Josh McCrain
@joshmccrain.bsky.social
2.9K followers 430 following 620 posts
Political scientist at the University of Utah. Public policy, political institutions, media and politics
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joshmccrain.bsky.social
well see you interpret the coefficient on B_1 by simultaneously holding fixed the lagged outcome and lagged treatment, but also some lagged covar--*head exploads*
joshmccrain.bsky.social
if this is what your DAG is looking like i'm not sure you should be using panel data lol
joshmccrain.bsky.social
it is actually wild how analogous this op-ed is to one a police officer in a major city could write
joshmccrain.bsky.social
police 🤝academics
emayfarris.bsky.social
This new column by @tressiemcphd.bsky.social makes me think about when I recently had to talk to the police for yet another safety plan, I tried to “lighten” the mood by saying that we all knew this wasn’t my first rodeo. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/o...
For at least the past 15 years, my colleagues in academia have grappled with angry letters to university officials for doing their jobs. They have weathered campaigns for their firing. They have contended with an internet army obsessed with doxxing them, their parents, their kids. I’ve been contacted by the F.B.I. more than once in my career. Not because I hold any important state secrets or know a biker gang but because one of my colleagues has lived with so much sustained harassment from right-wing “activists” that it has become a matter of federal concern. Watch lists (one of which was constructed by Kirk’s organization) do not distinguish between public intellectuals at wealthy enclaves and hoi polloi who teach popular classes at cash-strapped schools. In either case, an army of trained provocateurs stands ready to destroy their lives to prove their bona fides as conservative activists.
joshmccrain.bsky.social
Update on this ad: this position will not be the managing editor of PRQ. You will have no formal editorial responsibilities. You just have to go to a couple meetings every year. Trying to get the ad changed.
joshmccrain.bsky.social
The University of Utah Department of Political Science is hiring a department chair at the rank of Full Professor! This job is open to any subfield.

Let me know if you have questions about the search, including (as you likely are wondering) why we are hiring an external chair.
joshmccrain.bsky.social
Ok it's not managing editor at all. Like chair of the editorial board but no editing responsibility. Will work on getting the ad changed
joshmccrain.bsky.social
sorry, why is this bad? seems pretty helpful
joshmccrain.bsky.social
huge if true
jonbois.bsky.social
i don't mean to single out baseball fans here, because you see this in lots of fan communities, but in certain corners people talk as though baseball is real. they think all the players are real people and the stadiums are places you can actually visit. to each their own, but that cannot be healthy
joshmccrain.bsky.social
trying to get an answer to this, we don't currently have this editorship so idk
joshmccrain.bsky.social
Deadline extended! Still time to get your submissions into legislative politics section!
joshmccrain.bsky.social
The @wpsa.bsky.social 2026 annual meeting submission deadline is soon. Reminder: it's in San Diego! In April!

I'm the section chair for legislative politics, please submit your papers. Also, this is a great conference for graduate students!

www.wpsanet.org/meeting/
Reposted by Josh McCrain
joshmccrain.bsky.social
The University of Utah Department of Political Science is hiring a department chair at the rank of Full Professor! This job is open to any subfield.

Let me know if you have questions about the search, including (as you likely are wondering) why we are hiring an external chair.
joshmccrain.bsky.social
i wish AJPS would stop boycotting my papers
reuning.bsky.social
I don't know why but something feels off with calling this a boycott.
NYT headline: Local TV Giant Sinclair Ends Jimmy Kimmel Boycott

The company is one of two that has been pre-empting Mr. Kimmel’s show since he returned this week.
joshmccrain.bsky.social
sociologists have discovered the people prefer romantic relationships with people who agree with them (this paper is doing numbers on reddit)

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
joshmccrain.bsky.social
you do not in fact gotta hand it to Sinclair
Reposted by Josh McCrain
andrew.heiss.phd
Just posted an updated/revised version of this “Statistical Methods in Public Policy Research” chapter, now under review post-R&R 🤞

I'm kinda partial and unbiased here, but I really really like this piece!

HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/
SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Statistical Methods in Public Policy Research
Chapter for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia on Public Policy

This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. The essay traces the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. It then outlines three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers ask what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, the essay examines key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. The discussion then considers critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. The conclusion identifies some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethi… Table of contents
Introduction
1 Brief History of Statistics in Public Policy
2 Core Methodological Approaches
2.1 Description
2.2 Explanation
2.2.1 Estimation, Inference, and Hypothesis Testing
2.2.2 Causal Attribution and Causal Inference
2.3 Prediction
3 The Pitfalls of Counting, Gathering, and Learning from Public Data
4 Future Directions
Further Reading
References
joshmccrain.bsky.social
Look Jon I can make up words too
joshmccrain.bsky.social
Seems more complicated than scotch
joshmccrain.bsky.social
for a decade at least yes
joshmccrain.bsky.social
is this like a discontinuity thing
joshmccrain.bsky.social
36 here i still have much of my life in front of me
joshmccrain.bsky.social
While the position is going to be Full, we are very open to hiring associates with the appropriate record
joshmccrain.bsky.social
good vibes. also lol i just pinged you on slack about this