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Finbarr Bermingham

@fbermingham.bsky.social

8.2K followers 700 following 5.6K posts

Senior Correspondent for Europe at the South China Morning Post. Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics. All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 20d

NEW: Could the EU dust off its trade bazooka to take on China? Europe weighs its options

A serious discussion is underway in the commission about using the anti-coercion instrument against China - my report.

Could the EU dust off its trade bazooka to take on China?

Alarm bells have failed so the bloc is considering a weapon that it originally planned to fire at the US.

www.scmp.com

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 4h

Speaking at the White House alongside Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Trump criticised Spain’s conduct within NATO, suggesting that “maybe Spain should be thrown out” of the alliance, though he did not elaborate on specific reasons.

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 4h

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the NATO alliance should consider expelling Spain from the bloc and that his administration may impose additional sanctions on Russia.

Trump says Spain could be expelled from NATO, hints at more Russia sanctions

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the NATO alliance should consider expelling Spain from the bloc and that his administration may impose additional sanctions on Russia.

anewz.tv

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 8h

Via @gdp1985.bsky.social on X, here's the full roster of controls today.

Anyone wanna hazard a guess at what's missing?

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 8h

Good question!

܀𓂃 Kaori Fujisawa ‎𓈒𓏸𑁍 @layla1988.bsky.social · 9h

Today's announcements are numbered 55, 56 ,57, 58, 61 and 62.

What are 59 and 60?

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 20h

More news on the rare earth front - could damage EU efforts to build production

China has tightened curbs on rare earths to include items manufactured abroad

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 12h

Story: China’s rare earth clampdown deepens EU anxiety on industry and Ukraine support

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 12h

Report: China’s rare earth clampdown deepens EU anxiety on industry and Ukraine support

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

China’s rare earth clampdown deepens EU anxiety on industry and Ukraine support

Observers and business leaders suggest Europe should prepare for Beijing to ramp up this economic lever.

www.scmp.com

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 17h

Pretty hilarious that after years of very noisy public debate about the anti coercion instrument, this guy thinks it's a secret weapon...

The EU has a secret weapon to counter Trump’s economic bullying. It’s time to use it | Johnny Ryan

The anti-coercion instrument, or ‘trade bazooka’, is designed to shield against foreign pressure, says civil liberties campaigner Johnny Ryan

www.theguardian.com

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo

"von der Leyen, when she was here for the summit, she said, we are at an inflection point. And so we are at an inflection point. The trend in our trade and on these measures is not sustainable, and I'm afraid if the Chinese don't make progress we will have to act"

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo on rare earths

Things have "even worsened today only by the announcement of China that they are putting under export controls the technologies for producing rare earths"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo

"since 2017 whereas China's GDP has grown by 40% very impressively, by 40% from 2017 to 2024 our exports to China have gone down by 30% so something must be wrong."

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo

"since 2017 whereas China's GDP has grown by 40% very impressively, by 40% from 2017 to 2024 our exports to China have gone down by 30% so something must be wrong."

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo

"What we call overcapacity but the Chinese call involution... is causing an even worse trend in our trade balance. In the first 8 months of 2025 not only have imports from China grown substantially but exports are falling again"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo

"In 2022 the EU reached the Guinness Book of Records of trade deficits..."

It went down in 2023/4 but has grown in volume.

"In 2022 for every container the EU sent to China, China was sending 3.5. We think in 2025 it is four or more"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo says there is "a very constructive dialogue" with China on climate.

"We have our differences... we must admit this new nationally determined contribution of China to combat climate change... Is not nearly what is needed to achieve Paris climate objectives"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

When asking China to support an unconditional ceasefire...

"Now, they say, well, we understand different things for ceasefire, etc, so they are not again cooperating."

Says the EU "respects" China's red lines on Taiwan but Beijing doesn't respect Europe's red line on Ukraine

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo says China doesn't "grasp" how important Russia issue is

"We have evidence of material Chinese support for Russian military machine"

Says 80% of dual use goods flowing from China.

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo:

Chinese government "always says we're not rivals we're partners"

But 2019 designation is "even more relevant now" esp since Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"This has become one of the most negative things in our relationship with China"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo

The summit "should have been an occasion to take stock" of 50 years of relations

"Unfortunately we commemorated this 50 years without much progress"

We have "unfortunately seen not much progress since then"

"The news doesn't seem to be very good for the moment"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Toledo says the fact that the digital and trade dialogues didn't take place before EU China summit "suggests we saw no progress in the hundreds of trade and investment issues we had with China"

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

EU claims it has reached its €300bn target for global gateway spend ahead of time. Would love to see a breakdown of that. Seems surprising...

Team Europe reaches €300 billion target for Global Gateway investments ahead of time

Today at the opening of the Global Gateway Forum, President von der Leyen laid down her vision for strengthened partnerships in a radically changing global economy.

ec.europa.eu

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 18h

Good morning from the Hague, where we're awaiting EU ambassador Jorge Toledo's opening address of the Reconnect China conference.

Expecting some commentary on today's rare earths move from Beijing...

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 20h

Or a seller from Europe. From anywhere! Any weapon or piece of equipment to Ukraine with any Chinese rare earth in it will require Beijing's permission.

We've seen how slow they've been with approving these before, this could be a nightmare

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 20h

This could be really damaging. Just imagine Europe or Ukraine trying to buy a military item that contains a trace of a Chinese rare earth from a seller in the United States. Beijing would need to approve!

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 20h

Beijing will require any foreign entities exporting rare earth materials that are made in China to apply for a dual-use item export permit from the Ministry of Commerce, effective immediately, according to a separate notice from the ministry

www.scmp.com/economy/poli...

China unveils ‘major upgrade’ to rare earth controls ahead of Xi-Trump meeting

The wider restrictions will give Beijing greater leverage in coming negotiations with the US, analysts said.

www.scmp.com

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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 20h

Henry Gao as usual on the ball here to explain these controls

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