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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 4d

From now on, I will be focusing on LinkedIn for posting on social media. I'll still use this platform to observe what people are saying, but I will be posting exclusively on LinkedIn.

If you don't already follow me there, you can find me here:

www.linkedin.com/in/paul-poas...

www.linkedin.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 5d

President Donald Trump might not be crying for Argentina, but he does seem concerned about the future of the country’s economy.

In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how the potential "Trump bailout" is just another instance of this time NOT being different.

Trump’s Bailout of Argentina Is Not as Unusual as It Seems

The U.S. pledge to bail out Argentina’s economy may be due to Trump’s bond with Milei, but it’s not unprecedented.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 5d

IR Book of the Week!

"War and Power" by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Book argues that the focus on what makes nations "Great Powers" has led to a skewed our understanding of the true sources of power, particularly in the context of war.

War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why

War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why - Kindle edition by O'Brien, Phillips Payson. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why.

www.amazon.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 6d

I shared my thoughts on Trump's "Gaza Peace Plan" 👇

TL,DR: There are some real positives, but unclear it will be accepted, hold, or enforced.

Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will acce...

Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will accept t...

www.linkedin.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 7d

Additionally, there were a host of comments by Trump & Hegseth that are consistent with this recent @wpr.bsky.social column:

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/interstate-w...

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless

International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 7d

Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding the Hegseth/Trump speeches: TL,DR -- this was a big mistake by both.

My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not… | Pa...

My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not toler...

www.linkedin.com

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 8d

ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment."

My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 8d

ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment."

My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 8d

Trump's UN speech was rooted in “an American First foreign policy” and Trump's own vision of the US as the "indispensable nation".

That is the thought I shared with @salon.com for this piece

www.salon.com/2025/09/27/a...

An Ugly American berates the United Nations — and shames the rest of us

Trump's angry speech before the General Assembly was "coarse absurdist theater"

www.salon.com

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 9d

Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation.

You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...

Fracturing of Democratic Institutions & the Variations of Autocracy

Join Carnegie Council virtually for a Global Ethics Day event discussing the challenges democracies face and the implications of democratic backsliding.

info.carnegiecouncil.org

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 9d

Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation.

You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...

Fracturing of Democratic Institutions & the Variations of Autocracy

Join Carnegie Council virtually for a Global Ethics Day event discussing the challenges democracies face and the implications of democratic backsliding.

info.carnegiecouncil.org

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10d

Very true! As I wrote last year, always a worrying sign when a bunch of alliance pacts are forming at once

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/russia-nato-...

A Rush to Form Alliances Is Always a Bad Sign

With a consolidation of competing alliance blocs, the world is entering a perilous time. It may only get worse.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10d

Here is the column

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-article...

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10d

The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12d

Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12d

Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 13d

IR Book of the Week!

"AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex

Amazon.com: AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex: 9780691265148: King, Anthony: Books

www.amazon.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 13d

IR Book of the Week!

"AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex

Amazon.com: AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex: 9780691265148: King, Anthony: Books

www.amazon.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 14d

I don't mean it in a braggadocious way, but I wrote about how prediction is hard...especially when it comes to world politics. Contrary to Trump's claims, you can't be right about everything.

Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Click on the article title to read more.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 15d

Glad I could contribute to this forum on the relevance of the UN after 80 years. I see the UN -- specifically the UNSC -- as largely successful because, "The original purpose of the Security Council was to prevent war between the great powers, not to prevent the great powers from waging war."

Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 15d

As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...

The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant?

From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.

globalaffairs.org

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 15d

As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...

The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant?

From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.

globalaffairs.org

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 15d

Multilateralism is facing serious challenges. Ian Hurd and Juliet Sorensen join @profpaulpoast.bsky.social to discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the UN's 80th anniversary.

📹 : brnw.ch/21wW01K

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Reposted by Paul Poast

Craig Kafura @ckafura.bsky.social · 15d

Marking #UN80 @global-affairs.bsky.social with a great panel on internationalism and intl institutions, feat. @profpaulpoast.bsky.social, @ianhurd.bsky.social, and Juliet Sorensen

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 16d

ICYMI: in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I discuss how an embrace and even enthusiasm for using violence abroad inevitably links back to violence at home.

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless

International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 16d

With Britain, Canada, and Australia officially recognizing Palestine as a state, I'm re-upping this recent @wpr.bsky.social piece on the topic. Some worry that this recognition rewards Hamas. It's not clear to me how that is the case, since the recognition is conditional on Hamas not being in power.

Recognizing Palestinian Statehood Isn’t Just Political Theater

France, the U.K. and Canada are all prepared to recognize the state of Palestine. What does that actually mean in international relations?

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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