Finbarr Bermingham
@fbermingham.bsky.social
Senior Correspondent for Europe at the South China Morning Post.
Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics.
All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.
Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics.
All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.
Pinned
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, EU scrambles for its dictionary
The EU is preparing to unveil a new doctrine on economic security, but it’s a concept that officials and experts say has no clear definition.
www.scmp.com
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
I doubt she'll be two doveish on Ukraine. Thought this bit was more interesting
"Connecting Ukraine’s fight for self-determination against Russian imperialism with the Palestinian, Chamorro, and Puerto Rican fight for the same—an admonition against hypocrisy when it comes to resisting imperialism."
"Connecting Ukraine’s fight for self-determination against Russian imperialism with the Palestinian, Chamorro, and Puerto Rican fight for the same—an admonition against hypocrisy when it comes to resisting imperialism."
February 10, 2026 at 9:48 PM
I doubt she'll be two doveish on Ukraine. Thought this bit was more interesting
"Connecting Ukraine’s fight for self-determination against Russian imperialism with the Palestinian, Chamorro, and Puerto Rican fight for the same—an admonition against hypocrisy when it comes to resisting imperialism."
"Connecting Ukraine’s fight for self-determination against Russian imperialism with the Palestinian, Chamorro, and Puerto Rican fight for the same—an admonition against hypocrisy when it comes to resisting imperialism."
Van Jackson
"The world is broken, US is a direct threat to Europe, not patron or security guarantor. Even European elites seem to grasp that now. Nothing would provide them sweeter relief than restoring predictability... even Euro-hawks are likely to find AOC quite appealing"
"The world is broken, US is a direct threat to Europe, not patron or security guarantor. Even European elites seem to grasp that now. Nothing would provide them sweeter relief than restoring predictability... even Euro-hawks are likely to find AOC quite appealing"
February 10, 2026 at 9:12 PM
Van Jackson
"The world is broken, US is a direct threat to Europe, not patron or security guarantor. Even European elites seem to grasp that now. Nothing would provide them sweeter relief than restoring predictability... even Euro-hawks are likely to find AOC quite appealing"
"The world is broken, US is a direct threat to Europe, not patron or security guarantor. Even European elites seem to grasp that now. Nothing would provide them sweeter relief than restoring predictability... even Euro-hawks are likely to find AOC quite appealing"
This will be a big draw in Munich this week
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez set to take the stage and lay out what her "progressive foreign policy" means in Europe.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez set to take the stage and lay out what her "progressive foreign policy" means in Europe.
Anticipating AOC’s Munich Security Conference Speech
What to look for from a left-populist counter to imperialism, fascism, white supremacy, and oligarchy.
open.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:11 PM
This will be a big draw in Munich this week
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez set to take the stage and lay out what her "progressive foreign policy" means in Europe.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez set to take the stage and lay out what her "progressive foreign policy" means in Europe.
Headlines from the frontlines of late-stage capitalism
February 10, 2026 at 2:51 PM
Headlines from the frontlines of late-stage capitalism
Budapest in demand from the great powers...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Secretary Rubio’s Travel to Germany, Slovakia and Hungary - United States Department of State
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Germany from February 13-15 to participate in the 62nd Munich Security Conference. Secretary Rubio will then travel to Bratislava, Slovakia and Budapest, ...
www.state.gov
February 10, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Budapest in demand from the great powers...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Finance Minister Roland Lescure suggested 30% tariff is a no-goer
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
EU ‘mega tariff’: French minister urges caution amid calls for 30% China duty
Finance minister distances himself from French government agency’s proposal for blanket EU tariffs on China to stop ‘destruction’ of local industry.
www.scmp.com
February 10, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Finance Minister Roland Lescure suggested 30% tariff is a no-goer
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
Full note here:
Germany’s “China Shock” Revisited
Over the past year, German political leaders, central bankers, business associations and unions have begun talking openly about the risks of a “China shock.” The rhetoric, however, has not been matched by decisive policy action.
rhg.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Full note here:
Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
February 10, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Not really a secret at this stage, I would say...
February 10, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Not really a secret at this stage, I would say...
Ah, I can see that Euronews already partnered with CGTN, including joint debates and material published by CGTN
www.euronews.com/search?query...
www.euronews.com/search?query...
search : euronews : the latest international news as video on demand
search | euronews : International and European news all available as video on demand
www.euronews.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Ah, I can see that Euronews already partnered with CGTN, including joint debates and material published by CGTN
www.euronews.com/search?query...
www.euronews.com/search?query...
Confirmation that Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi will be at the Munich Security Conference later this week - stopping off in (you guessed it) Hungary on the way.
February 10, 2026 at 12:07 PM
Confirmation that Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi will be at the Munich Security Conference later this week - stopping off in (you guessed it) Hungary on the way.
The far-right AfD is now invited to Munich Security Conference, reportedly as organisers are afraid of upsetting Trump
“Invitations were issued as we made an impression with contacts to the Americans,” said Heinrich Koch, one of 3 AfD MPs to be invited
“Invitations were issued as we made an impression with contacts to the Americans,” said Heinrich Koch, one of 3 AfD MPs to be invited
Banging at the gates
A weekly newsletter on German politics, with news and analysis on the new government. By NETTE NÖSTLINGER Send tips here | Subscribe for free | View in your browser BATTLE OVER TRUMP TIES IT’…
www.politico.eu
February 10, 2026 at 12:02 PM
The far-right AfD is now invited to Munich Security Conference, reportedly as organisers are afraid of upsetting Trump
“Invitations were issued as we made an impression with contacts to the Americans,” said Heinrich Koch, one of 3 AfD MPs to be invited
“Invitations were issued as we made an impression with contacts to the Americans,” said Heinrich Koch, one of 3 AfD MPs to be invited
At the same time, if I was a European EV maker I'd be looking at those sales and pricing numbers in China nervously - surely the export incentive is multiplied enormously
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
At the same time, if I was a European EV maker I'd be looking at those sales and pricing numbers in China nervously - surely the export incentive is multiplied enormously
Beijing and Chinese manufacturers now have a stronger need to keep the EU market open, precisely as Brussels is tightening trade defence tools
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Beijing and Chinese manufacturers now have a stronger need to keep the EU market open, precisely as Brussels is tightening trade defence tools
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
Interesting wrinkle here - Chinese EV makers are going to be looking hungrily to Europe this year
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
China’s turbocharged EV market hits a speed bump amid falling sales
After years at full throttle, China’s EV sector is slowing sharply, with sales sliding in January as tax breaks fade and costs rise.
www.scmp.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Interesting wrinkle here - Chinese EV makers are going to be looking hungrily to Europe this year
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
Let's see if this can be used as a model for more undertakings.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Let's see if this can be used as a model for more undertakings.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
In short: one highly conditional carve‑out.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
In short: one highly conditional carve‑out.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
Crucially, if VW Anhui breaches the undertaking or the Commission withdraws it, the full definitive countervailing duty snaps back automatically.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Crucially, if VW Anhui breaches the undertaking or the Commission withdraws it, the full definitive countervailing duty snaps back automatically.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
Interesting given how it was spun as a huge deal by Beijing a few weeks ago:
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Interesting given how it was spun as a huge deal by Beijing a few weeks ago:
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
On top of pricing, VW Anhui commits to significant BEV‑related investment projects in the EU – both finishing existing ones and starting new ones – with periodic reporting and consultation obligations on those investments.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
On top of pricing, VW Anhui commits to significant BEV‑related investment projects in the EU – both finishing existing ones and starting new ones – with periodic reporting and consultation obligations on those investments.
VW Anhui and SEAT also face heavy reporting: detailed export reports plus quarterly data on resales to first independent EU customers, allowing the Commission to check that all sales comply with the MIPs.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
VW Anhui and SEAT also face heavy reporting: detailed export reports plus quarterly data on resales to first independent EU customers, allowing the Commission to check that all sales comply with the MIPs.
Compliance is monitored transaction‑by‑transaction. Each export must be registered in a Commission system, which generates an alphanumerical code and QR code that customs can scan when the car is released into free circulation.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Compliance is monitored transaction‑by‑transaction. Each export must be registered in a Commission system, which generates an alphanumerical code and QR code that customs can scan when the car is released into free circulation.
The sales channel is locked down: exports to the EU have to go via specified channels, with SEAT as the sole related importer. SEAT must apply a uniform policy on resale prices and support payments, with full traceability for each vehicle, including fleet sales.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
The sales channel is locked down: exports to the EU have to go via specified channels, with SEAT as the sole related importer. SEAT must apply a uniform policy on resale prices and support payments, with full traceability for each vehicle, including fleet sales.