Gesine Weber
@gesineweber.bsky.social
7.9K followers 720 following 1.5K posts
European security & defence, geopolitics, EU in US-China competition. Research Fellow at German Marshall Fund of the US (Paris). PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own. geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
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gesineweber.bsky.social
My take: a European defence industry fully "made in Europe" is illusional, but Europe has to step up its efforts to strengthen its own industry - in order to reduce dependence on other actors.
stiftunggenshagen.bsky.social
@gesineweber.bsky.social: „Eine europäische Verteidigungsindustrie vollständig „made in Europe“ ist […] illusorisch, aber die Europäer müssen ihre Anstrengungen zur Förderung ihrer eigenen Industrie verstärken, um […] ihre Abhängigkeit von anderen Akteuren zu verringern.“

👉 bit.ly/48SnGQQ
gesineweber.bsky.social
Yours truly with a new paper on European defence industry in a post-transatlantic future: www.stiftung-genshagen.de/fileadmin/Da...
www.stiftung-genshagen.de
gesineweber.bsky.social
It's the 8th of the month, so the new edition of my LinkedIn newsletter, PhD Positivity, is out - of course always with a matcha as cover image.

This time: balancing confidence and criticism

Check it out & share with PhD students or anyone who might benefit:

www.linkedin.com/pulse/starti...
Starting your project: the balance between confidence and criticism
Welcome (back) to PhD Positivity - Research and Writing with Balance and Flow, your regular dose of positive energy for academic writing or side projects. As the first weeks of back-to-school season a...
www.linkedin.com
gesineweber.bsky.social
Conservative primacy, deep engagement, liberal internationalism
gesineweber.bsky.social
This is *so* bad - especially because it's widely known that one of the key weaknesses of AI is accuracy with sources?! Btw also fails the other way around: I asked it to format my own articles into APA 6th based on a hyperlink and just got it with totally different authors...
gesineweber.bsky.social
Two of Germany's brightest minds on all things Europe. Congratulations!
gesineweber.bsky.social
Also, as a disclaimer: I've been following the implications of France's foreign policy for Europe/ security policy, and French foreign policy, for over five years, but not domestic politics (although you can't escape it living in France...). So take this as my opinion/ thoughts:
gesineweber.bsky.social
5) What if Macron steps back? It won't get better.

More rumours in this direction, but I personally think it's (now still) unlikely (but might change). But whoever comes next - it's safe to say that the person will be less pro-European sovereignty, pro-NATO (yes, read this again). Not good.
gesineweber.bsky.social
4) Inward-looking France is bad for EU

Like it or not, France has always been a "force de proposition", a country bringing in ideas, on the EU level, which often started necessary debates. Europe also works best with Franco-German engine. French initiatives & Franco-German leadership absent now.
gesineweber.bsky.social
3) A major window of opportunity for Europe is shrinking.

Following normal calendars, France, UK & GER should not have had elections before 2027 - which could have been a momentum for more ambitious co-leadership, especially on security/ defence. This window is shrinking and might be gone.
gesineweber.bsky.social
2) The domestic uncertainty harms France's credibility.

In theory, it could be France's moment now to shape European security and defence - also thanks to leadership in the past -, but domestic uncertainty raises questions about its trustworthiness. Inaction due to lack of trust = dangerous atm.
gesineweber.bsky.social
1) Political paralysis is hard to navigate for partners.

Uncertainties about interlocutors and priorities, not really possible to have important conversations or take decisions/ get things moving. Also uncertain when/ if things will get better. Collective wait-and-see and running out of patience.
gesineweber.bsky.social
If you understand German, this is a great podcast: why deep reading is so important and why AI summaries do *not* replace this skill (perhaps a no-brainer for many academics/ scholars):

podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/d...
Lange Texte lesen und verstehen – Wofür brauchen wir das noch?
Podcast Episode · Das Wissen | SWR · 14/09/2025 · 30m
podcasts.apple.com
gesineweber.bsky.social
This ultimately comes down to the EU's well-known dilemma: there are instruments which *could* be really effective, but the best instruments don't help you if you have no strategy for using them because you lack a definition of your interests and objectives.
gesineweber.bsky.social
"An anti-coercion instrument adopted two years ago was supposed to be the gun on the table to deter economic bullying, but it has done no such thing. EU has been shaken down for its lunch money by browbeaters from all sides this year & shown that it does not have the pain threshold to punch back."
fbermingham.bsky.social
Europe hunts for chokepoints it can weaponise against China in age of economic warfare

My report on the search for leverage against coercion from Beijing and Washington.

The elephant in the room: would it take for Brussels to act?
Europe hunts for chokepoints it can weaponise in a new age of economic warfare
Bureaucrats look for leverage against coercion from Beijing and Washington but what would it take for Brussels to act?
www.scmp.com
Reposted by Gesine Weber
sandertordoir.bsky.social
The SAFE instrument, whereby the EU level provides loans to member-states to ramp up defence, has been more of a success than I had anticipated. The uptake by member-states is huge.

And, of course, profoundly driven by the threat perception of Russia (see Baltics!).

Great chart from Daniel Kral.
gesineweber.bsky.social
Yep. Always good to see where EU was coming from...
maxbergmann.bsky.social
So much of the coverage of the EU is hyper-micro. It's all about the sausage making. So story out of Copenhagen European Council is "dithering," "all talk, no action," nothing fully agreed, etc. It's an effing meeting! Take a step back... they are moving on Eurobonds/frozen Russian assets. 1/