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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 1d

Why most polls overstate support for political violence
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

Why most polls overstate support for political violence

Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.

www.gelliottmorris.com

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Leah McElrath @leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 4d

New poll of Jewish Americans:

• 61% say Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza.
• 39% say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Gift link:
wapo.st/42q0h5z

Many American Jews sharply critical of Israel on Gaza, Post poll finds

Most Jews say Israel is committing war crimes — and 39 percent say genocide — while often distinguishing between the country and its leadership.

wapo.st

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Lynda Lopez @lyndab08.bsky.social · 5d

I’m so struck by this video. A regular day in Logan Square in front of a grocery store and ICE pulls up and tear gassed people. Funston Elementary School is right across the street as well. This is a major corridor in Logan Sq. No concern for human safety

Video from: www.reddit.com/r/chicago/co...

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Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 6d

starting a rumor that all the on-screen text in Bluey is Aurebesh

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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 6d

The latest from YouGov (n ~ 2.9k): Each side is getting at least some flak for the shutdown, but narrowly the most goes to the GOP

Party "somewhat/very responsible" -- a 59-59-59 tie for Trump, House GOP, House Dems

Party is "Very responsible" -- Trump at 45, House GOP at 43, House Dems at 36

YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 6d

Oct 2 poll of 2,890 U.S. adults (+/-2.6%)
% of U.S. adults who say the following are very responsible for causing the shutdown
Donald Trump 45%
Congressional Republicans 43%
Congressional Democrats 36%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...

YouGov survey results by political party for the question, How responsible do you think Donald Trump is for causing the government shutdown?

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Craig Kafura @ckafura.bsky.social · 6d

Had a meeting the other month with a delegation from China that was here to discuss US-China ag issues. They were quite clear: the soybean purchases ended because of the fentanyl tariffs.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d

Bessent on China: "At the meeting in Geneva when I asked them, 'Why didn't you continue buying soybeans and the other products' then had one word, and guess what it was? Biden."

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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 6d

This is a flagrant and egregious violation of our Constitution.

Lawmakers with integrity and honor would exercise their constitutional power to immediately halt this lawless rampage and carry out an investigation into how it happened.

Soren Spicknall @sorenspicknall.bsky.social · 7d

"Rodrick Johnson, 67, is one of many residents who were detained by federal agents during the South Shore raid. A U.S. citizen, he said agents broke through his door and dragged him out in zip ties."

Massive immigration raid on Chicago apartment building leaves residents reeling: 'I feel defeated'

The Department of Homeland Security said federal agents with Border Patrol, the FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives arrested 37 people in the raid.

chicago.suntimes.com

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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 6d

% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society

22% in 2022
47% in 2025

No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.

Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society and sports

Today, 43% of U.S. adults say the fact that sports betting is now legal in much of the country is a bad thing for society, up from 34% in 2022.

www.pewresearch.org

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Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · 7d

Ideology of candidates surely has an effect of some size. So when it varies, it matters. It is a smart strategy to run congressional candidates who fit their states/districts. But for president, people perceive all Repub and all Dem nominees essentially the same, except for Trump in 2016.

Chart from CES of ideological perceptions of presidential candidates

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 8d

As the Trump administration continues to deploy National Guard forces to US cities, Chicago Council polling finds the American public largely opposes using the US military for domestic law enforcement, to suppress protests, and to control immigration.

More analysis ➡️ brnw.ch/21wWeoq

bar chart showing US views on using US forces domestically

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Risa Brooks @risabrooks12.bsky.social · 8d

It's easy to see this speech as just weirdly performative, but there's a lot more—and a lot worse—going on here.

The meeting & speeches are part of a larger project aimed at promoting the military leadership’s partisan alignment with the administration.

How? 1/

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 8d

Hegseth: "If the words I'm speaking today are making your heart sink, they you should do the honorable thing and resign."

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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 8d

The team at ChinaFile asked eight of us to assess the state of play in US-China relations and who has the upper hand in the ongoing negotiations. I think it's pretty clear.

Beijing is showing its capabilities and biding its time. And it's working.

www.chinafile.com/conversation...

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Guy Trivago @convolutedname.bsky.social · 9d

Man some of the bits here, really just everyone doing whatever. You have literally one part of the US Gov engaging in direct negotiations for normalization while the other wants to remove them. All at the same time.

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Secretary of Defense Rock @sodrock.bsky.social · 9d

This coming out the same day Lutnick is on the record saying that the United States won’t defend Taiwan unless they move 50% of chip production to America shows how everyone in the administration is just out running their own foreign policies in their fiefdoms

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 9d

Exclusive: The Pentagon, alarmed at the low weapons stockpiles the U.S. would have on hand for a potential future conflict with China, is urging its missile suppliers to double or even quadruple production rates on a breakneck schedule.

Exclusive | Pentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict

U.S. military leaders are urging defense contractors to increase assembly of 12 critical weapons.

on.wsj.com

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 9d

fun fact that while trump v. us says that the president cannot be held criminally liable for using his core powers, this does not extend to his officers

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 9d

yeah they're just murdering random people on these boats

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 9d

I think the Trump admin assumed no one would try to find out who the people on the boats they blew up really were

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The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · 9d

China is set to launch a new visa program aimed at attracting foreign tech talent, as a new U.S. visa policy prompts would-be applicants to scramble for alternatives.

China's new K visa beckons foreign tech talent as U.S. hikes H-1B fee

The K visa targets young foreign science, technology, engineering and mathematics graduates and promises to allow entry, residence and employment without a job offer.

ebx.sh

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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 10d

Americans are concerned about crime but don't broadly support President Trump's deployment of the National Guard to police U.S. cities according to a new NPR-Ipsos law enforcement poll.
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250928

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 12d

Can guarantee this will be the best combined source for a) some fascinating and underexplored public opinion research and b) wildly adorable little animations you will click on today

Jenn Agiesta @jennagiesta.bsky.social · 12d

Check out our new CNN poll deep dive into who political independents are, how they engage with politics and what they think about the current political moment. The classic swing voter appears to be a thing of the past. www.cnn.com/interactive/...

What does an independent mean in politics?

New CNN poll results identify five distinct types of independents.

www.cnn.com

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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 12d

Vote on UNSCR 2231 extension:
4 in favor
9 against
2 abstentions

Snapback is happening. All pre-JCPOA UN sanctions on Iran will be reinstated at 00:00 GMT tomorrow.

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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 13d

Great article by @deenamousa.com on why AI hasn't replaced radiologists. If anything, demand for them has actually risen.

www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-ai-isn...

Three things explain this. First, while models beat humans on benchmarks, the standardized tests designed to measure AI performance, they struggle to replicate this performance in hospital conditions. Most tools can only diagnose abnormalities that are common in training data, and models often don’t work as well outside of their test conditions. Second, attempts to give models more tasks have run into legal hurdles: regulators and medical insurers so far are reluctant to approve or cover fully autonomous radiology models. Third, even when they do diagnose accurately, models replace only a small share of a radiologist’s job. Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activities, like talking to patients and fellow clinicians.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly spreading across the economy and society. But radiology shows us that it will not necessarily dominate every field in its first years of diffusion — at least until these common hurdles are overcome. Exploiting all of its benefits will involve adapting it to society, and society’s rules to it.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 13d

I feel like I occasionally need to remind people who post frequently about politics on here that the NYT focus group people probably have more individually idiosyncratic ideologies than you do, but in terms of political attention/engagement, it is very much you and not them who's the weird one.

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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 13d

NEW from @pewresearch.org: 20% of US adults now regularly get news from TikTok, up from 3% in 2020.

Among the youngest adults, 43% now regularly get news there, up from 9% in 2020.

Full analysis: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Bar chart showing that a growing percentage of U.S. adults, especially young adults, regularly get news on TikTok. The chart is based on Pew Research Center surveys conducted between 2020 and 2025.

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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 15d

Majority of Americans Favor Making Decisions Through the UN, Even at the Cost of Compromise.
(@ckafura.bsky.social @global-affairs.bsky.social)
globalaffairs.org/research/pub...

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 15d

As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...

The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant?

From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.

globalaffairs.org

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