants greater benefits for local workers and technology transfers when foreign companies set up in bloc
on.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM
The Commission looks set to push binding tech-transfer rules on Chinese FDI in strategic sector.
At this rate, the upcoming December package on the Industry Accelerator Act and the automotive package could end up being the most consequential EU industrial policy move in years.
on.ft.com/49He4Jr
At this rate, the upcoming December package on the Industry Accelerator Act and the automotive package could end up being the most consequential EU industrial policy move in years.
on.ft.com/49He4Jr
Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
November 24, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
From the US-Russia plan for Ukraine - US firms would get US$100bn in cash from Russia's frozen central bank reserves to invest in Ukraine's reconstruction, with the US (government) ultimately receiving 50% of the profits (US claims over Russia's frozen reserves amount to only US$5bn)
November 21, 2025 at 11:43 AM
From the US-Russia plan for Ukraine - US firms would get US$100bn in cash from Russia's frozen central bank reserves to invest in Ukraine's reconstruction, with the US (government) ultimately receiving 50% of the profits (US claims over Russia's frozen reserves amount to only US$5bn)