Dr. Jonathan Wall
@jonwx.bsky.social
@_jwall on X. Forecaster of sorts since ‘08. Looking forward to the next one.
The key to the big system ~1/11 is the Baja ULL that the Euro & UKMET both kick out SW. It spins off Baja, missing phase w/ the northern stream, leaving the SE dry. GFS along with the KMA, eject this ULL east, phasing with the N/S near TX on ~1/9 bringing the greater SE a snowstorm.
January 2, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The key to the big system ~1/11 is the Baja ULL that the Euro & UKMET both kick out SW. It spins off Baja, missing phase w/ the northern stream, leaving the SE dry. GFS along with the KMA, eject this ULL east, phasing with the N/S near TX on ~1/9 bringing the greater SE a snowstorm.
Some buzz about the GFS this morning, but temper expectations. Northern stream dominant storm with the energy over the Ohio valley in this gif, trough axis is too far east. Decent block over Greenland, however, which is what we need. Storm signal not on ensembles yet. s13.gifyu.com/images/SGoK6...
November 30, 2024 at 4:03 PM
Some buzz about the GFS this morning, but temper expectations. Northern stream dominant storm with the energy over the Ohio valley in this gif, trough axis is too far east. Decent block over Greenland, however, which is what we need. Storm signal not on ensembles yet. s13.gifyu.com/images/SGoK6...
Snowfall maps on long range modeling is my bat signal, it’s time… Won’t be hard to beat the snowfall from last winter — 0.0” at RDU. What if I told you historically, weak La Niñas beat out 𝘢𝘭𝘭 El Niños for snowfall at RDU? Let’s do this.
November 19, 2024 at 3:21 PM
Snowfall maps on long range modeling is my bat signal, it’s time… Won’t be hard to beat the snowfall from last winter — 0.0” at RDU. What if I told you historically, weak La Niñas beat out 𝘢𝘭𝘭 El Niños for snowfall at RDU? Let’s do this.