Finbarr Bermingham
@fbermingham.bsky.social
Senior Correspondent for Europe at the South China Morning Post.
Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics.
All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.
Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics.
All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.
Budapest in demand from the great powers...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Secretary Rubio’s Travel to Germany, Slovakia and Hungary - United States Department of State
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Germany from February 13-15 to participate in the 62nd Munich Security Conference. Secretary Rubio will then travel to Bratislava, Slovakia and Budapest, ...
www.state.gov
February 10, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Budapest in demand from the great powers...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Rubio going there post-Munich (along with Bratislava)
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Finance Minister Roland Lescure suggested 30% tariff is a no-goer
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
EU ‘mega tariff’: French minister urges caution amid calls for 30% China duty
Finance minister distances himself from French government agency’s proposal for blanket EU tariffs on China to stop ‘destruction’ of local industry.
www.scmp.com
February 10, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Finance Minister Roland Lescure suggested 30% tariff is a no-goer
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
China’s large trade surplus with Europe is “unsustainable”, but there's “one-size-fits-all answer” on tariffs and that Paris would need to continue engaging with Beijing to make changes.
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...
Full note here:
Germany’s “China Shock” Revisited
Over the past year, German political leaders, central bankers, business associations and unions have begun talking openly about the risks of a “China shock.” The rhetoric, however, has not been matched by decisive policy action.
rhg.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Full note here:
Not really a secret at this stage, I would say...
February 10, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Not really a secret at this stage, I would say...
Ah, I can see that Euronews already partnered with CGTN, including joint debates and material published by CGTN
www.euronews.com/search?query...
www.euronews.com/search?query...
search : euronews : the latest international news as video on demand
search | euronews : International and European news all available as video on demand
www.euronews.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Ah, I can see that Euronews already partnered with CGTN, including joint debates and material published by CGTN
www.euronews.com/search?query...
www.euronews.com/search?query...
At the same time, if I was a European EV maker I'd be looking at those sales and pricing numbers in China nervously - surely the export incentive is multiplied enormously
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
At the same time, if I was a European EV maker I'd be looking at those sales and pricing numbers in China nervously - surely the export incentive is multiplied enormously
Beijing and Chinese manufacturers now have a stronger need to keep the EU market open, precisely as Brussels is tightening trade defence tools
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Beijing and Chinese manufacturers now have a stronger need to keep the EU market open, precisely as Brussels is tightening trade defence tools
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
I'd say this gives EU some leverage in negotiations over investments, but also incentivises more price undertakings on the Chinese side
Interesting wrinkle here - Chinese EV makers are going to be looking hungrily to Europe this year
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
China’s turbocharged EV market hits a speed bump amid falling sales
After years at full throttle, China’s EV sector is slowing sharply, with sales sliding in January as tax breaks fade and costs rise.
www.scmp.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Interesting wrinkle here - Chinese EV makers are going to be looking hungrily to Europe this year
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
EV deliveries in China slumped over 40% in January
January saw average price cuts of 14.8% for EVs, exceeding the 10.5% average for the whole of 2025
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
Let's see if this can be used as a model for more undertakings.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Let's see if this can be used as a model for more undertakings.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
Beijing wanted the EU to do an MoU on this a few weeks ago, but Brussels rejected this and instead published the conditions under which price undertakings could be reached by individual companies.
In short: one highly conditional carve‑out.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
In short: one highly conditional carve‑out.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
VW gets a path around the full tariffs for one China‑built EV model - but only under strict minimum prices, quotas, single‑channel distribution, QR‑code monitoring, and EU investment commitments.
Crucially, if VW Anhui breaches the undertaking or the Commission withdraws it, the full definitive countervailing duty snaps back automatically.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Crucially, if VW Anhui breaches the undertaking or the Commission withdraws it, the full definitive countervailing duty snaps back automatically.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
Importers are warned they carry the trade risk: customs debts can arise later if invoices are invalidated.
Interesting given how it was spun as a huge deal by Beijing a few weeks ago:
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Interesting given how it was spun as a huge deal by Beijing a few weeks ago:
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
Beijing + CCCME objected, arguing EU shouldn't give individual deals & disclose more about the clauses
Commission rejected this, noting individual undertakings are allowed. VW was the only formal offer
On top of pricing, VW Anhui commits to significant BEV‑related investment projects in the EU – both finishing existing ones and starting new ones – with periodic reporting and consultation obligations on those investments.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
On top of pricing, VW Anhui commits to significant BEV‑related investment projects in the EU – both finishing existing ones and starting new ones – with periodic reporting and consultation obligations on those investments.
VW Anhui and SEAT also face heavy reporting: detailed export reports plus quarterly data on resales to first independent EU customers, allowing the Commission to check that all sales comply with the MIPs.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
VW Anhui and SEAT also face heavy reporting: detailed export reports plus quarterly data on resales to first independent EU customers, allowing the Commission to check that all sales comply with the MIPs.
Compliance is monitored transaction‑by‑transaction. Each export must be registered in a Commission system, which generates an alphanumerical code and QR code that customs can scan when the car is released into free circulation.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Compliance is monitored transaction‑by‑transaction. Each export must be registered in a Commission system, which generates an alphanumerical code and QR code that customs can scan when the car is released into free circulation.
The sales channel is locked down: exports to the EU have to go via specified channels, with SEAT as the sole related importer. SEAT must apply a uniform policy on resale prices and support payments, with full traceability for each vehicle, including fleet sales.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
The sales channel is locked down: exports to the EU have to go via specified channels, with SEAT as the sole related importer. SEAT must apply a uniform policy on resale prices and support payments, with full traceability for each vehicle, including fleet sales.
Because sales run through related companies in the EU, VW Anhui must adjust resale prices to include costs linked to selling and admin in each EU country, so that the effective transaction price still meets or exceeds the MIP.
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Because sales run through related companies in the EU, VW Anhui must adjust resale prices to include costs linked to selling and admin in each EU country, so that the effective transaction price still meets or exceeds the MIP.
Every car must respect a Minimum Import Price (MIP). The MIP is built from non‑subsidised cost data for a comparable VW BEV produced in the EU, plus a reasonable profit, adjusted for design, equipment and product type.
February 10, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Every car must respect a Minimum Import Price (MIP). The MIP is built from non‑subsidised cost data for a comparable VW BEV produced in the EU, plus a reasonable profit, adjusted for design, equipment and product type.
VW Anhui also commits not to sell any other vehicles – including plug‑in hybrids, hybrids or combustion cars – to SEAT. On top of that, there is an annual quota on how many Tavascans can enter the EU under this deal.
February 10, 2026 at 11:50 AM
VW Anhui also commits not to sell any other vehicles – including plug‑in hybrids, hybrids or combustion cars – to SEAT. On top of that, there is an annual quota on how many Tavascans can enter the EU under this deal.
Volkswagen (Anhui) and SEAT offered an undertaking limited to a single model: the CUPRA Tavascan, the only BEV VW Anhui produces in China for export to the EU. All exports must go only to SEAT.
February 10, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Volkswagen (Anhui) and SEAT offered an undertaking limited to a single model: the CUPRA Tavascan, the only BEV VW Anhui produces in China for export to the EU. All exports must go only to SEAT.
This follows the EU’s Oct 2024 countervailing duties on Chinese EVs, with rates between 7.8% and 35.3% on subsidised imports.
Full details here: eur-lex.europa.eu/le...
Full details here: eur-lex.europa.eu/le...
February 10, 2026 at 11:50 AM
This follows the EU’s Oct 2024 countervailing duties on Chinese EVs, with rates between 7.8% and 35.3% on subsidised imports.
Full details here: eur-lex.europa.eu/le...
Full details here: eur-lex.europa.eu/le...