Gesine Weber
@gesineweber.bsky.social
European security & defence, global order, EU in US-China competition.
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Reposted by Gesine Weber
🥹
White smoke from Berlin: the coalition has agreed to tie new car purchase incentives to European preference rules - and work to align them across the EU.
A very smart move as @sandertordoir.bsky.social, @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and I have argued here:
www.delorscentre.eu/fileadmin/2_...
A very smart move as @sandertordoir.bsky.social, @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and I have argued here:
www.delorscentre.eu/fileadmin/2_...
November 28, 2025 at 10:20 AM
🥹
French President Macron will travel to Beijing next week (3-5 Dec), but apparently without an EU leader.
Good & concise overview on the agenda:
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Good & concise overview on the agenda:
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Trade, tech, Ukraine: What to know about Macron's trip to China
French President Emmanuel Macron is set to land in China on 3 December, with Paris hoping its “strategic dialogue” will help advance key priorities for both the EU and Ukraine.
www.euronews.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:25 AM
French President Macron will travel to Beijing next week (3-5 Dec), but apparently without an EU leader.
Good & concise overview on the agenda:
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Good & concise overview on the agenda:
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Needless to say that I like the topic and angle of this policy brief, but I think the author mentions one very important aspect of grand strategy: the sense of purpose. It's here where Europe/ the EU needs to become much better: telling citizens *why* things matter/ need to be done.
❗New CSDS Policy Brief❗
"European Sovereignty or Decline? Options for European Union Grand Strategy", by Giovanni Grevi.
Read
csds.vub.be/publication/...
"European Sovereignty or Decline? Options for European Union Grand Strategy", by Giovanni Grevi.
Read
csds.vub.be/publication/...
November 27, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Needless to say that I like the topic and angle of this policy brief, but I think the author mentions one very important aspect of grand strategy: the sense of purpose. It's here where Europe/ the EU needs to become much better: telling citizens *why* things matter/ need to be done.
China has released its new white paper on arms control today - the first comprehensive document on this topic in 20 years.
Chinese: www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674...
English: www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
Analysis forthcoming...
Chinese: www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674...
English: www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
Analysis forthcoming...
www.fmprc.gov.cn
November 27, 2025 at 9:40 AM
China has released its new white paper on arms control today - the first comprehensive document on this topic in 20 years.
Chinese: www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674...
English: www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
Analysis forthcoming...
Chinese: www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674...
English: www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
Analysis forthcoming...
Reposted by Gesine Weber
I hear Keir Starmer is to give a big China speech Monday.
Understand he'll talk tough, but my guess is he'll use that to announce the Chinese embassy green light and his visit to China reportedly planned for January,
Understand he'll talk tough, but my guess is he'll use that to announce the Chinese embassy green light and his visit to China reportedly planned for January,
November 27, 2025 at 8:53 AM
I hear Keir Starmer is to give a big China speech Monday.
Understand he'll talk tough, but my guess is he'll use that to announce the Chinese embassy green light and his visit to China reportedly planned for January,
Understand he'll talk tough, but my guess is he'll use that to announce the Chinese embassy green light and his visit to China reportedly planned for January,
Or maybe: Trump totally playing on the fact that his unpredictability and pure power politics approach might be a powerful deterrent for Russia to breach a deal that he brokered, and hence giving him a big foreign policy victory.
What folks need to realize about "peace talks" is that this is all theater for Washington. Ukraine knows that Russia has no intention of stopping the war, and the Russians know the Ukrainians know that. So this is just all a performance for Trump, hoping he blames the other for the lack of peace.
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Or maybe: Trump totally playing on the fact that his unpredictability and pure power politics approach might be a powerful deterrent for Russia to breach a deal that he brokered, and hence giving him a big foreign policy victory.
Sober but accurate.
'There is no peace process. This is not negotiations over peace: it is the transmission of surrender demands from Russia with the active facilitation of the United States.'
Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Trump pressures Ukraine to accept peace deal: Early analysis from Chatham House experts
Chatham House analysts give their initial analysis after Zelenskyy was pressured by Trump to accept a White House plan to end the war with Russia.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 26, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Sober but accurate.
The Brief on the implications of the G20 summit, with a perspective on Europe from yours truly:
warontherocks.com/2025/11/g20-...
warontherocks.com/2025/11/g20-...
G20 Summit Outcomes: Multilateralism Survives
Leaders from around the world met in South Africa on Nov. 22–23 for the Group of 20 summit — the first time an African country has hosted the event. Most
warontherocks.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:29 AM
The Brief on the implications of the G20 summit, with a perspective on Europe from yours truly:
warontherocks.com/2025/11/g20-...
warontherocks.com/2025/11/g20-...
Reposted by Gesine Weber
Want to hold a major academic conference in the humanities and social sciences? We offer up to £20k (and sometimes £25k) for a conference on any topic to be held between April 27/March 28. Apply by 29 Jan 2026.
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
British Academy Conferences funding for UK-based researchers
An exceptional opportunity for UK-based scholars to run a landmark event featuring leading-edge research as part of the British Academy’s events programme.
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk
November 26, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Want to hold a major academic conference in the humanities and social sciences? We offer up to £20k (and sometimes £25k) for a conference on any topic to be held between April 27/March 28. Apply by 29 Jan 2026.
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
@edrusi.bsky.social on the spot: “Ed Arnold from the RUSI think tank in London warned that, if U.S. security guarantees are not firmly pinned down, the coalition is “in a really dangerous position, in that you're deploying a force with a backstop that deep down you know is not credible.”
Europe’s leaders are trying to nail down their plans to back up Ukraine with multinational military force if the country manages to land a peace deal with Russia.
As potential deal looms, France and Britain map out boots-on-ground role in Ukraine
Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday announced a new joint task-force — with U.S. buy-in — aiming at “finalized security guarantees” if a peace deal lands.
www.politico.eu
November 25, 2025 at 8:48 PM
@edrusi.bsky.social on the spot: “Ed Arnold from the RUSI think tank in London warned that, if U.S. security guarantees are not firmly pinned down, the coalition is “in a really dangerous position, in that you're deploying a force with a backstop that deep down you know is not credible.”
Why not consider this in Geneva today:
How can the United States push for negotiations that work on the battlefield, make sense politically, and still hold up with allies?
A 15-Point Plan to Get to a Ukrainian-Russian Settlement
I do not know the origins of the Trump administration’s 28-point peace plan to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War, but I can safely say it has caused quite a
warontherocks.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Why not consider this in Geneva today:
Reposted by Gesine Weber
This is so important. People who study international relations love to fight over whether interests or values define relationships. It is both. An interest is something you define. And your values come into the equation. It is not either or.
What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.
November 25, 2025 at 9:38 AM
This is so important. People who study international relations love to fight over whether interests or values define relationships. It is both. An interest is something you define. And your values come into the equation. It is not either or.
Waiting for the far-right on both sides of the Atlantic to scream how much they hate liberal EU. Sorry not sorry.
BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.
🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.
This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.
This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
www.reuters.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Waiting for the far-right on both sides of the Atlantic to scream how much they hate liberal EU. Sorry not sorry.
You asked (or maybe not), I deliver: new piece on Geopolitical Europe is out!
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
Europe must not fall back in the alliance comfort trap as negotiations on Ukraine get a positive dynamic and US is constructive.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
Europe must not fall back in the alliance comfort trap as negotiations on Ukraine get a positive dynamic and US is constructive.
November 25, 2025 at 12:22 PM
You asked (or maybe not), I deliver: new piece on Geopolitical Europe is out!
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
Europe must not fall back in the alliance comfort trap as negotiations on Ukraine get a positive dynamic and US is constructive.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
Europe must not fall back in the alliance comfort trap as negotiations on Ukraine get a positive dynamic and US is constructive.
Now that I wrote this, I think I'll write a piece for my Substack on the "alliance comfort zone trap".... 🧐
Couldn't agree more.
The problem is: I absolutely see a scenario where Europeans, after an acceptable deal, go back into comfort zone and argue that alliances are part of US national interest and Europe is vital to US grand strategy.
This is very dangerous because Europe can't rely on US.
The problem is: I absolutely see a scenario where Europeans, after an acceptable deal, go back into comfort zone and argue that alliances are part of US national interest and Europe is vital to US grand strategy.
This is very dangerous because Europe can't rely on US.
Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
November 25, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Now that I wrote this, I think I'll write a piece for my Substack on the "alliance comfort zone trap".... 🧐
Couldn't agree more.
The problem is: I absolutely see a scenario where Europeans, after an acceptable deal, go back into comfort zone and argue that alliances are part of US national interest and Europe is vital to US grand strategy.
This is very dangerous because Europe can't rely on US.
The problem is: I absolutely see a scenario where Europeans, after an acceptable deal, go back into comfort zone and argue that alliances are part of US national interest and Europe is vital to US grand strategy.
This is very dangerous because Europe can't rely on US.
Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
The Trump cycle on Russia-Ukraine. Some pro-Russian plan emerges. Instant commentariat renew their "Trump as Russian plant" stories. Plan is amended under EU (and US) pressure. Putin rejects it. Instant commentariat is puzzled. Rinse and repeat. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
November 25, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Couldn't agree more.
The problem is: I absolutely see a scenario where Europeans, after an acceptable deal, go back into comfort zone and argue that alliances are part of US national interest and Europe is vital to US grand strategy.
This is very dangerous because Europe can't rely on US.
The problem is: I absolutely see a scenario where Europeans, after an acceptable deal, go back into comfort zone and argue that alliances are part of US national interest and Europe is vital to US grand strategy.
This is very dangerous because Europe can't rely on US.
One of my absolute favourite publication on German foreign policy of the year, the Berlin Pulse, is out. Congrats @koerber-ip.bsky.social, Julia Ganter & team for getting this out!
Baseline: yes to more Europe, no trust in US, China no major threat
My top 3:
koerber-stiftung.de/projekte/the...
Baseline: yes to more Europe, no trust in US, China no major threat
My top 3:
koerber-stiftung.de/projekte/the...
The Berlin Pulse
The Berlin Pulse ist unsere außenpolitische Jahrespublikation. Sie stellt Beiträge hochrangiger internationaler Autorinnen und Autoren einer aktuellen Meinungsumfrage zu den außenpolitischen Positione...
koerber-stiftung.de
November 25, 2025 at 8:48 AM
One of my absolute favourite publication on German foreign policy of the year, the Berlin Pulse, is out. Congrats @koerber-ip.bsky.social, Julia Ganter & team for getting this out!
Baseline: yes to more Europe, no trust in US, China no major threat
My top 3:
koerber-stiftung.de/projekte/the...
Baseline: yes to more Europe, no trust in US, China no major threat
My top 3:
koerber-stiftung.de/projekte/the...
I am also *very* confused by reports about this guarantee/ the article 5 reference.
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
What exactly is a guarantee which 'mirrors' Article 5/an Article 5 style guarantee?
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
November 24, 2025 at 8:06 PM
I am also *very* confused by reports about this guarantee/ the article 5 reference.
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
Well, let's see when we get there. I'm not a lawyer, but talking to people who are, I think it will be extremely challenging for MLP's appeal in court to succeed. If she can't run, French politics might look *very* different a year from now.
www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...
www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...
Marine Le Pen affirme qu’elle « ne renonce absolument pas » à l’élection présidentielle de 2027
Dans un entretien à « Ouest-France » publié dimanche, la dirigeante d’extrême droite nie tout « renoncement », après des déclarations sur son calendrier judiciaire qui ont pu être interprétées comme u...
www.lemonde.fr
November 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Well, let's see when we get there. I'm not a lawyer, but talking to people who are, I think it will be extremely challenging for MLP's appeal in court to succeed. If she can't run, French politics might look *very* different a year from now.
www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...
www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...
This headline is quite painful - but perhaps telling. Survival for Ukraine is now not only on the battlefield against Russia, it's also dealing with Trump's volatility and US power politics & coercion towards partners.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Ukraine survives another crisis with Donald Trump
A deal in Geneva salvages relations with America. It might not last
www.economist.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:24 AM
This headline is quite painful - but perhaps telling. Survival for Ukraine is now not only on the battlefield against Russia, it's also dealing with Trump's volatility and US power politics & coercion towards partners.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Currently working on my holiday reading list for Geopolitical Europe - and I need more books on strategy, Europe, multipolarity etc written by women and non-Western scholars. If you have recommendations, drop them in the comments or my pms!
November 24, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Currently working on my holiday reading list for Geopolitical Europe - and I need more books on strategy, Europe, multipolarity etc written by women and non-Western scholars. If you have recommendations, drop them in the comments or my pms!
"Mr. Merz, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Keir Starmer had assured Mr. Zelensky during a call on Friday of “their continued and full support on the path to a lasting and just peace."
E3 in action (or rather words?). A bit of déjà vu, though.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/w...
E3 in action (or rather words?). A bit of déjà vu, though.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/w...
Europe Scrambles Over U.S. Plan to End Ukraine War Mostly on Russia’s Terms
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:22 PM
"Mr. Merz, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Keir Starmer had assured Mr. Zelensky during a call on Friday of “their continued and full support on the path to a lasting and just peace."
E3 in action (or rather words?). A bit of déjà vu, though.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/w...
E3 in action (or rather words?). A bit of déjà vu, though.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/w...
It is frustrating that this is more about post-Brexit politics than about European defence.
Talks between the European Commission and the UK on taking part in the bloc's €150 billion Security Action for Europe loans-for-weapons plan failed to meet today's deadline, three diplomats told POLITICO.
No deal on UK access to EU’s defense spending plan
The Commission wanted to wrap talks with the U.K. on taking part in the SAFE program by the end of the week, but that deadline is slipping.
www.politico.eu
November 21, 2025 at 2:03 PM
It is frustrating that this is more about post-Brexit politics than about European defence.
I *really* like SIRIUS and really appreciate their editorial focus and analysis - but I don't think that it's acceptable that 10 out of 10 articles/ analyses published in a journal in 2025 are written by men. Yes, all of them are qualified, but diversity is also an editorial choice.
📢 SIRIUS, Band 9, Heft 1–2, ist erschienen!
Wir freuen uns, das erste Doppelheft von SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen zum übergreifenden Themenschwerpunkt „Sicherheit ohne USA?” zu präsentieren.
📖 Jetzt lesen: www.degruyterbrill.com/journal/key/...
#OpenAccess
Wir freuen uns, das erste Doppelheft von SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen zum übergreifenden Themenschwerpunkt „Sicherheit ohne USA?” zu präsentieren.
📖 Jetzt lesen: www.degruyterbrill.com/journal/key/...
#OpenAccess
November 21, 2025 at 12:37 PM
I *really* like SIRIUS and really appreciate their editorial focus and analysis - but I don't think that it's acceptable that 10 out of 10 articles/ analyses published in a journal in 2025 are written by men. Yes, all of them are qualified, but diversity is also an editorial choice.