Ed Arnold
@edrusi.bsky.social
European Security at RUSI - NATO, JEF, Arctic and High North security.
All views my own
All views my own
Reposted by Ed Arnold
@edrusi.bsky.social on the spot: “Ed Arnold from the RUSI think tank in London warned that, if U.S. security guarantees are not firmly pinned down, the coalition is “in a really dangerous position, in that you're deploying a force with a backstop that deep down you know is not credible.”
Europe’s leaders are trying to nail down their plans to back up Ukraine with multinational military force if the country manages to land a peace deal with Russia.
As potential deal looms, France and Britain map out boots-on-ground role in Ukraine
Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday announced a new joint task-force — with U.S. buy-in — aiming at “finalized security guarantees” if a peace deal lands.
www.politico.eu
November 25, 2025 at 8:48 PM
@edrusi.bsky.social on the spot: “Ed Arnold from the RUSI think tank in London warned that, if U.S. security guarantees are not firmly pinned down, the coalition is “in a really dangerous position, in that you're deploying a force with a backstop that deep down you know is not credible.”
Reposted by Ed Arnold
I am also *very* confused by reports about this guarantee/ the article 5 reference.
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
What exactly is a guarantee which 'mirrors' Article 5/an Article 5 style guarantee?
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
November 24, 2025 at 8:06 PM
I am also *very* confused by reports about this guarantee/ the article 5 reference.
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?
Reposted by Ed Arnold
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
November 23, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
What exactly is a guarantee which 'mirrors' Article 5/an Article 5 style guarantee?
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
November 24, 2025 at 5:35 PM
What exactly is a guarantee which 'mirrors' Article 5/an Article 5 style guarantee?
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Five things we learned from the UK Covid-19 Inquiry report on Module II
What does the report tell us about governance and decision making by ministers and the civil service during the pandemic?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/covi...
What does the report tell us about governance and decision making by ministers and the civil service during the pandemic?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/covi...
Five things we learned from the UK Covid-19 Inquiry report on Module II | Institute for Government
What does the report tell us about governance and decision making by ministers and the civil service during the pandemic?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 24, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Five things we learned from the UK Covid-19 Inquiry report on Module II
What does the report tell us about governance and decision making by ministers and the civil service during the pandemic?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/covi...
What does the report tell us about governance and decision making by ministers and the civil service during the pandemic?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/covi...
Can't wait for all the people at the 2024 NATO Washington Summit popping champagne over the 'irreversible path to NATO' line to realise that communiques do not equal policy
Compare the vagueness of the clause "it is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries" with the very specific limits on Ukrainian army numbers and "Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO."
November 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Can't wait for all the people at the 2024 NATO Washington Summit popping champagne over the 'irreversible path to NATO' line to realise that communiques do not equal policy
Affirmation. That will do
⚡️ European leaders push back on surprise Ukraine peace deal, affirm support for Kyiv.
European leaders pushed back on Nov. 21 against parts of a new and controversial U.S. plan for peace in Ukraine.
European leaders pushed back on Nov. 21 against parts of a new and controversial U.S. plan for peace in Ukraine.
European leaders push back on surprise Ukraine peace deal, affirm support for Kyiv
European leaders pushed back on Nov. 21 against parts of a new and controversial U.S. plan for peace in Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Affirmation. That will do
Reposted by Ed Arnold
I contributed to this pessimistic assessment & gave evidence (with @edrusi.bsky.social) to the Defence Select Committee's inquiry on the UK's contribution to European security so shouldn't be surprised, but the Committee's report is a dire read.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
November 20, 2025 at 4:08 PM
I contributed to this pessimistic assessment & gave evidence (with @edrusi.bsky.social) to the Defence Select Committee's inquiry on the UK's contribution to European security so shouldn't be surprised, but the Committee's report is a dire read.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
The UK is too dependent on the United States for its defense and has not adequately invested in a back-up plan should America pull away from Europe, a damning report by a cross-party group of lawmakers has warned.
Britain’s defenses too reliant on Trump’s America, MPs warn
The cross-party Defence Committee says Europe will be “left vulnerable” if the U.S. backs away.
www.politico.eu
November 19, 2025 at 11:34 AM
The UK is too dependent on the United States for its defense and has not adequately invested in a back-up plan should America pull away from Europe, a damning report by a cross-party group of lawmakers has warned.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Serious complications await Ukraine's plan to build a massive new air force comprising large numbers of French and Swedish warplanes.
Ukraine’s warplane plans face big difficulties
Running fleets of incompatible aircraft creates problems with logistics and pilot training, and Kyiv also faces cash issues.
www.politico.eu
November 18, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Serious complications await Ukraine's plan to build a massive new air force comprising large numbers of French and Swedish warplanes.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
A wounded 🇺🇦 soldier’s journey to medical help now often takes as long as it did in the bleakest days of World War I. This isn’t just the result of drones or other modern weapons. Russian drone operators ignore the legal protections meant for medics. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/m...
A Harrowing Escape From the Drone-Infested Hellscape of Ukraine’s Front Lines
www.nytimes.com
November 16, 2025 at 4:03 PM
A wounded 🇺🇦 soldier’s journey to medical help now often takes as long as it did in the bleakest days of World War I. This isn’t just the result of drones or other modern weapons. Russian drone operators ignore the legal protections meant for medics. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/m...
Reposted by Ed Arnold
China is helping governments not only combat crime, but also control their citizens and stay in power—and that is proving stunningly popular
China’s creepiest export surge
Countries are queuing to buy the tools and techniques of the CCP’s security state
econ.st
November 14, 2025 at 4:20 AM
China is helping governments not only combat crime, but also control their citizens and stay in power—and that is proving stunningly popular
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Of all the British traditions I think the one I love most is that every couple of years we physically torture a Radio 2 DJ in order to raise funds for children in need. www.bbc.co.uk/live/cy7exkn...
Live Updates - Follow Sara Cox's Great Northern Marathon Challenge for Radio 2 in aid of Children in Need
Can BBC Radio 2's Sara Cox get Pudsey Bear to Pudsey in Yorkshire - on foot - by this afternoon, while raising money for Children in Need?
www.bbc.co.uk
November 14, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Of all the British traditions I think the one I love most is that every couple of years we physically torture a Radio 2 DJ in order to raise funds for children in need. www.bbc.co.uk/live/cy7exkn...
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Hundreds of think tank reports and political speeches say Europe must invest in its own production and refining of rare earths to break stranglehold by you know who. Then this happens. 👀
Sigh.
Sigh.
How depressing is this?
Europe’s top processor of rare earths materials said Wednesday it had forged new partnerships to strengthen supply chains in the United States, deals that come as Europe lags in the race to break China’s chokehold on rare earths
Europe’s top processor of rare earths materials said Wednesday it had forged new partnerships to strengthen supply chains in the United States, deals that come as Europe lags in the race to break China’s chokehold on rare earths
Solvay of Belgium Creates Rare Earths Deals With U.S.
The contracts are the latest sign of how Europe is lagging the United States in the race to break China’s chokehold on rare earths.
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Hundreds of think tank reports and political speeches say Europe must invest in its own production and refining of rare earths to break stranglehold by you know who. Then this happens. 👀
Sigh.
Sigh.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Meanwhile, if Finland raises the age limit for reservists to 65, the total reserve will cross 1 million.
Yes it would be a lot of older guys but they can learn to fly a drone 🙃
yle.fi/a/74-20161729
Yes it would be a lot of older guys but they can learn to fly a drone 🙃
yle.fi/a/74-20161729
Army fatigues until 65? Finland wants to extend reservist age limit
This change would particularly impact the rank-and-file who now age out of the reserves at 50.
yle.fi
November 13, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Meanwhile, if Finland raises the age limit for reservists to 65, the total reserve will cross 1 million.
Yes it would be a lot of older guys but they can learn to fly a drone 🙃
yle.fi/a/74-20161729
Yes it would be a lot of older guys but they can learn to fly a drone 🙃
yle.fi/a/74-20161729
Reposted by Ed Arnold
A strong new signal from Merz: “We have decided within the government that everywhere it’s possible we’ll replace components, for example in the 5G network, with components we have produced ourselves. And we won’t allow any components from China in the 6G network.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Germany to Ban Huawei From Future 6G Network in Sovereignty Push
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Chinese suppliers such as Huawei Technologies Co. will be excluded from the country’s future telecommunication networks on security grounds as he pushes for more ...
www.bloomberg.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:53 PM
A strong new signal from Merz: “We have decided within the government that everywhere it’s possible we’ll replace components, for example in the 5G network, with components we have produced ourselves. And we won’t allow any components from China in the 6G network.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Struck by BBC DG & cabinet secretary parallels
Both high scrutiny
Both two jobs bolted together (DG editor-in-chief & CEO, cab sec main adviser to PM & head of the civil service)
Both kept together because a perceived need for one top person
Different parts of both jobs need v different skills
Both high scrutiny
Both two jobs bolted together (DG editor-in-chief & CEO, cab sec main adviser to PM & head of the civil service)
Both kept together because a perceived need for one top person
Different parts of both jobs need v different skills
Running the [insert]* has become an impossible job on.ft.com/4oE2cwk
*BBC
*ONS
*British Library
*country
*BBC
*ONS
*British Library
*country
Running the BBC has become an impossible job
The broadcaster should rethink the role of director-general and reclaim editorial independence
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Struck by BBC DG & cabinet secretary parallels
Both high scrutiny
Both two jobs bolted together (DG editor-in-chief & CEO, cab sec main adviser to PM & head of the civil service)
Both kept together because a perceived need for one top person
Different parts of both jobs need v different skills
Both high scrutiny
Both two jobs bolted together (DG editor-in-chief & CEO, cab sec main adviser to PM & head of the civil service)
Both kept together because a perceived need for one top person
Different parts of both jobs need v different skills
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Pressure is mounting on Belgium to lift its reservations and endorse the €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine, which the vast majority of countries favour.
But technical talks between Belgium and the European Commission are stalled.
Story with @shonamurray.bsky.social.
But technical talks between Belgium and the European Commission are stalled.
Story with @shonamurray.bsky.social.
Pressure mounts on Belgium to back reparations loan for Ukraine
Support for a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine is intensifying, but Belgium is holding its ground. Talks with the European Commission have stalled and failed to deliver any progress.
www.euronews.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Pressure is mounting on Belgium to lift its reservations and endorse the €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine, which the vast majority of countries favour.
But technical talks between Belgium and the European Commission are stalled.
Story with @shonamurray.bsky.social.
But technical talks between Belgium and the European Commission are stalled.
Story with @shonamurray.bsky.social.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Two-thirds of women in the British armed forces say they’ve experienced some form of “sexualized behavior” in the past year, a new survey found.
Sexual harassment rife in UK armed forces, survey finds
The country’s armed forces have long struggled to grapple with reports of inappropriate behavior.
www.politico.eu
November 13, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Two-thirds of women in the British armed forces say they’ve experienced some form of “sexualized behavior” in the past year, a new survey found.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to tackle corruption as Kyiv reels from a major scandal over kickbacks.
Merz tells Zelenskyy: Get tough on corruption
German government officials worry that news of corruption in Ukraine will undermine public support for the embattled country.
www.politico.eu
November 13, 2025 at 3:55 PM
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to tackle corruption as Kyiv reels from a major scandal over kickbacks.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
COMMENTARY: Ukraine faces a hazardous winter war — one that heroism and improvisation may not be enough to overcome.
But its fate won’t be entirely in its own hands, with much now resting on Western allies as Kyiv grapples with three huge challenges.
But its fate won’t be entirely in its own hands, with much now resting on Western allies as Kyiv grapples with three huge challenges.
Ukraine’s most perilous winter so far
The big question is whether the country will emerge in good enough shape to resist a bad peace deal being foisted on it.
www.politico.eu
November 13, 2025 at 8:25 AM
COMMENTARY: Ukraine faces a hazardous winter war — one that heroism and improvisation may not be enough to overcome.
But its fate won’t be entirely in its own hands, with much now resting on Western allies as Kyiv grapples with three huge challenges.
But its fate won’t be entirely in its own hands, with much now resting on Western allies as Kyiv grapples with three huge challenges.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Germany’s governing parties have agreed on a new compromise to revamp military service, after an earlier political deal collapsed last month.
Germany’s ruling parties strike new military-service deal
Conservatives and Social Democrats agree on a hybrid model mixing voluntary service with limited compulsory measures.
www.politico.eu
November 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Germany’s governing parties have agreed on a new compromise to revamp military service, after an earlier political deal collapsed last month.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
Reminder also that there is a clause in the German coalition agreement excluding cooperation by the coalition partners - SPD and CDU/CSU - with parties that are unconstitutional, undemocratic, and right-wing extremist "on all political levels". This would include the EU level.
It’s something we’ve witnessed for a while. In Germany, Weber likes to give the impression of a moderate conservative, also compared to others in his party, but in Brussels he then goes and cooperates with the far-right
November 13, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Reminder also that there is a clause in the German coalition agreement excluding cooperation by the coalition partners - SPD and CDU/CSU - with parties that are unconstitutional, undemocratic, and right-wing extremist "on all political levels". This would include the EU level.
Reposted by Ed Arnold
On a more serious note: British politics have been in crisis mode for ten years and this is a real problem whatever your politics. It undermines trust in government and democracy, fuels populism, and makes the UK an unstable partner at a time when the geopolitical situation is very dangerous.
The important story behind this story is that someone in Downing Street is having a breakdown:
Starmer allies issue warning to PM’s rivals as fears grow over leadership challenge
No 10 said to be in ‘full bunker mode’ over fears of attempt to oust him after budget or May local elections
www.theguardian.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:00 AM
On a more serious note: British politics have been in crisis mode for ten years and this is a real problem whatever your politics. It undermines trust in government and democracy, fuels populism, and makes the UK an unstable partner at a time when the geopolitical situation is very dangerous.